Value
4.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
ETON · Why this verdict
Why Eton Pharmaceuticals (ETON) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Eton Pharmaceuticals is a high-quality specialty drug maker growing revenue 99% YoY with a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score and 21.5% upside to the analyst target, but insiders have sold $13.9M in 90 days (0.969% of market cap) and the earnings record is uneven.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Eton is growing revenue 99% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $37.6M in the latest quarter versus $18.9M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue reaches the $42.2M next-quarter estimate and YoY growth stays above 40%. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, and a small-cap specialty drug maker can see lumpy product launches, so the 99% rate will fade as the base grows. | ||
Eton shows excellent return on equity of 36%, a wide moat and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 25% and the F-Score stays at or above 8 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality shows a warning at 52% FCF to net income, so reported profits are only partly turning into cash. | ||
Insiders sold $13,851,073 across 12 sales in the last 90 days (0.969% of market cap) with no buys, an extreme level of selling. Insider | Insider selling slows to below 0.3% of market cap per 90 days over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsiders at a fast-growing company often sell on pre-arranged schedules or after large gains, so the selling may say little about the outlook. | ||
Eton posted 2 misses (-5.0% and -75.0%), 1 in-line result and one 126.3% beat in the last 4 reports, with the next report due 2026-11-12. Last 4 quarters | EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2026-11-12 report, ending the pattern of consecutive misses. | ↑Improving |
| CounterProfit levels are tiny ($0.04 to $0.43 per share), so percentage surprises are noisy, but repeated misses show estimates are hard to hit. | ||
The $60.77 analyst target is 21.5% above the $50.00 price, with a reward-to-risk of 2.1 and a forward P/E of 19.6x. Analyst target | Price moves toward $60.77 as earnings catch up with growth. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light, and the stock has an 84% implied volatility, so a miss near the 2026-11-12 report could push it toward the $46.91 stop. | ||
Eton is growing revenue 99% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $37.6M in the latest quarter versus $18.9M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches the $42.2M next-quarter estimate and YoY growth stays above 40%.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, and a small-cap specialty drug maker can see lumpy product launches, so the 99% rate will fade as the base grows.
Eton shows excellent return on equity of 36%, a wide moat and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 25% and the F-Score stays at or above 8 over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality shows a warning at 52% FCF to net income, so reported profits are only partly turning into cash.
Insiders sold $13,851,073 across 12 sales in the last 90 days (0.969% of market cap) with no buys, an extreme level of selling.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows to below 0.3% of market cap per 90 days over the next 12 months.
CounterInsiders at a fast-growing company often sell on pre-arranged schedules or after large gains, so the selling may say little about the outlook.
Eton posted 2 misses (-5.0% and -75.0%), 1 in-line result and one 126.3% beat in the last 4 reports, with the next report due 2026-11-12.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2026-11-12 report, ending the pattern of consecutive misses.
CounterProfit levels are tiny ($0.04 to $0.43 per share), so percentage surprises are noisy, but repeated misses show estimates are hard to hit.
The $60.77 analyst target is 21.5% above the $50.00 price, with a reward-to-risk of 2.1 and a forward P/E of 19.6x.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price moves toward $60.77 as earnings catch up with growth.
CounterCoverage is light, and the stock has an 84% implied volatility, so a miss near the 2026-11-12 report could push it toward the $46.91 stop.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.9 |
| Gross margin | 8.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 6.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.1 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 36%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 52% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 99% YoY
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 8.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 36%
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $13,851,073 (0.935% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 1.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.33
- ▸High IV: 98%
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.01, quality 7.8/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- INSIDER:0.94%=EXTREME
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.86
Upside
+15.9%
Downside
8.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.8 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 1.86 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 7.8, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2, and Insider at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.86 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Explosive Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% YoY from current 99%.
- P2High Quality Returns
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 of 9 from current 9.
- P3Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 2% of market cap over 90 days from current 0.969%.
- P4Uneven Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $46.91 stop level, more than 6% under the current $50.00.