Value
9.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
DMC · Why this verdict
Why Del Monte (DMC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Del Monte has a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, a low multiple and 49.8% upside to the analyst target, but a negative cash-flow red flag and a confirmed downtrend keep it unattractive for now.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is -294% of net income, flagged as an earnings-quality red flag, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion turns positive over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski score of 8/9 suggests the negative cash flow may be temporary working-capital or capex timing. | ||
At $29.51 the stock has 49.8% upside to the $44.20 analyst target against 6.8% downside to the $27.49 stop, a reward-to-risk of 7.3. Upside pct | Price moves toward the analyst target while holding above the stop. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross and a put/call ratio of 3.00, so the target may not be reached. | ||
Del Monte beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 56.37%, including 150.0% in February 2026. Last 4 quarters | Earnings continue to beat estimates through the next four reports. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe May 2026 beat was only 1.61%, and beats may reflect low analyst estimates; the next report is 4 days away. | ||
Forward P/E is 9.4x with a PEG of 0.03, and the stock is flagged as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The multiple holds near 9x as earnings come in. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA low multiple on a business with quality of 2.9/10 and no moat may reflect a justified discount. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average with a slope of -2.3% per 30 days, momentum is 2.3/10 and the put/call ratio is 3.00. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day average flattens and momentum recovers within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe chart is range-bound with RSI at 47 and insiders bought $350,858, which could mark a base. | ||
Free cash flow is -294% of net income, flagged as an earnings-quality red flag, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion turns positive over the next four quarters.
CounterA strong Piotroski score of 8/9 suggests the negative cash flow may be temporary working-capital or capex timing.
At $29.51 the stock has 49.8% upside to the $44.20 analyst target against 6.8% downside to the $27.49 stop, a reward-to-risk of 7.3.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target while holding above the stop.
CounterThe stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross and a put/call ratio of 3.00, so the target may not be reached.
Del Monte beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 56.37%, including 150.0% in February 2026.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Earnings continue to beat estimates through the next four reports.
CounterThe May 2026 beat was only 1.61%, and beats may reflect low analyst estimates; the next report is 4 days away.
Forward P/E is 9.4x with a PEG of 0.03, and the stock is flagged as attractively valued.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The multiple holds near 9x as earnings come in.
CounterA low multiple on a business with quality of 2.9/10 and no moat may reflect a justified discount.
The stock is below its 200-day average with a slope of -2.3% per 30 days, momentum is 2.3/10 and the put/call ratio is 3.00.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day average flattens and momentum recovers within 12 months.
CounterThe chart is range-bound with RSI at 47 and insiders bought $350,858, which could mark a base.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.6 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.6 |
| Net margin | 0.4 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -294% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 4.8 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.8 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (2.4x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 79%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $350,858 (0.026% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 3.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:7.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.4>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
7.60
Upside
+52.4%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 7.60.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8; the weakest are Quality at 2.9, Momentum at 5.4, and Insider at 5.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.60 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Asymmetry
Trip ifShare price falls below the $27.49 stop level.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Low Multiple Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 9.4x.
- P4Negative Cash Flow Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income rises above 50% from the current -294%.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend Pressure
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope rises above 0% per 30 days from the current -2.3%.