Value
7.9/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
EVC · Why this verdict
Why Entravision Communications (EVC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Entravision is growing revenue rapidly (126% YoY) with excellent cash conversion, but heavy segment concentration, extreme short interest and options skew, and a deep drawdown make it a speculative position the engine says to avoid.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is scaling fast: quarterly revenue reached $227.9M in the June 2026 quarter versus $100.7M a year earlier, consistent with strong growth of 126% YoY. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should stay above $200M with YoY growth above 50% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth is concentrated in one acquired ad-tech segment, and the same data shows a negative derived Q4 2023 revenue figure, so the comparison base is noisy. | ||
The ATS segment makes up 61.0% of revenue, so results hinge on a single product line with no competitive moat. Bear case | ATS share of revenue should fall below 55% as other segments grow. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA dominant segment can also be the fastest-growing and most profitable one, so concentration may reflect success rather than fragility. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 1000% FCF/NI and valuation is flagged as attractive, with a 3.2% dividend. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should remain positive and the dividend be maintained through the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF/NI of 1000% reflects a near-zero net income denominator (net margin score 0.3), not strong cash generation, and the dividend may be cut. | ||
Positioning and trend are hostile: short interest of 16%, put/call ratio of 3.88, implied volatility of 128%, RSI 24 below the 200-day average, and a 54% drawdown. Key risks | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 from 2.8 and short interest fall below 12%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 200-day average is still rising about 10.6% over 30 days and institutions are accumulating, so this may be a pullback within an uptrend and a crowded short could squeeze. | ||
Revenue is scaling fast: quarterly revenue reached $227.9M in the June 2026 quarter versus $100.7M a year earlier, consistent with strong growth of 126% YoY.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay above $200M with YoY growth above 50% over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth is concentrated in one acquired ad-tech segment, and the same data shows a negative derived Q4 2023 revenue figure, so the comparison base is noisy.
The ATS segment makes up 61.0% of revenue, so results hinge on a single product line with no competitive moat.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- ATS share of revenue should fall below 55% as other segments grow.
CounterA dominant segment can also be the fastest-growing and most profitable one, so concentration may reflect success rather than fragility.
Cash conversion is excellent at 1000% FCF/NI and valuation is flagged as attractive, with a 3.2% dividend.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should remain positive and the dividend be maintained through the next four quarters.
CounterFCF/NI of 1000% reflects a near-zero net income denominator (net margin score 0.3), not strong cash generation, and the dividend may be cut.
Positioning and trend are hostile: short interest of 16%, put/call ratio of 3.88, implied volatility of 128%, RSI 24 below the 200-day average, and a 54% drawdown.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 from 2.8 and short interest fall below 12%.
CounterThe 200-day average is still rising about 10.6% over 30 days and institutions are accumulating, so this may be a pullback within an uptrend and a crowded short could squeeze.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.9 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 1.1 |
| Op margin | 5.3 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 126% YoY
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+9.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 9.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $293,965 (0.052% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 3.0 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.7 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 0.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.2 |
| debt equity | 2.5 |
- ▸High short interest: 17%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.00
- ▸High IV: 133%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
- ▸Dividend: 3.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (3)
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -55% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.5<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.9, and Insider at 6.2; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.6, Momentum at 3.5, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $200M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Segment Concentration Risk
Trip ifATS segment share of revenue exceeds 70%.
- P3Cash Conversion Attractive Value
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below $0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Bearish Positioning And Downtrend
Trip ifShare price drops to $5.88 or lower, the stop-loss level, from the current $6.23.