Value
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
EEX · Why this verdict
Why Emerald Holding (EEX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters (average surprise 125%) while screening as attractively valued (forward P/E 17.3x, PEG 0.07). Bull case | The beat rate should hold at 3 or more beats out of the next 4 quarters while the value score remains elevated. | →Stable |
| CounterA very high average surprise combined with a low PEG can mask the fact that consensus estimates have been falling, meaning beats are against a lowered bar rather than rising expectations. | ||
Forward estimates are falling sharply (-41.7% over 30 days), used as a sentiment proxy, signaling deteriorating analyst confidence in future earnings power. Sentiment breakdown | The estimate-revision trend should stabilize or turn positive within the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA large single estimate-cut event, such as a one-time guidance reset, can distort the 30-day revision percentage without reflecting an ongoing negative trend. | ||
The V8 model's price target has already been reached with -15% implied downside, and the asymmetry ratio is negative (-1.0), signaling poor risk/reward at current levels. Warnings | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive (above 1.5) as either price pulls back or the target resets higher. | →Stable |
| CounterAn attractive PEG ratio (0.07) suggests further upside could still be justified on a growth-adjusted basis even though the static price target has been reached. | ||
The engine flags a yield-trap warning (high yield, unsafe) compounded by a leverage penalty from a D/E ratio of 1.5. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety should improve and the yield-trap flag should clear as leverage declines and FCF coverage strengthens. | →Stable |
| CounterThe business remains FCF-positive (18% FCF margin) despite a GAAP loss, which could support continued dividend coverage even with elevated leverage. | ||
The company has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters (average surprise 125%) while screening as attractively valued (forward P/E 17.3x, PEG 0.07).
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat rate should hold at 3 or more beats out of the next 4 quarters while the value score remains elevated.
CounterA very high average surprise combined with a low PEG can mask the fact that consensus estimates have been falling, meaning beats are against a lowered bar rather than rising expectations.
Forward estimates are falling sharply (-41.7% over 30 days), used as a sentiment proxy, signaling deteriorating analyst confidence in future earnings power.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The estimate-revision trend should stabilize or turn positive within the next two quarters.
CounterA large single estimate-cut event, such as a one-time guidance reset, can distort the 30-day revision percentage without reflecting an ongoing negative trend.
The V8 model's price target has already been reached with -15% implied downside, and the asymmetry ratio is negative (-1.0), signaling poor risk/reward at current levels.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive (above 1.5) as either price pulls back or the target resets higher.
CounterAn attractive PEG ratio (0.07) suggests further upside could still be justified on a growth-adjusted basis even though the static price target has been reached.
The engine flags a yield-trap warning (high yield, unsafe) compounded by a leverage penalty from a D/E ratio of 1.5.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety should improve and the yield-trap flag should clear as leverage declines and FCF coverage strengthens.
CounterThe business remains FCF-positive (18% FCF margin) despite a GAAP loss, which could support continued dividend coverage even with elevated leverage.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
EEX shows a strong recent earnings-beat streak and an attractive valuation, but sharply falling forward estimates, a price target already reached with negative asymmetry, and a flagged dividend yield-trap keep the setup cautious.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 8.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.6 |
| FCF quality | 7.6 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 18%, FCF yield 8.6%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.99
Upside
-14.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 28d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.99 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Growth at 6.9, and Technical at 6.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.3, Quality at 4.9, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.99 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Attractive Valuation
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in both of the next 2 reporting quarters.
- P2Estimates Trending Sharply Down
Trip ifThe forward estimate revision stays below -20% for 2 additional consecutive months.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 from the current -1.0.
- P4Dividend Yield Trap Leverage
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio exceeds 2.5x from the current 1.5x.