Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.3 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.65
EFX · Why this verdict
Why Equifax (EFX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive earnings beats and 21.7% potential upside to analyst consensus at a roughly 3.1-to-1 reward/risk ratio make the fundamental setup attractive, but a confirmed price downtrend with the 200-day moving average sloping at -5.4% per month and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.68 mean the near-term technical environment must improve before the fundamental case can translate into price appreciation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Four consecutive quarters of earnings beats, averaging roughly 5% above consensus each period, demonstrate consistent execution and the ability to outperform analyst expectations even as the share price has weakened. Catalyst breakdown | The company delivers a fifth consecutive earnings beat with positive EPS surprise in the next reported quarter. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA declining price alongside consistent earnings beats — with falling OBV indicating volume distribution — suggests the market may be pricing in a future miss or viewing current earnings as insufficient to sustain the valuation; a single miss after four beats could accelerate the downside. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with its 200-day moving average sloping at -5.4% per month, falling volume accumulation (declining OBV), and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.68 — all three pointing to sustained selling pressure that could extend the drawdown before any fundamental thesis pays off. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope turns positive (above 0% per 30 days) and the death cross resolves into a golden cross within 9 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 21.7% upside to analyst consensus and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.1-to-1 imply that much of the negative news may already be discounted, and patient investors with a 12-month horizon may not require technical improvement before the thesis begins to work. | ||
The stock trades roughly 21.7% below the analyst consensus target of $200.91, with a risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.1-to-1 in the investor's favor — a wide asymmetric setup that suggests substantial downside is already discounted at the current price of $165.13. Price targets | Share price closes above $185 (roughly halfway to the analyst consensus target) within 9 months. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio of 2.68 signals that options market participants are heavily positioned for continued weakness, which can suppress near-term price action even when the fundamental case is intact. | ||
The company is an industry growth leader, but carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 and a PEG of 1.63 — embedding growth assumptions into the multiple that, if they decelerate, could expose the stock on both valuation and leverage grounds simultaneously. Bear case | Revenue growth continues at or above the current pace for 2 consecutive fiscal periods, justifying the growth premium embedded in the forward multiple. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFree cash flow converts at 147% of net income with a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9, meaning the balance sheet generates ample cash to service the debt — the combination of growth and cash conversion may make the leverage level less risky than the ratio alone implies. | ||
Four consecutive quarters of earnings beats, averaging roughly 5% above consensus each period, demonstrate consistent execution and the ability to outperform analyst expectations even as the share price has weakened.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company delivers a fifth consecutive earnings beat with positive EPS surprise in the next reported quarter.
CounterA declining price alongside consistent earnings beats — with falling OBV indicating volume distribution — suggests the market may be pricing in a future miss or viewing current earnings as insufficient to sustain the valuation; a single miss after four beats could accelerate the downside.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with its 200-day moving average sloping at -5.4% per month, falling volume accumulation (declining OBV), and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.68 — all three pointing to sustained selling pressure that could extend the drawdown before any fundamental thesis pays off.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns positive (above 0% per 30 days) and the death cross resolves into a golden cross within 9 months.
CounterThe 21.7% upside to analyst consensus and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.1-to-1 imply that much of the negative news may already be discounted, and patient investors with a 12-month horizon may not require technical improvement before the thesis begins to work.
The stock trades roughly 21.7% below the analyst consensus target of $200.91, with a risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.1-to-1 in the investor's favor — a wide asymmetric setup that suggests substantial downside is already discounted at the current price of $165.13.
Tripped→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Share price closes above $185 (roughly halfway to the analyst consensus target) within 9 months.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio of 2.68 signals that options market participants are heavily positioned for continued weakness, which can suppress near-term price action even when the fundamental case is intact.
The company is an industry growth leader, but carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 and a PEG of 1.63 — embedding growth assumptions into the multiple that, if they decelerate, could expose the stock on both valuation and leverage grounds simultaneously.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth continues at or above the current pace for 2 consecutive fiscal periods, justifying the growth premium embedded in the forward multiple.
CounterFree cash flow converts at 147% of net income with a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9, meaning the balance sheet generates ample cash to service the debt — the combination of growth and cash conversion may make the leverage level less risky than the ratio alone implies.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 7.1 |
| Op margin | 6.9 |
| Net margin | 5.4 |
| Current ratio | 2.4 |
| FCF quality | 9.6 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 137% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 2.1 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,044,790 (0.005% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 3.2 |
| 52w position | 2.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 0.2 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.82
Upside
+9.8%
Downside
12.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.32>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.82 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Sentiment at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Growth at 3.7, and Momentum at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for any single reported quarter, breaking the 4-quarter consecutive beat streak.
- P2Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope turns positive (above 0% per 30 days) and price holds above the 200-day MA for 10 consecutive trading days, resolving the downtrend concern.
- P3Material Upside To Analyst TargetTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus target falls below $175 (less than 6% above the current price of $165.13), eliminating the material upside thesis.
- P4Growth At Elevated Leverage
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters while debt-to-equity falls below 0.8, demonstrating growth is outpacing leverage and falsifying the dual-risk concern.