Value
1.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.3 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 97.0x
- ▸Expensive valuation
DOCN · Why this verdict
Why DigitalOcean Holdings (DOCN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 5.7 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 5.1 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 70%
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 67% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.35 (n=2)
Insider
3.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $565,916,769 (3.181% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.4 |
| quality rank | 9.0 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.3 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 5.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 3.6 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 16% short, quality 7.5
- ▸High IV: 105%
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:52d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.58
Upside
-8.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.57>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.58 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.2, Quality at 6.8, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Value at 1.8, Insider at 3.1, and Momentum at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.58 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.