Value
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.08
- ▸Attractively valued
ETW · Why this verdict
Why Eaton Vance Corporation Eaton V (ETW) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ETW is a small-cap equity-income vehicle with an 8.6% dividend, a 62% margin of safety and best-in-class margins, but revenue is slightly declining (-1%), momentum is weak, and only 2.0% upside remains to resistance.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
ETW is attractively valued, with a 62% margin of safety, a PEG of 0.08 and a value score of 10/10. Bull case | The value score stays above 8.0 and price holds above the $9.10 stop over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe valuation rests on limited data (confidence 0.33), and price is near its 52-week high, so the discount may already be closing. | ||
ETW has best-in-class margins and an attractive P/E versus peers, with gross and operating margins scoring 10/10 and a peer quality rank of 8.9. Peer-rank breakdown | Quality improves from 5.7 and margin scores stay at or above 9/10 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets scores only 0.3/10 and the current ratio 1.3/10, so margin strength has not translated into balance-sheet strength. | ||
ETW pays an 8.6% dividend, with dividend safety scoring 5.5/10, making income the core of the case. Catalyst breakdown | The 8.6% dividend is maintained and safety stays at or above 5.5 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterConfidence in the safety score is low (0.25), and with revenue declining the payout depends on markets rather than organic growth. | ||
Revenue is declining 1%, with the revenue growth component scoring 2.1/10 even as earnings growth scores 10/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue turns from -1% to positive growth over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth with shrinking revenue is hard to sustain, and the peer growth rank of 3.6 shows ETW lags on growth. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.2/10 with falling on-balance volume, and only 2.0% upside to the $9.51 resistance level compares with 2.4% downside. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above 4.5 while price holds above its 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDistribution volume near highs suggests sellers, and with no analyst target and about equal upside and downside, the risk-reward is thin. | ||
ETW is attractively valued, with a 62% margin of safety, a PEG of 0.08 and a value score of 10/10.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The value score stays above 8.0 and price holds above the $9.10 stop over the next 12 months.
CounterThe valuation rests on limited data (confidence 0.33), and price is near its 52-week high, so the discount may already be closing.
ETW has best-in-class margins and an attractive P/E versus peers, with gross and operating margins scoring 10/10 and a peer quality rank of 8.9.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality improves from 5.7 and margin scores stay at or above 9/10 over 12 months.
CounterReturn on assets scores only 0.3/10 and the current ratio 1.3/10, so margin strength has not translated into balance-sheet strength.
ETW pays an 8.6% dividend, with dividend safety scoring 5.5/10, making income the core of the case.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The 8.6% dividend is maintained and safety stays at or above 5.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterConfidence in the safety score is low (0.25), and with revenue declining the payout depends on markets rather than organic growth.
Revenue is declining 1%, with the revenue growth component scoring 2.1/10 even as earnings growth scores 10/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue turns from -1% to positive growth over 12 months.
CounterEarnings growth with shrinking revenue is hard to sustain, and the peer growth rank of 3.6 shows ETW lags on growth.
Momentum is weak at 3.2/10 with falling on-balance volume, and only 2.0% upside to the $9.51 resistance level compares with 2.4% downside.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 while price holds above its 200-day average.
CounterDistribution volume near highs suggests sellers, and with no analyst target and about equal upside and downside, the risk-reward is thin.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.8 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.3 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 8.9 |
| growth rank | 3.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 5.1 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.2/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 9.7 |
| beta | 7.9 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 8.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 10.0; weakest: Insider at 5.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 10.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 9.2, and Technical at 6.1; the weakest are Insider at 5.0, Sentiment at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Margin Safety
Trip ifValue score falls below 7.0 from current 10.0.
- P2Best In Class Margins
Trip ifQuality score falls below 4.5 from current 5.7.
- P3High Dividend Income
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 4.0 from current 5.5.
- P4Flat Revenue Weak Growth
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 8% YoY from current -1%.
- P5Weak Momentum Limited Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $9.10 stop level, more than 2.4% under the current $9.32.