Value
6.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.1x
DBX · Why this verdict
Why Dropbox (DBX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 9.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.4 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 173% FCF/NI
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
1.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.8 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.3 |
| erm sentiment | 3.0 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $6,298,092 (0.098% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 0.4 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 3.4 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.6 |
| beta | 9.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 27%
- ▸High IV: 76%
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.1 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:60d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.33
Upside
-17.3%
Downside
7.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (8.0) with weak momentum (3.8)
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.33 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.0, Value at 6.7, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 1.8, Momentum at 3.8, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.