Value
9.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
DMC · Why this verdict
Why Del Monte (DMC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The catalyst notes cite a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak averaging a 54.77% surprise, and the V9 edge_type is CATALYST ahead of earnings in 25 days. Catalyst breakdown | The earnings beat streak should extend to 5 of 5 quarters with continued positive average surprise at the next report. | →Stable |
| CounterThe magnitude of recent surprises, up to 150%, suggests analysts have been setting low estimates that the company has repeatedly cleared, so continued outperformance may reflect conservative guidance rather than accelerating fundamentals, and any deviation from that pattern could disappoint. | ||
The stock screens attractively valued with a forward P/E of 8.4x and PEG of 0.06, alongside 84% analyst-implied upside to the price target of $44.20 from the current $28.22. Valuation breakdown | Value score should remain elevated above 7 and the valuation discount should narrow through price appreciation over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap multiples alongside a quality score of just 2.8, below the engine's 4.0 floor, and a confirmed technical downtrend suggest the market may be discounting genuine fundamental deterioration, including declining revenue of -5%, rather than offering a pure bargain. | ||
The V9 death-cross gate hard-blocked the position, with price below the 200-day moving average and a -2.2%/30-day MA slope confirming a downtrend, alongside a failed momentum gate at 3.4 versus a 4.5 threshold. Engine gate (failed) | The death-cross gate should clear and price should reclaim its 200-day moving average over the next 12 months if the downtrend reverses. | →Stable |
| CounterThe setup is already classified as RECOVERY with MACD improving and RSI back to a neutral 46, and the CATALYST edge type tied to an imminent earnings report with a 4-for-4 beat streak could be the trigger that reverses the technical downtrend. | ||
The quality assessment flags an earnings-quality red flag with FCF/NI conversion of -69%, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7.8 out of 9. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI conversion should turn positive over the next 12 months if reported earnings begin to be backed by actual cash generation. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7.8/9 alongside the negative FCF/NI reading suggests the cash-flow red flag may stem from working-capital timing rather than a structural inability to convert earnings into cash, especially given the strong 8.0 current ratio. | ||
Key risks flag an elevated put/call ratio of 5.00, signaling heavy options-market hedging or bearish positioning ahead of the upcoming earnings catalyst. Key risks | Put/call ratio should decline back toward a more neutral level below 1.5 over the next 12 months if bearish options positioning unwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio ahead of an earnings date with a perfect beat streak could simply reflect routine protective hedging by long holders rather than a genuine bearish view on the outcome. | ||
The catalyst notes cite a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak averaging a 54.77% surprise, and the V9 edge_type is CATALYST ahead of earnings in 25 days.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak should extend to 5 of 5 quarters with continued positive average surprise at the next report.
CounterThe magnitude of recent surprises, up to 150%, suggests analysts have been setting low estimates that the company has repeatedly cleared, so continued outperformance may reflect conservative guidance rather than accelerating fundamentals, and any deviation from that pattern could disappoint.
The stock screens attractively valued with a forward P/E of 8.4x and PEG of 0.06, alongside 84% analyst-implied upside to the price target of $44.20 from the current $28.22.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Value score should remain elevated above 7 and the valuation discount should narrow through price appreciation over the next 12 months.
CounterCheap multiples alongside a quality score of just 2.8, below the engine's 4.0 floor, and a confirmed technical downtrend suggest the market may be discounting genuine fundamental deterioration, including declining revenue of -5%, rather than offering a pure bargain.
The V9 death-cross gate hard-blocked the position, with price below the 200-day moving average and a -2.2%/30-day MA slope confirming a downtrend, alongside a failed momentum gate at 3.4 versus a 4.5 threshold.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The death-cross gate should clear and price should reclaim its 200-day moving average over the next 12 months if the downtrend reverses.
CounterThe setup is already classified as RECOVERY with MACD improving and RSI back to a neutral 46, and the CATALYST edge type tied to an imminent earnings report with a 4-for-4 beat streak could be the trigger that reverses the technical downtrend.
The quality assessment flags an earnings-quality red flag with FCF/NI conversion of -69%, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7.8 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI conversion should turn positive over the next 12 months if reported earnings begin to be backed by actual cash generation.
CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7.8/9 alongside the negative FCF/NI reading suggests the cash-flow red flag may stem from working-capital timing rather than a structural inability to convert earnings into cash, especially given the strong 8.0 current ratio.
Key risks flag an elevated put/call ratio of 5.00, signaling heavy options-market hedging or bearish positioning ahead of the upcoming earnings catalyst.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio should decline back toward a more neutral level below 1.5 over the next 12 months if bearish options positioning unwinds.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio ahead of an earnings date with a perfect beat streak could simply reflect routine protective hedging by long holders rather than a genuine bearish view on the outcome.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
This name enters an imminent earnings catalyst on a perfect 4-quarter beat streak and a cheap valuation, but a hard-blocked death-cross downtrend, a quality score below the engine's floor, and elevated put/call hedging temper the setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.4 |
| Net margin | 0.8 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -69% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -5%
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 84%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 1.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 4.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:7.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
7.80
Upside
+56.0%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 22d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Catalyst at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Quality at 2.8, Momentum at 3.7, and Technical at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.80 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Beat Streak Earnings Catalyst
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls to 2 of the next 4 quarters or fewer, or average surprise falls below 10% (from 54.77%), breaking the current 4-quarter streak.
- P2Deep Value Cheap Multiples
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x, up from the current 8.4x, or value score falls below 6.0 (from 9.0).
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Death Cross Block
Trip ifPrice closes back above its 200-day moving average and the death-cross gate clears, or momentum score rises above 4.5 (from 3.4).
- P4Earnings Quality Red Flag Negative Fcf
Trip ifFCF/NI conversion turns positive, rising above 0% (from -69%).
- P5Elevated Put Call Hedging Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.5, down from the current elevated 5.00 reading.