Value
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
DDI · Why this verdict
Why DoubleDown Interactive Co. (DDI) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
DoubleDown Interactive is a high-quality, deeply undervalued gaming business with a 3.72 reward-to-risk, held back by weak near-term momentum and uneven earnings surprises.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Forward P/E is 5.4x with a PEG of 0.11, and the stock is flagged with a 68% margin of safety. Valuation breakdown | The valuation gap narrows as earnings hold up over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGaming revenue can be volatile, and a very low multiple may reflect expected earnings declines; Communication Services carries a -0.8 sector modifier. | ||
DoubleDown has 33% margins, a wide moat and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, with quality scored 7.5/10. Quality breakdown | Margins and the Piotroski score stay high over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 78% of net income, flagged as an earnings-quality warning. | ||
At $13.24 the stock has 18.6% upside to the $15.70 analyst target against 5.0% downside to the $12.56 support level, a reward-to-risk of 3.72. Upside pct | Price moves toward the analyst target while holding above support. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light at 5 analysts, which dampens the signal. | ||
EPS beat in 2 and missed in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with surprises of +10.0% in August 2026 and -20.97% in February 2026, averaging -3.47%. Last 4 quarters | Earnings surprises turn consistently positive over the next four reports. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo misses in the last four quarters and a 3.5/10 catalyst score show earnings are not yet reliable. | ||
Momentum scores 3.1/10 with falling on-balance volume, a near-term pressure on a business otherwise rated 7.5/10 for quality. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above 4.5 as selling pressure fades, while the price stays above the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling volume distribution suggests informed holders are selling, so the weakness may persist. | ||
Forward P/E is 5.4x with a PEG of 0.11, and the stock is flagged with a 68% margin of safety.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation gap narrows as earnings hold up over the next 12 months.
CounterGaming revenue can be volatile, and a very low multiple may reflect expected earnings declines; Communication Services carries a -0.8 sector modifier.
DoubleDown has 33% margins, a wide moat and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, with quality scored 7.5/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins and the Piotroski score stay high over the next four quarters.
CounterFree cash flow is only 78% of net income, flagged as an earnings-quality warning.
At $13.24 the stock has 18.6% upside to the $15.70 analyst target against 5.0% downside to the $12.56 support level, a reward-to-risk of 3.72.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target while holding above support.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light at 5 analysts, which dampens the signal.
EPS beat in 2 and missed in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with surprises of +10.0% in August 2026 and -20.97% in February 2026, averaging -3.47%.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Earnings surprises turn consistently positive over the next four reports.
CounterTwo misses in the last four quarters and a 3.5/10 catalyst score show earnings are not yet reliable.
Momentum scores 3.1/10 with falling on-balance volume, a near-term pressure on a business otherwise rated 7.5/10 for quality.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 as selling pressure fades, while the price stays above the 200-day average.
CounterFalling volume distribution suggests informed holders are selling, so the weakness may persist.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 5.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 78% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 4.1 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.3 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Deep value: 67% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. (held at prior verdict — engine reading is near the momentum/RSI threshold; will commit on clearer signal).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|STABILIZER:PROMOTE_DEAD_ZONE|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Communication Services:5/10:self_excluded
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
2.99
Upside
+15.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.99.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.7, and Growth at 7.7; the weakest are Momentum at 4.5, Catalyst at 4.6, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.99 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 9x from the current 5.4x.
- P2High Quality Business
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 of 9 from the current 9.
- P3Analyst Target Asymmetry
Trip ifShare price falls below the $12.56 support level.
- P4Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Weak Momentum Temporary Headwind
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 2.0 from the current 3.1.