Value
5.7/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.7 |
DNA · Why this verdict
Why Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings (DNA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
DNA shows a technically-driven recovery bounce (improving MACD, RSI 78) inside a broader fundamental decline — falling revenue, extreme insider selling, and a V8 price target already reached with negative risk/reward asymmetry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum is recovering with improving MACD and RSI 78 even after a death cross, forming a potential short-term technical bottom. Chart pattern detection | MACD should continue improving and price should hold above near-term support levels as the recovery setup confirms over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI 78 alongside a flat-to-negative moving-average slope signals late-cycle distribution risk, meaning the 'recovery' could be a temporary bounce rather than a genuine trend reversal. | ||
Revenue has declined sharply (-49% YoY), reflecting fundamental deterioration in the core business. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive within four quarters if the underlying business stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterA low prior-year base from divesting non-core segments could make the revenue decline look worse than the underlying run-rate business trend. | ||
Heavy insider selling ($3.5M, 0.522% of market cap, flagged EXTREME) signals reduced insider confidence at current prices. Insider breakdown | Insider selling severity should decelerate below the EXTREME threshold, or activity should shift back to net-neutral within two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInsider sales at a small-cap biotech are frequently pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) tied to compensation vesting rather than a negative view of the business. | ||
The stock has already reached its V8 price target with -30.5% implied downside, and the asymmetry ratio is negative (-2.04), indicating poor risk/reward at current levels. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive (above 1.5) as price pulls back or fundamentals improve enough to support a higher target. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated options implied volatility (101%) suggests the market is pricing a wide range of outcomes, and a positive catalyst could reset the price target upward quickly. | ||
Momentum is recovering with improving MACD and RSI 78 even after a death cross, forming a potential short-term technical bottom.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- MACD should continue improving and price should hold above near-term support levels as the recovery setup confirms over the next 12 months.
CounterRSI 78 alongside a flat-to-negative moving-average slope signals late-cycle distribution risk, meaning the 'recovery' could be a temporary bounce rather than a genuine trend reversal.
Revenue has declined sharply (-49% YoY), reflecting fundamental deterioration in the core business.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive within four quarters if the underlying business stabilizes.
CounterA low prior-year base from divesting non-core segments could make the revenue decline look worse than the underlying run-rate business trend.
Heavy insider selling ($3.5M, 0.522% of market cap, flagged EXTREME) signals reduced insider confidence at current prices.
↓DeterioratingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling severity should decelerate below the EXTREME threshold, or activity should shift back to net-neutral within two quarters.
CounterInsider sales at a small-cap biotech are frequently pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) tied to compensation vesting rather than a negative view of the business.
The stock has already reached its V8 price target with -30.5% implied downside, and the asymmetry ratio is negative (-2.04), indicating poor risk/reward at current levels.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive (above 1.5) as price pulls back or fundamentals improve enough to support a higher target.
CounterElevated options implied volatility (101%) suggests the market is pricing a wide range of outcomes, and a positive catalyst could reset the price target upward quickly.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.6 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -55% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -103 (fail)
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -48%
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 0.8 |
| erm sentiment | 3.1 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,380,090 (0.154% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 1.8 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 4.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.0 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.0 |
| debt equity | 5.2 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 15%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.90
- ▸High IV: 134%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.1 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-3.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.15%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
-3.26
Upside
-48.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -3.3=NEGATIVE outcome against Momentum at 6.2 and asymmetric R:R of -3.26.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.2, Value at 5.7, and Insider at 5.4; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Peer rank at 2.5, and Catalyst at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Technical Recovery Bounce
Trip ifRSI falls below 30 within the next month, signaling the recovery move has failed.
- P2Declining Core Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth stays below -20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a percentage of market cap exceeds 1.0% within the next quarter.
- P4Negative Risk Reward Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 from the current -2.04.