Value
6.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.5 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 66.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.62
DNUT · Why this verdict
Why Krispy Kreme (DNUT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Krispy Kreme has shrinking revenue, very weak quality and a confirmed downtrend with heavy short interest, though a 26% gap to the analyst target offers a speculative rebound case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is below its 200-day average with a slope of -5.4% per 30 days and falling on-balance volume, with momentum at 3.9/10. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day average flattens and the price stabilizes within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInstitutions are accumulating, which may indicate that a bottom is forming. | ||
Revenue is declining 13%, with quarterly revenue falling from $379.8M in June 2025 to $331.0M in June 2026 and a next-quarter estimate of $305.7M. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stabilizes near $330M and growth resumes within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe growth score is neutral at 5.0/10, and the decline may be partly driven by store or franchise changes rather than demand. | ||
Quality scores 1.0/10 with a Piotroski F-Score of only 3/9 and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski score improves as the business stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterThe forward P/E is 59.7x, so earnings are small and quality metrics may improve quickly from a low base. | ||
At $2.82 the stock has 26.0% upside to the $3.55 analyst target against 8.6% downside to the $2.73 support level, a reward-to-risk of 3.01. Upside pct | Price moves toward the analyst target while holding above $2.73. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is 45% off its 52-week high in a death-cross downtrend, so targets may be cut further. | ||
Short interest is 21%, the put/call ratio is 4.24 and implied volatility is 94%, showing the market is heavily positioned against the stock. Risk breakdown | Short interest declines as results stabilize, easing pressure. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHeavy short positioning plus institutions accumulating can fuel a sharp squeeze if results surprise. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average with a slope of -5.4% per 30 days and falling on-balance volume, with momentum at 3.9/10.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day average flattens and the price stabilizes within 12 months.
CounterInstitutions are accumulating, which may indicate that a bottom is forming.
Revenue is declining 13%, with quarterly revenue falling from $379.8M in June 2025 to $331.0M in June 2026 and a next-quarter estimate of $305.7M.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stabilizes near $330M and growth resumes within 12 months.
CounterThe growth score is neutral at 5.0/10, and the decline may be partly driven by store or franchise changes rather than demand.
Quality scores 1.0/10 with a Piotroski F-Score of only 3/9 and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score improves as the business stabilizes.
CounterThe forward P/E is 59.7x, so earnings are small and quality metrics may improve quickly from a low base.
At $2.82 the stock has 26.0% upside to the $3.55 analyst target against 8.6% downside to the $2.73 support level, a reward-to-risk of 3.01.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target while holding above $2.73.
CounterThe stock is 45% off its 52-week high in a death-cross downtrend, so targets may be cut further.
Short interest is 21%, the put/call ratio is 4.24 and implied volatility is 94%, showing the market is heavily positioned against the stock.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest declines as results stabilize, easing pressure.
CounterHeavy short positioning plus institutions accumulating can fuel a sharp squeeze if results surprise.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.4 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -13%
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 7.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
1.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 1.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.6 |
| days to cover | 1.2 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| put call | 7.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 3.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 19%
- ▸High IV: 95%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.4>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.46
Upside
+19.3%
Downside
7.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -40% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 6d<=7d outcome against Insider at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of 2.46.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Sentiment at 6.5, and Momentum at 6.4; the weakest are Quality at 1.0, Peer rank at 1.6, and Technical at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Declining Revenue Base
Trip ifYear-over-year quarterly revenue growth rises above -5% from the current -12.8%.
- P2Weak Quality No Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 5 of 9 from the current 3.
- P3Analyst Target Rebound
Trip ifShare price falls below the $2.73 support level.
- P4Crowded Bearish Positioning
Trip ifShort interest falls below 12% from the current 21%.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope rises above 0% per 30 days from the current -5.4%.