Value
5.0/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
ETO · Why this verdict
Why Eaton Vance Tax-Advantage Globa (ETO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ETO is a high-quality financial vehicle (quality 7.5/10, 28% ROE, wide moat) growing revenue 31% YoY, but cash conversion is a red flag at 9% of net income, the dividend is flagged as a yield trap, and momentum is weak with data quality too low for a buy.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
ETO shows excellent return on equity of 28% with a wide moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and a Rule of 40 reading of 81, which rates as elite. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets scores only 1.4/10, which suggests the high ROE leans on leverage rather than operating strength. | ||
ETO is growing revenue 31% YoY, ranking near the top of its peer group on growth (peer growth rank 8.7). Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, and a 31% rate may reflect a one-off or valuation-driven gain rather than recurring income. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at just 9% of net income, despite the high-quality label. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income rises above 50% over 12 months, confirming earnings are backed by cash. | →Stable |
| CounterFor an investment vehicle, reported earnings can include unrealized gains that never convert to cash, so low FCF may be structural. | ||
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap: high yield but unsafe, with dividend safety scoring 4.0/10. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety rises above 5.0 and the payout is held through the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterConfidence in this score is low (0.25), and strong quality scores may mean the payout is better covered than the flag implies. | ||
Momentum is 3.7/10 with falling on-balance volume even though price is above its 200-day average, and data quality of 0.6 is below the 0.7 needed for a buy. Bear case | Momentum recovers above 4.5 and data quality rises above 0.7 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith no analyst target and only 2.3% downside to the stop against 15% default upside, conclusions rest on thin data and could change when more data arrives. | ||
ETO shows excellent return on equity of 28% with a wide moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and a Rule of 40 reading of 81, which rates as elite.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 over the next 12 months.
CounterReturn on assets scores only 1.4/10, which suggests the high ROE leans on leverage rather than operating strength.
ETO is growing revenue 31% YoY, ranking near the top of its peer group on growth (peer growth rank 8.7).
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, and a 31% rate may reflect a one-off or valuation-driven gain rather than recurring income.
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at just 9% of net income, despite the high-quality label.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income rises above 50% over 12 months, confirming earnings are backed by cash.
CounterFor an investment vehicle, reported earnings can include unrealized gains that never convert to cash, so low FCF may be structural.
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap: high yield but unsafe, with dividend safety scoring 4.0/10.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety rises above 5.0 and the payout is held through the next 12 months.
CounterConfidence in this score is low (0.25), and strong quality scores may mean the payout is better covered than the flag implies.
Momentum is 3.7/10 with falling on-balance volume even though price is above its 200-day average, and data quality of 0.6 is below the 0.7 needed for a buy.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 and data quality rises above 0.7 over the next 12 months.
CounterWith no analyst target and only 2.3% downside to the stop against 15% default upside, conclusions rest on thin data and could change when more data arrives.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.4 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.7 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 9% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 31% YoY
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
8.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 9.4 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 9.7 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Insufficient data quality (0.6) for BUY verdict. Need dq >= 0.7.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|L6c:DATA_QUALITY=0.60Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.37>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.1<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.6, and Peer rank at 8.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.0, Momentum at 4.1, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Compounding Returns
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% from current 28%.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from current 31%.
- P3Cash Conversion Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 0% from current 9%.
- P4Yield Trap Dividend Risk
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 3.0 from current 4.0.
- P5Weak Momentum Data Quality
Trip ifPrice falls below the $29.27 stop level, more than 2.3% under the current $29.95.