Value
5.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.9x
- ▸PEG: 2.63
ESQ · Why this verdict
Why Esquire Financial Holdings (ESQ) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
ESQ is in a confirmed technical breakout, with a golden cross, price above all major moving averages, RSI at 65, and a bullish MACD signal, driving a momentum score of 7.9. Chart pattern detection | The stock should hold above key moving averages and maintain a momentum score above 5.5 over the following months. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI at 65 combined with weak Bollinger and support/resistance technical readings suggests the breakout may already be extended and vulnerable to a pullback. | ||
Esquire ranks with superior ROE and best-in-class margins versus regional bank peers, per the engine's peer-rank notes. Peer-rank breakdown | The company's margin and ROE peer ranking should remain in the top tier of regional banks over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAbsolute ROE and ROA scores are modest (6.2 and 1.6 out of 10 respectively), so the 'superior' framing is relative to a weak peer set rather than an absolute strength. | ||
The stock has already reached and moved past its analyst-target-derived upside, with the engine flagging a -11.7% figure versus target and the asymmetry gate failing at -1.11 as a result. Warnings | The asymmetry ratio should stay negative as long as the stock trades above its analyst-target fair value. | →Stable |
| CounterWith light analyst coverage weighing the price-target dimension, the target itself may be stale and due for an upward revision that would reopen upside. | ||
Valuation looks stretched on a growth-adjusted basis, with a PEG ratio of 2.62 against a forward P/E of 13.9x. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should compress back toward 1.5 or below as earnings growth catches up to the multiple, or the multiple should de-rate. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks are often valued on P/E and dividend yield rather than PEG, so this metric may be a less relevant risk signal here than for a growth stock. | ||
ESQ is in a confirmed technical breakout, with a golden cross, price above all major moving averages, RSI at 65, and a bullish MACD signal, driving a momentum score of 7.9.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The stock should hold above key moving averages and maintain a momentum score above 5.5 over the following months.
CounterRSI at 65 combined with weak Bollinger and support/resistance technical readings suggests the breakout may already be extended and vulnerable to a pullback.
Esquire ranks with superior ROE and best-in-class margins versus regional bank peers, per the engine's peer-rank notes.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The company's margin and ROE peer ranking should remain in the top tier of regional banks over the next four quarters.
CounterAbsolute ROE and ROA scores are modest (6.2 and 1.6 out of 10 respectively), so the 'superior' framing is relative to a weak peer set rather than an absolute strength.
The stock has already reached and moved past its analyst-target-derived upside, with the engine flagging a -11.7% figure versus target and the asymmetry gate failing at -1.11 as a result.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should stay negative as long as the stock trades above its analyst-target fair value.
CounterWith light analyst coverage weighing the price-target dimension, the target itself may be stale and due for an upward revision that would reopen upside.
Valuation looks stretched on a growth-adjusted basis, with a PEG ratio of 2.62 against a forward P/E of 13.9x.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should compress back toward 1.5 or below as earnings growth catches up to the multiple, or the multiple should de-rate.
CounterRegional banks are often valued on P/E and dividend yield rather than PEG, so this metric may be a less relevant risk signal here than for a growth stock.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Esquire Financial is in a confirmed technical breakout with peer-leading margins and ROE, but the stock has already run past its analyst-target-implied upside, leaving the risk/reward asymmetry negative.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.2 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.8 |
| EPS growth | 3.1 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 9.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 6.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 5.1 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.5 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.48
Upside
-9.6%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5. Top dim: Insider at 7.5; weakest: Catalyst at 4.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.5, Momentum at 6.3, and Quality at 6.1; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.4, Growth at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from the current 7.9.
- P2Superior Roe And Margins
Trip ifPeer-rank quality score falls below 5.0 from the current 8.7.
- P3Upside Exhausted Analyst Target
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0.5 from the current -1.11.
- P4Rich Peg Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio exceeds 4.0 from the current 2.62.