Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| PEG | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.2x
- ▸PEG: 4.12
EBF · Why this verdict
Why Ennis (EBF) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A golden cross above all moving averages with RSI 57 and bullish MACD reflects a breakout setup, with price near its 52-week high (3.9% away). Chart pattern detection | Price should break to fresh 52-week highs and momentum should stay confirmed above the moving averages over the next several months. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume during this advance suggests weakening buying conviction even as price pushes toward highs, a possible bearish divergence. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with limited (-5.1%) further upside, and the asymmetry ratio is negative (-0.73), signaling poor current risk/reward. Bear case | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive (above 1.5) as either price pulls back to a better entry or the target is raised. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and continued fundamental execution could justify analysts raising the price target rather than the stock simply being done at current levels. | ||
The company shows strong fundamental quality with an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, even though the engine identifies no distinct competitive moat. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should remain at 7 or above as fundamental execution continues. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score reflects balance-sheet and profitability trend improvements but does not by itself confirm a durable competitive advantage, leaving the business exposed to margin competition. | ||
The engine flags a yield-trap warning (high dividend yield not well supported) compounded by a leverage penalty from a D/E ratio of 2.6. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety should improve and the yield-trap flag should clear as leverage declines from the current 2.6x D/E. | →Stable |
| CounterMixed earnings results (2 beats, 2 misses) with a roughly flat average surprise suggest earnings power may be stable enough to continue covering the dividend despite the leverage flag. | ||
A golden cross above all moving averages with RSI 57 and bullish MACD reflects a breakout setup, with price near its 52-week high (3.9% away).
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should break to fresh 52-week highs and momentum should stay confirmed above the moving averages over the next several months.
CounterFalling on-balance volume during this advance suggests weakening buying conviction even as price pushes toward highs, a possible bearish divergence.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target with limited (-5.1%) further upside, and the asymmetry ratio is negative (-0.73), signaling poor current risk/reward.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive (above 1.5) as either price pulls back to a better entry or the target is raised.
CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and continued fundamental execution could justify analysts raising the price target rather than the stock simply being done at current levels.
The company shows strong fundamental quality with an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score, even though the engine identifies no distinct competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should remain at 7 or above as fundamental execution continues.
CounterA high Piotroski score reflects balance-sheet and profitability trend improvements but does not by itself confirm a durable competitive advantage, leaving the business exposed to margin competition.
The engine flags a yield-trap warning (high dividend yield not well supported) compounded by a leverage penalty from a D/E ratio of 2.6.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety should improve and the yield-trap flag should clear as leverage declines from the current 2.6x D/E.
CounterMixed earnings results (2 beats, 2 misses) with a roughly flat average surprise suggest earnings power may be stable enough to continue covering the dividend despite the leverage flag.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
EBF is in a technical breakout near 52-week highs with strong fundamental quality (8/9 Piotroski), but the analyst target has already been reached with negative asymmetry, and elevated leverage raises a dividend yield-trap flag.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 5.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.2 |
| Op margin | 5.5 |
| Net margin | 5.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
| EPS growth | 2.6 |
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.5 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 90%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.7 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:75d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.61
Upside
-3.4%
Downside
5.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5. Top dim: Insider at 7.5; weakest: Growth at 2.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.5, Value at 6.9, and Peer rank at 6.5; the weakest are Growth at 2.8, Catalyst at 4.1, and Momentum at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Breakout Near 52 Week Highs
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average, ending the breakout structure.
- P2Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 from the current -0.73.
- P3Strong Fundamental Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 out of 9 within the next two quarters.
- P4Dividend Yield Trap Leverage
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio exceeds 3.5x from the current 2.6x.