Value
4.5/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
EVC · Why this verdict
Why Entravision Communications (EVC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality has breached the engine's minimum floor at 2.7 out of 10 against the 4.0 threshold, triggering an exit recommendation, reflected in near-zero ROE and net margin. Warnings | Quality score should remain below the 4.0 floor as long as margins stay compressed. | →Stable |
| CounterAdvertising-agency revenue can be highly seasonal and event-driven, so a temporarily weak margin quarter may not represent a durable quality deterioration. | ||
Insider selling has triggered the engine's most severe classification, with insiders selling $39.1 million, 3.25% of market cap, over the past 90 days across 14 sell transactions and zero buys, failing the engine's insider gate outright. Warnings | Insider selling severity should de-escalate from extreme as selling activity slows. | →Stable |
| CounterBroad-based, non-C-level selling across many small transactions could reflect routine employee equity-compensation vesting rather than a concentrated negative signal. | ||
Revenue growth is extremely strong at 114% year-over-year, per the engine's growth notes, and the peer-rank flags the company as an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY as long as the current growth driver persists. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth-dimension confidence is only 0.33, and such an extreme YoY growth rate could reflect a low prior-year comparison base rather than durable organic acceleration. | ||
Options positioning is notably bearish or hedged, with an elevated put/call ratio of 3.50 and implied volatility of 104%, both flagged as key risks. Key risks | The put/call ratio should decline toward 1.0 or below if bearish hedging pressure eases. | →Stable |
| CounterA put/call ratio this high can also reflect heavy covered-call or protective-put hedging by long holders around an earnings event, rather than a purely bearish directional bet. | ||
Quality has breached the engine's minimum floor at 2.7 out of 10 against the 4.0 threshold, triggering an exit recommendation, reflected in near-zero ROE and net margin.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score should remain below the 4.0 floor as long as margins stay compressed.
CounterAdvertising-agency revenue can be highly seasonal and event-driven, so a temporarily weak margin quarter may not represent a durable quality deterioration.
Insider selling has triggered the engine's most severe classification, with insiders selling $39.1 million, 3.25% of market cap, over the past 90 days across 14 sell transactions and zero buys, failing the engine's insider gate outright.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Insider selling severity should de-escalate from extreme as selling activity slows.
CounterBroad-based, non-C-level selling across many small transactions could reflect routine employee equity-compensation vesting rather than a concentrated negative signal.
Revenue growth is extremely strong at 114% year-over-year, per the engine's growth notes, and the peer-rank flags the company as an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY as long as the current growth driver persists.
CounterGrowth-dimension confidence is only 0.33, and such an extreme YoY growth rate could reflect a low prior-year comparison base rather than durable organic acceleration.
Options positioning is notably bearish or hedged, with an elevated put/call ratio of 3.50 and implied volatility of 104%, both flagged as key risks.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should decline toward 1.0 or below if bearish hedging pressure eases.
CounterA put/call ratio this high can also reflect heavy covered-call or protective-put hedging by long holders around an earnings event, rather than a purely bearish directional bet.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Entravision is posting explosive revenue growth and an industry-leading growth rank, but a quality-floor breach, extreme insider selling, and elevated bearish options positioning drive the engine's exit recommendation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 1.1 |
| Op margin | 4.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 114% YoY
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.3 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $39,071,182 (3.374% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 1.3 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.4 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.3 |
| debt equity | 1.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 7.00
- ▸High IV: 96%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (4)
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- INSIDER:3.37%=EXTREME
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.72>1.3, MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 5.5, and Sentiment at 5.0; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.6, Quality at 2.7, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Floor Breach
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.7, clearing the floor.
- P2Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percentage of market cap falls below 0.5% over the next 90-day window, down from the current 3.25%.
- P3Explosive Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY from the current 114%.
- P4Elevated Put Call And Iv
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 3.50.