Value
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.49
EFX · Why this verdict
Why Equifax (EFX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive earnings beats and 21.7% potential upside to analyst consensus at a roughly 3.1-to-1 reward/risk ratio make the fundamental setup attractive, but a confirmed price downtrend with the 200-day moving average sloping at -5.4% per month and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.68 mean the near-term technical environment must improve before the fundamental case can translate into price appreciation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Four consecutive quarters of earnings beats, averaging roughly 5% above consensus each period, demonstrate consistent execution and the ability to outperform analyst expectations even as the share price has weakened. Catalyst breakdown | The company delivers a fifth consecutive earnings beat with positive EPS surprise in the next reported quarter. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA declining price alongside consistent earnings beats — with falling OBV indicating volume distribution — suggests the market may be pricing in a future miss or viewing current earnings as insufficient to sustain the valuation; a single miss after four beats could accelerate the downside. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with its 200-day moving average sloping at -5.4% per month, falling volume accumulation (declining OBV), and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.68 — all three pointing to sustained selling pressure that could extend the drawdown before any fundamental thesis pays off. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope turns positive (above 0% per 30 days) and the death cross resolves into a golden cross within 9 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 21.7% upside to analyst consensus and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.1-to-1 imply that much of the negative news may already be discounted, and patient investors with a 12-month horizon may not require technical improvement before the thesis begins to work. | ||
The stock trades roughly 21.7% below the analyst consensus target of $200.91, with a risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.1-to-1 in the investor's favor — a wide asymmetric setup that suggests substantial downside is already discounted at the current price of $165.13. Price targets | Share price closes above $185 (roughly halfway to the analyst consensus target) within 9 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio of 2.68 signals that options market participants are heavily positioned for continued weakness, which can suppress near-term price action even when the fundamental case is intact. | ||
The company is an industry growth leader, but carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 and a PEG of 1.63 — embedding growth assumptions into the multiple that, if they decelerate, could expose the stock on both valuation and leverage grounds simultaneously. Bear case | Revenue growth continues at or above the current pace for 2 consecutive fiscal periods, justifying the growth premium embedded in the forward multiple. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFree cash flow converts at 147% of net income with a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9, meaning the balance sheet generates ample cash to service the debt — the combination of growth and cash conversion may make the leverage level less risky than the ratio alone implies. | ||
Four consecutive quarters of earnings beats, averaging roughly 5% above consensus each period, demonstrate consistent execution and the ability to outperform analyst expectations even as the share price has weakened.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company delivers a fifth consecutive earnings beat with positive EPS surprise in the next reported quarter.
CounterA declining price alongside consistent earnings beats — with falling OBV indicating volume distribution — suggests the market may be pricing in a future miss or viewing current earnings as insufficient to sustain the valuation; a single miss after four beats could accelerate the downside.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with its 200-day moving average sloping at -5.4% per month, falling volume accumulation (declining OBV), and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.68 — all three pointing to sustained selling pressure that could extend the drawdown before any fundamental thesis pays off.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns positive (above 0% per 30 days) and the death cross resolves into a golden cross within 9 months.
CounterThe 21.7% upside to analyst consensus and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.1-to-1 imply that much of the negative news may already be discounted, and patient investors with a 12-month horizon may not require technical improvement before the thesis begins to work.
The stock trades roughly 21.7% below the analyst consensus target of $200.91, with a risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.1-to-1 in the investor's favor — a wide asymmetric setup that suggests substantial downside is already discounted at the current price of $165.13.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Share price closes above $185 (roughly halfway to the analyst consensus target) within 9 months.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio of 2.68 signals that options market participants are heavily positioned for continued weakness, which can suppress near-term price action even when the fundamental case is intact.
The company is an industry growth leader, but carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 and a PEG of 1.63 — embedding growth assumptions into the multiple that, if they decelerate, could expose the stock on both valuation and leverage grounds simultaneously.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth continues at or above the current pace for 2 consecutive fiscal periods, justifying the growth premium embedded in the forward multiple.
CounterFree cash flow converts at 147% of net income with a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9, meaning the balance sheet generates ample cash to service the debt — the combination of growth and cash conversion may make the leverage level less risky than the ratio alone implies.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.1 |
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 8.4 |
| Net margin | 5.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 9.2 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 127% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 9.8 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 76)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 76 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.3 |
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $7,754,160 (0.037% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $110
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:95d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.03
Upside
+0.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.34>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.03 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.4, Sentiment at 6.6, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Insider at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for any single reported quarter, breaking the 4-quarter consecutive beat streak.
- P2Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope turns positive (above 0% per 30 days) and price holds above the 200-day MA for 10 consecutive trading days, resolving the downtrend concern.
- P3Material Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus target falls below $175 (less than 6% above the current price of $165.13), eliminating the material upside thesis.
- P4Growth At Elevated Leverage
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters while debt-to-equity falls below 0.8, demonstrating growth is outpacing leverage and falsifying the dual-risk concern.