Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
ECVT · Why this verdict
Why Ecovyst (ECVT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ecovyst is growing revenue and earnings strongly (42% YoY) with a 4-quarter earnings beat streak and 34.8% upside to the analyst target, but quality is weak (3.1/10), customer concentration is high, and the stock is in a short-term pullback.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The $13.20 analyst target is 34.8% above the $9.79 price, with forward P/E of 11.3x and a modest insider purchase of $249,994. Analyst target | Price moves toward the $13.20 target as earnings growth shows through. | →Stable |
| CounterOne small insider buy is a thin signal, and a 5% modeled downside understates the risk given 87% implied volatility. | ||
Momentum is weak at 2.7/10 with falling on-balance volume and price below the 200-day average, though that average is still rising 1.0% per 30 days, suggesting a pullback in an uptrend. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims its 200-day average and the put/call ratio eases from 1.67. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDistribution volume plus an elevated put/call ratio of 1.67 suggest informed selling that could turn the pullback into a real downtrend. | ||
Ecovyst is growing strongly at 42% YoY, with quarterly revenue up from $176M to $250M over the last year. Growth breakdown | Revenue stays above the $292M next-quarter estimate trajectory and YoY growth stays above 15% over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPart of the surge may be acquisition or one-off driven, and the prior-year base was weak, so the 42% rate will mechanically fade. | ||
Ecovyst has beaten EPS estimates 4 quarters in a row with an average surprise of 65.4%, and the next report is due in 12 days on 2026-11-05. Catalyst breakdown | EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2026-11-05 report, extending the streak to 5 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEstimates are low and small in absolute terms (a $0.21 actual), so big percentage beats are noisy; the company missed 4 of 5 quarters in 2023-24. | ||
The top ten customers make up 61.0% of revenue and there is no competitive moat, leaving quality at 3.1 versus a 4.0 floor. Bear case | Top-ten customer share falls below 61% and quality rises toward 4.0 as the company diversifies. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLosing one large customer in a specialty-chemicals business could hit revenue materially, and weak margins give little cushion. | ||
The $13.20 analyst target is 34.8% above the $9.79 price, with forward P/E of 11.3x and a modest insider purchase of $249,994.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $13.20 target as earnings growth shows through.
CounterOne small insider buy is a thin signal, and a 5% modeled downside understates the risk given 87% implied volatility.
Momentum is weak at 2.7/10 with falling on-balance volume and price below the 200-day average, though that average is still rising 1.0% per 30 days, suggesting a pullback in an uptrend.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims its 200-day average and the put/call ratio eases from 1.67.
CounterDistribution volume plus an elevated put/call ratio of 1.67 suggest informed selling that could turn the pullback into a real downtrend.
Ecovyst is growing strongly at 42% YoY, with quarterly revenue up from $176M to $250M over the last year.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue stays above the $292M next-quarter estimate trajectory and YoY growth stays above 15% over 12 months.
CounterPart of the surge may be acquisition or one-off driven, and the prior-year base was weak, so the 42% rate will mechanically fade.
Ecovyst has beaten EPS estimates 4 quarters in a row with an average surprise of 65.4%, and the next report is due in 12 days on 2026-11-05.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates at the 2026-11-05 report, extending the streak to 5 quarters.
CounterEstimates are low and small in absolute terms (a $0.21 actual), so big percentage beats are noisy; the company missed 4 of 5 quarters in 2023-24.
The top ten customers make up 61.0% of revenue and there is no competitive moat, leaving quality at 3.1 versus a 4.0 floor.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Top-ten customer share falls below 61% and quality rises toward 4.0 as the company diversifies.
CounterLosing one large customer in a specialty-chemicals business could hit revenue materially, and weak margins give little cushion.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.3 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.3 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 42% YoY
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 3.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 49%
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 7.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $249,994 (0.022% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 2.3 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| put call | 2.2 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 5.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.67
- ▸High IV: 88%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.77
Upside
+29.5%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.1
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 6d<=7d outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 4.77.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.1, and Insider at 7.0; the weakest are Quality at 3.1, Technical at 3.4, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.77 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from current 42%.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Customer Concentration Weak Quality
Trip ifTop-ten customer share exceeds 70% of revenue from current 61.0%.
- P4Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $9.33 stop level, more than 4.7% under the current $9.79.
- P5Negative Momentum Pullback
Trip ifPut/call ratio exceeds 2.5 from current 1.67.