Value
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
ETB · Why this verdict
Why Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Wri (ETB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ETB is a small-cap buy-write income vehicle that screens as attractively valued (56% margin of safety) with best-in-class margins, but revenue is down 10%, the dividend is flagged as a yield trap, momentum is negative, and only 2.1% separates the price from its stop.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
ETB is attractively valued, with a margin of safety of 56% and a value score of 10/10. Bull case | The value score stays above 8.0 and price holds above the $14.80 stop over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe valuation score rests on limited data (confidence 0.33), and a stock 4.4% from its 52-week high is not obviously cheap. | ||
ETB has best-in-class margins within its peer group, with gross margin scoring 10/10 and a peer quality rank of 8.4. Peer-rank breakdown | Quality improves from 4.4 toward 5.0 with margins at or above current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality is still only 4.4, with the current ratio scoring 0.4 and return on assets 0.0, so strong margins have not turned into balance-sheet strength. | ||
Revenue is declining 10%, and the revenue growth component scores 0.1/10 even though earnings growth scores 10/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue decline narrows from -10% to flat over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA shrinking revenue line undermines the income that supports distributions, and earnings growth alongside falling revenue is hard to sustain. | ||
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap: high yield but unsafe, with dividend safety at 4.5/10. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety rises above 5.0 and the payout is maintained through the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterConfidence in the score is low (0.25), but the combination of falling revenue and a below-average quality score of 4.4 leaves little cover for the payout. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.2/10 with falling on-balance volume, even though the price is above its 200-day average and 4.4% from its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above 4.5 while price holds above its 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDistribution volume near a 52-week high signals sellers, and with 15% modeled upside against 2.1% downside the setup is thin, with no analyst target to confirm it. | ||
ETB is attractively valued, with a margin of safety of 56% and a value score of 10/10.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The value score stays above 8.0 and price holds above the $14.80 stop over the next 12 months.
CounterThe valuation score rests on limited data (confidence 0.33), and a stock 4.4% from its 52-week high is not obviously cheap.
ETB has best-in-class margins within its peer group, with gross margin scoring 10/10 and a peer quality rank of 8.4.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality improves from 4.4 toward 5.0 with margins at or above current levels.
CounterQuality is still only 4.4, with the current ratio scoring 0.4 and return on assets 0.0, so strong margins have not turned into balance-sheet strength.
Revenue is declining 10%, and the revenue growth component scores 0.1/10 even though earnings growth scores 10/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue decline narrows from -10% to flat over 12 months.
CounterA shrinking revenue line undermines the income that supports distributions, and earnings growth alongside falling revenue is hard to sustain.
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap: high yield but unsafe, with dividend safety at 4.5/10.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety rises above 5.0 and the payout is maintained through the next 12 months.
CounterConfidence in the score is low (0.25), but the combination of falling revenue and a below-average quality score of 4.4 leaves little cover for the payout.
Momentum is weak at 3.2/10 with falling on-balance volume, even though the price is above its 200-day average and 4.4% from its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 while price holds above its 200-day average.
CounterDistribution volume near a 52-week high signals sellers, and with 15% modeled upside against 2.1% downside the setup is thin, with no analyst target to confirm it.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 0.4 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 4.3 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 5.1 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.1/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 10.0; weakest: Quality at 4.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 10.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 9.1, and Technical at 7.9; the weakest are Quality at 4.4, Catalyst at 4.5, and Momentum at 4.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Margin Safety
Trip ifValue score falls below 7.0 from current 10.0.
- P2Best In Class Margins
Trip ifQuality score falls below 4.0 from current 4.4.
- P3Declining Revenue Base
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 15% YoY from current -10%.
- P4Yield Trap Dividend Risk
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 3.0 from current 4.5.
- P5Negative Momentum Near High
Trip ifPrice falls below the $14.80 stop level, more than 2.1% under the current $15.12.