Value
7.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
- ▸Attractively valued
EVH · Why this verdict
Why Evolent Health (EVH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Evolent Health shows strong revenue growth (47% YoY) and a recent earnings recovery, but near-zero margins, a 1.7 quality score, a 50% drawdown and only 4.2% upside to the analyst target leave a poor reward-to-risk of 0.28.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 1.7, below the 4.0 minimum, with ROE, ROA and all margins scoring 0.0 and no competitive moat. Bear case | Operating and net margin scores should move above zero and the quality score above 4.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThin margins are common during a turnaround, and a P/S score of 10.0 and growth leadership suggest margins could expand with scale. | ||
Revenue jumped to $652.5M in the June 2026 quarter from $444.3M a year earlier, consistent with strong growth of 47% YoY. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should hold above $650M and approach the $727M estimate for next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue fell from $646.5M to $444.3M between late 2024 and mid-2025, so this may be a recovery to prior levels rather than new growth. | ||
EPS has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, moving from -$0.02 in May 2026 to $0.02 in August 2026. Catalyst breakdown | EPS should stay positive and beat estimates in the next two quarterly reports. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEarlier quarters were a string of misses (4 of the prior 5), and EPS of $0.02 is tiny, so the beats may reflect low bars. | ||
Price of $4.80 is only 4.2% below the $5.00 analyst target while downside is 15.0%, giving reward-to-risk of 0.28. Upside pct | Analyst target should be raised above $6.00 or price pull back toward $4.00 to restore asymmetry. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag a fast-moving turnaround, and the stock sits 50% below its 52-week high, so rerating could exceed the target. | ||
Quality scores 1.7, below the 4.0 minimum, with ROE, ROA and all margins scoring 0.0 and no competitive moat.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Operating and net margin scores should move above zero and the quality score above 4.0.
CounterThin margins are common during a turnaround, and a P/S score of 10.0 and growth leadership suggest margins could expand with scale.
Revenue jumped to $652.5M in the June 2026 quarter from $444.3M a year earlier, consistent with strong growth of 47% YoY.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should hold above $650M and approach the $727M estimate for next quarter.
CounterRevenue fell from $646.5M to $444.3M between late 2024 and mid-2025, so this may be a recovery to prior levels rather than new growth.
EPS has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, moving from -$0.02 in May 2026 to $0.02 in August 2026.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS should stay positive and beat estimates in the next two quarterly reports.
CounterEarlier quarters were a string of misses (4 of the prior 5), and EPS of $0.02 is tiny, so the beats may reflect low bars.
Price of $4.80 is only 4.2% below the $5.00 analyst target while downside is 15.0%, giving reward-to-risk of 0.28.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst target should be raised above $6.00 or price pull back toward $4.00 to restore asymmetry.
CounterAnalyst targets lag a fast-moving turnaround, and the stock sits 50% below its 52-week high, so rerating could exceed the target.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 47% YoY
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
| erm sentiment | 4.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $329,460 (0.067% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.5 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 8.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.7 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 2.5 |
- ▸High IV: 102%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.04
Upside
+15.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -55% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.1<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.04.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Quality at 1.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1, and Technical at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Rebound
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $500M in any quarter.
- P2Earnings Turnaround Streak
Trip ifQuarterly EPS falls below $0.00 in any 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Weak Profitability Quality
Trip ifQuality score stays below 4.0 after 4 more quarterly reports.
- P4Limited Upside To Target
Trip ifShare price rises above $5.00, the analyst target, making upside less than 0%.