Value
8.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
EVLV · Why this verdict
Why Evolv Technologies Holdings, In (EVLV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 2.6, below the 4.0 minimum, with free cash flow at -4% of revenue and ROE, ROA, operating and net margins all scoring 0.0. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should approach breakeven and quality rise above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe cash burn of 4% of revenue is modest and shrinking as revenue scales, and EPS loss has narrowed to -$0.02 per quarter. | ||
Revenue grew from $32.5M to $43.8M year over year in the June 2026 quarter, consistent with strong growth of 34% YoY. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should exceed $45.6M next quarter and keep YoY growth above 20%. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue slipped from $46.3M to $43.8M quarter over quarter, so growth may already be stalling. | ||
Production depends on a single contract manufacturer, Columbia Tech, flagged as a high concentration risk. Bear case | Supply should run without disruption and gross margin score stay at or above 6.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOutsourced manufacturing keeps the business capital-light and a supplier can be replaced, so the risk may be overstated. | ||
Analyst target of $8.57 sits 85.5% above the $4.62 price against 13.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 6.58. Upside pct | Price should close part of the gap toward $8.57 as growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target is dampened and may be stale, and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a 200-day average slope of -5.3% over 30 days. | ||
Quality scores 2.6, below the 4.0 minimum, with free cash flow at -4% of revenue and ROE, ROA, operating and net margins all scoring 0.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should approach breakeven and quality rise above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterThe cash burn of 4% of revenue is modest and shrinking as revenue scales, and EPS loss has narrowed to -$0.02 per quarter.
Revenue grew from $32.5M to $43.8M year over year in the June 2026 quarter, consistent with strong growth of 34% YoY.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should exceed $45.6M next quarter and keep YoY growth above 20%.
CounterRevenue slipped from $46.3M to $43.8M quarter over quarter, so growth may already be stalling.
Production depends on a single contract manufacturer, Columbia Tech, flagged as a high concentration risk.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Supply should run without disruption and gross margin score stay at or above 6.0.
CounterOutsourced manufacturing keeps the business capital-light and a supplier can be replaced, so the risk may be overstated.
Analyst target of $8.57 sits 85.5% above the $4.62 price against 13.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 6.58.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap toward $8.57 as growth continues.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target is dampened and may be stale, and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a 200-day average slope of -5.3% over 30 days.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -4% of revenue
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 34% YoY
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 107%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $154,925 (0.018% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.9 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
0.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 0.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 2.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.2 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 102%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.1>=5.0 recovering
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
5.34
Upside
+80.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 5.34.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.2, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 0.9, Quality at 2.6, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $40M in any quarter.
- P2Cash Burn Low Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow burn exceeds 10% of revenue.
- P3Contract Manufacturer Dependence
Trip ifGross margin score falls below 4.0 from the current 6.0.
- P4Analyst Upside Asymmetry
Trip ifShare price drops to $4.30 or lower, the stop-loss level, from the current $4.62.