Value
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.50
ENPH · Why this verdict
Why Enphase Energy (ENPH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 1.4 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 4.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.2 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 68% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -21%
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 5.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.35 (n=10)
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 4.4 |
| holder change | 5.6 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $5,725,857 (0.081% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.1 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 4.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
- ▸High short interest: 24%
- ▸High IV: 109%
- ▸Above max pain $20
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:48d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.65
Upside
-24.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.57>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.65 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.6, Technical at 5.3, and Insider at 4.8; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Peer rank at 2.1, and Momentum at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.