Value
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
DCBO · Why this verdict
Why Docebo (DCBO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Docebo is a high-quality software business with steady revenue growth and a consistent earnings beat streak, but the shares are overbought and already above the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue rose to $68.65M in June 2026, about 13.0% above the $60.73M of a year earlier, with growth in each of the last four quarters. Revenue quarters | Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 8% over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue figures are provisional from yfinance, and Technology carries a -0.8 sector modifier. | ||
Docebo shows a 195% return on equity, 129% free cash flow to net income, a wide moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | Returns and cash conversion stay high over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA 195% ROE can be inflated by a small equity base, and analyst coverage is light at 10. | ||
Docebo beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses and an average surprise of 12.09%, including 26.26% in February 2026. Last 4 quarters | Earnings keep beating estimates through the next four reports. | →Stable |
| CounterThe May 2026 quarter missed slightly at -2.19%, and the next report is only 13 days away. | ||
At $30.91 the stock is above the $26.06 analyst target (target-implied upside of -15.7%), so analysts see no upside from here. Estimated upside | Analysts raise targets above the share price within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith a quality score of 7.2 and a 13% revenue growth rate, targets may simply lag a business that is outperforming. | ||
RSI is 89 and the stock is within 1.2% of its 52-week high, an overbought reading despite momentum scoring 6.9/10. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above its 200-day average without a sharp reversal. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI at 89 is an extreme reading, and a technical score of only 3.7/10 points to a pullback risk. | ||
Quarterly revenue rose to $68.65M in June 2026, about 13.0% above the $60.73M of a year earlier, with growth in each of the last four quarters.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 8% over the next four quarters.
CounterRevenue figures are provisional from yfinance, and Technology carries a -0.8 sector modifier.
Docebo shows a 195% return on equity, 129% free cash flow to net income, a wide moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Returns and cash conversion stay high over the next four quarters.
CounterA 195% ROE can be inflated by a small equity base, and analyst coverage is light at 10.
Docebo beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses and an average surprise of 12.09%, including 26.26% in February 2026.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Earnings keep beating estimates through the next four reports.
CounterThe May 2026 quarter missed slightly at -2.19%, and the next report is only 13 days away.
At $30.91 the stock is above the $26.06 analyst target (target-implied upside of -15.7%), so analysts see no upside from here.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the share price within 12 months.
CounterWith a quality score of 7.2 and a 13% revenue growth rate, targets may simply lag a business that is outperforming.
RSI is 89 and the stock is within 1.2% of its 52-week high, an overbought reading despite momentum scoring 6.9/10.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above its 200-day average without a sharp reversal.
CounterRSI at 89 is an extreme reading, and a technical score of only 3.7/10 points to a pullback risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.6 |
| Net margin | 6.5 |
| Current ratio | 3.3 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 8.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 195%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 129% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 4.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 1.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.82
Upside
-12.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.9; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.9, Quality at 7.2, and Catalyst at 7.1; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1, Technical at 4.5, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Returns Profile
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 of 9 from the current 8.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Steady Revenue Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year quarterly revenue growth falls below 8% from the current 13.0%.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $35 from the current $26.06.
- P5Overbought Near High
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from the current 6.9.