Value
9.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
- ▸Attractively valued
CZNC · Why this verdict
Why Citizens & Northern (CZNC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Citizens & Northern is a cheaply valued, fast-growing regional bank near its 52-week high, but it already trades above the analyst target and earnings surprises have been uneven.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Forward P/E is 10.1x and the PEG ratio is 0.09, an attractive valuation for a bank with strong margins of 25%. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays near 10x while earnings continue to grow over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe share price is at a 52-week high with RSI near 77, so some of the value gap may have already closed. | ||
Growth is strong at 56% YoY and quarterly revenue of $41.57M is about 28% above the $32.45M of a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Revenue holds above $40M per quarter over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterReported revenue diverges 6.5% to 13.7% from the yfinance figures in every recent quarter, so the growth rate may be overstated. | ||
The stock is already above the $22.95 analyst target (target-implied upside of -17.3%), so there is no analyst-based upside. Estimated upside | Analysts raise targets above the current $27.75 price within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum score of 8.4/10 and an industry-leading growth rank suggest analyst targets are lagging the fundamentals. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, but the April 2026 report missed by 96.55%, giving an average surprise of -9.42%. Last 4 quarters | Earnings surprises stay positive for the next four reports. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe last two reports beat by 35.29% and 25.4%, showing the miss may have been a one-off. | ||
Momentum scores 8.4/10, but the stock is overbought with RSI at 77 and within 0.1% of its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | The uptrend persists above the 200-day average over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOverbought conditions near a 52-week high and a technical score of 3.4/10 raise the chance of a pullback. | ||
Forward P/E is 10.1x and the PEG ratio is 0.09, an attractive valuation for a bank with strong margins of 25%.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays near 10x while earnings continue to grow over 12 months.
CounterThe share price is at a 52-week high with RSI near 77, so some of the value gap may have already closed.
Growth is strong at 56% YoY and quarterly revenue of $41.57M is about 28% above the $32.45M of a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue holds above $40M per quarter over the next four quarters.
CounterReported revenue diverges 6.5% to 13.7% from the yfinance figures in every recent quarter, so the growth rate may be overstated.
The stock is already above the $22.95 analyst target (target-implied upside of -17.3%), so there is no analyst-based upside.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the current $27.75 price within 12 months.
CounterThe momentum score of 8.4/10 and an industry-leading growth rank suggest analyst targets are lagging the fundamentals.
EPS beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, but the April 2026 report missed by 96.55%, giving an average surprise of -9.42%.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Earnings surprises stay positive for the next four reports.
CounterThe last two reports beat by 35.29% and 25.4%, showing the miss may have been a one-off.
Momentum scores 8.4/10, but the stock is overbought with RSI at 77 and within 0.1% of its 52-week high.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The uptrend persists above the 200-day average over 12 months.
CounterOverbought conditions near a 52-week high and a technical score of 3.4/10 raise the chance of a pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 56% YoY
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $69,265 (0.014% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 9.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| implied vol | 1.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 69%
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.30
Upside
-16.5%
Downside
12.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Catalyst at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.0, and Momentum at 7.4; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.4, Technical at 4.2, and Sentiment at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 10.1x.
- P2Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifYear-over-year quarterly revenue growth falls below 10% from the current 28%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $30 from the current $22.95.
- P4Uneven Earnings Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Overbought Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from the current 8.4.