Value
5.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.78
ESQ · Why this verdict
Why Esquire Financial Holdings (ESQ) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Esquire is a high-quality regional bank growing revenue 21% YoY with 35% margins and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, but the price is already 7.1% above the analyst target, insiders are selling, and earnings are due in 3 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Esquire is growing revenue 21% YoY with strong margins of 35%, with quarterly revenue rising from $31.5M to $41.3M over five quarters. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY and margins stay above 30% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth scores only 3.6/10 against revenue growth of 7.8/10, so revenue is outpacing profit, and the data flags a revenue discrepancy of up to 6.8% between data sources. | ||
Esquire has a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and superior return on equity versus peers, with a peer quality rank of 8.3. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 and return on equity holds relative to peers. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets scores only 1.5/10 and the valuation rank among peers is 0.4, so quality is already priced in and leaves little room for error. | ||
At $123.54 the price is 7.1% above the $114.75 analyst target, and the forward P/E of 14.5x with a PEG of 1.81 offers no valuation cushion. Analyst target | Earnings growth lifts analyst targets above the current price within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets often lag in a strong breakout, and momentum of 7.7/10 with a golden cross can carry the stock past the target. | ||
Esquire reports earnings in 3 days (2026-10-27), with a record of 2 beats, 1 miss and 1 in-line result in the last 4 quarters and an average surprise of -0.8%. Last 4 quarters | EPS comes in at or above the estimate on 2026-10-27 and the stock holds above $114.33. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith the price already above the target, a miss like the -7.7% in April could cause a sharp drop, and a beat may already be priced in. | ||
Insiders sold $1,616,092 in the last 90 days (0.108% of market cap) with no buys, and short interest is 11%. Insider | Insider selling stays below 0.2% of market cap and short interest stays at or below 11%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSelling is minor relative to market cap and institutions are accumulating, so the signal may be tax or diversification driven rather than a view on the business. | ||
Esquire is growing revenue 21% YoY with strong margins of 35%, with quarterly revenue rising from $31.5M to $41.3M over five quarters.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY and margins stay above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings growth scores only 3.6/10 against revenue growth of 7.8/10, so revenue is outpacing profit, and the data flags a revenue discrepancy of up to 6.8% between data sources.
Esquire has a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and superior return on equity versus peers, with a peer quality rank of 8.3.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 and return on equity holds relative to peers.
CounterReturn on assets scores only 1.5/10 and the valuation rank among peers is 0.4, so quality is already priced in and leaves little room for error.
At $123.54 the price is 7.1% above the $114.75 analyst target, and the forward P/E of 14.5x with a PEG of 1.81 offers no valuation cushion.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Earnings growth lifts analyst targets above the current price within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets often lag in a strong breakout, and momentum of 7.7/10 with a golden cross can carry the stock past the target.
Esquire reports earnings in 3 days (2026-10-27), with a record of 2 beats, 1 miss and 1 in-line result in the last 4 quarters and an average surprise of -0.8%.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS comes in at or above the estimate on 2026-10-27 and the stock holds above $114.33.
CounterWith the price already above the target, a miss like the -7.7% in April could cause a sharp drop, and a beat may already be priced in.
Insiders sold $1,616,092 in the last 90 days (0.108% of market cap) with no buys, and short interest is 11%.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling stays below 0.2% of market cap and short interest stays at or below 11%.
CounterSelling is minor relative to market cap and institutions are accumulating, so the signal may be tax or diversification driven rather than a view on the business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.1 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.8 |
| EPS growth | 3.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 8.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,227,300 (0.078% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.3 |
| quality rank | 8.3 |
| growth rank | 7.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.2 |
| days to cover | 3.4 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.64
Upside
-7.9%
Downside
12.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 6.7; weakest: Technical at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.7, Insider at 6.5, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 4.0, Peer rank at 5.2, and Value at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.64 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth High Margins
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from current 21%.
- P2Superior Quality Roe
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 of 9 from current 8.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls more than 8.1% from $123.54, breaking the $114.33 stop.
- P4Earnings In Three Days
Trip ifEPS misses the estimate by more than 5% on 2026-10-27.
- P5Insider Selling Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest exceeds 15% from current 11%.