Value
7.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.4 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
EVLV · Why this verdict
Why Evolv Technologies Holdings, In (EVLV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality has breached the engine's minimum floor at 3.0 out of 10 against the 4.0 threshold, driven by zero ROE, ROA, operating margin, and net margin, triggering an exit recommendation. Warnings | Quality score should remain below the 4.0 floor as long as the company posts zero operating and net margins. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company is FCF-positive with a 7% FCF margin even with GAAP profitability near zero, and a Piotroski F-Score of 6.7 out of 9 is moderate rather than weak, suggesting the quality picture may be better than the flagged floor breach implies. | ||
Evolv shows a favorable risk/reward asymmetry of 2.53, with 37.9% modeled upside to target against 15.0% downside to stop, clearing the engine's 1.5 asymmetry gate. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should remain above 1.5 as long as the gap between analyst target and current price persists. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock remains below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend, so a favorable modeled asymmetry doesn't guarantee the price actually moves toward the target rather than continuing to grind lower. | ||
Momentum shows a confirmed downtrend, with price below the 200-day moving average and a 30-day moving-average slope of -4.1%, though on-balance volume is rising and the engine classifies the setup as recovering. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should climb further above the 5.5 gate as the recovery matures, alongside a return above the 200-day moving average. | →Stable |
| CounterA death cross paired with price still below the 200-day moving average means the longer-term trend remains bearish regardless of the near-term recovery label. | ||
Evolv is flagged as an industry growth leader, with revenue growth of 45% year-over-year driving a perfect growth score of 10 out of 10. Peer-rank breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 25% YoY over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth-dimension confidence is only 0.33, and value and quality peer-ranks are both at the bottom of the peer set, so the growth leadership may be masking weak unit economics behind the top-line expansion. | ||
Insiders have sold a notable $2.27 million, 0.20% of market cap, over the past 90 days across 5 transactions with zero offsetting buys, flagged as moderate-severity selling by the engine. Insider breakdown | Insider selling severity should stay at or below moderate as long as selling remains modest relative to market cap. | →Stable |
| CounterAt just 0.20% of market cap, this level of selling is relatively small and could reflect routine diversification rather than a meaningfully negative insider view. | ||
Quality has breached the engine's minimum floor at 3.0 out of 10 against the 4.0 threshold, driven by zero ROE, ROA, operating margin, and net margin, triggering an exit recommendation.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score should remain below the 4.0 floor as long as the company posts zero operating and net margins.
CounterThe company is FCF-positive with a 7% FCF margin even with GAAP profitability near zero, and a Piotroski F-Score of 6.7 out of 9 is moderate rather than weak, suggesting the quality picture may be better than the flagged floor breach implies.
Evolv shows a favorable risk/reward asymmetry of 2.53, with 37.9% modeled upside to target against 15.0% downside to stop, clearing the engine's 1.5 asymmetry gate.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should remain above 1.5 as long as the gap between analyst target and current price persists.
CounterThe stock remains below its 200-day moving average in a confirmed downtrend, so a favorable modeled asymmetry doesn't guarantee the price actually moves toward the target rather than continuing to grind lower.
Momentum shows a confirmed downtrend, with price below the 200-day moving average and a 30-day moving-average slope of -4.1%, though on-balance volume is rising and the engine classifies the setup as recovering.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should climb further above the 5.5 gate as the recovery matures, alongside a return above the 200-day moving average.
CounterA death cross paired with price still below the 200-day moving average means the longer-term trend remains bearish regardless of the near-term recovery label.
Evolv is flagged as an industry growth leader, with revenue growth of 45% year-over-year driving a perfect growth score of 10 out of 10.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 25% YoY over the next four quarters.
CounterGrowth-dimension confidence is only 0.33, and value and quality peer-ranks are both at the bottom of the peer set, so the growth leadership may be masking weak unit economics behind the top-line expansion.
Insiders have sold a notable $2.27 million, 0.20% of market cap, over the past 90 days across 5 transactions with zero offsetting buys, flagged as moderate-severity selling by the engine.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling severity should stay at or below moderate as long as selling remains modest relative to market cap.
CounterAt just 0.20% of market cap, this level of selling is relatively small and could reflect routine diversification rather than a meaningfully negative insider view.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Evolv Technologies combines industry-leading revenue growth with a favorable risk/reward asymmetry, but a quality-floor breach, a still-below-200-day-MA downtrend, and notable insider selling temper the setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.3 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 7%, FCF yield 0.9%)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 45% YoY
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 67%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,265,515 (0.197% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 4.1 |
| 52w position | 3.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.3 |
| beta | 4.1 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.62
- ▸High IV: 72%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.20%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
2.90
Upside
+42.3%
Downside
14.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.77>1.3, MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.6, and Catalyst at 7.4; the weakest are Quality at 3.0, Momentum at 3.7, and Peer rank at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.90 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth And Favorable Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.5 from the current 2.53.
- P2Quality Floor Breach
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 3.0, clearing the floor.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Recovering
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from the current 5.7, reversing the recovery.
- P4Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 45%.
- P5Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 1% of market cap over the next 90-day window, escalating severity to extreme.