Value
5.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
CYRX · Why this verdict
Why CryoPort (CYRX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CryoPort has growing revenue and a breakout chart, but cash burn, geographic and supplier concentration, and a price already above the analyst target leave little upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At $17.98 the stock is above the $17.21 analyst target, with target-implied upside of -4.3% against 10.3% downside to the stop. Estimated upside | Analyst targets are raised above the share price within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA golden cross with the price above all averages suggests the market is re-rating ahead of analysts. | ||
Free cash flow is -8% of revenue even though the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8/9, so reported improvement is not yet reaching cash. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin improves to break-even within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company has no moat and quality scores only 3.0/10, so the Piotroski strength may not persist. | ||
Quarterly revenue of $48.97M for June 2026 is about 7.7% above the $45.45M of a year earlier and above the $44.2M of September 2025. Revenue quarters | Year-over-year revenue growth stays positive through the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe August 2026 EPS surprise was -9.09% and the growth score is only 4.4/10, so revenue gains are not converting into profit. | ||
74.5% of revenue comes from the Americas and key components come from sole-sourced manufacturers, concentrating operating risk. Bear case | Revenue mix diversifies and a second supplier is qualified within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterConcentration in the US market is partly a sign of strong core demand, and sole sourcing may be a stable long-term relationship. | ||
A golden cross with the price above all moving averages and momentum scored 6.6/10 supports a breakout setup. Chart pattern detection | Price holds above its moving averages and momentum stays above 5.5. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI is only 49 and the put/call ratio of 250.20 signals extreme options-market bearishness against the breakout. | ||
At $17.98 the stock is above the $17.21 analyst target, with target-implied upside of -4.3% against 10.3% downside to the stop.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above the share price within 12 months.
CounterA golden cross with the price above all averages suggests the market is re-rating ahead of analysts.
Free cash flow is -8% of revenue even though the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8/9, so reported improvement is not yet reaching cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin improves to break-even within 12 months.
CounterThe company has no moat and quality scores only 3.0/10, so the Piotroski strength may not persist.
Quarterly revenue of $48.97M for June 2026 is about 7.7% above the $45.45M of a year earlier and above the $44.2M of September 2025.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth stays positive through the next four quarters.
CounterThe August 2026 EPS surprise was -9.09% and the growth score is only 4.4/10, so revenue gains are not converting into profit.
74.5% of revenue comes from the Americas and key components come from sole-sourced manufacturers, concentrating operating risk.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue mix diversifies and a second supplier is qualified within 12 months.
CounterConcentration in the US market is partly a sign of strong core demand, and sole sourcing may be a stable long-term relationship.
A golden cross with the price above all moving averages and momentum scored 6.6/10 supports a breakout setup.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price holds above its moving averages and momentum stays above 5.5.
CounterRSI is only 49 and the put/call ratio of 250.20 signals extreme options-market bearishness against the breakout.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.4 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -8% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
4.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
2.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 0.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $429,385 (0.045% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
1.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.8 |
| beta | 3.5 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 6.99
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.57
Upside
-7.7%
Downside
13.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.96>1.3, MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.6=NEGATIVE outcome against Momentum at 7.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.57.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.0, Sentiment at 6.6, and Catalyst at 5.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 1.8, Insider at 2.5, and Quality at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $20 from the current $17.21.
- P2Cash Burn Despite Strong Piotroski
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below -15% of revenue from the current -8%.
- P3Steady Revenue Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year quarterly revenue growth falls below 3% from the current 7.7%.
- P4Geographic Supplier Concentration
Trip ifAmericas revenue share crosses 80% from the current 74.5%.
- P5Breakout Momentum Setup
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from the current 6.6.