Value
4.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
CYRX · Why this verdict
Why CryoPort (CYRX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Peer-rank notes flag the company as having best-in-class margins and being an industry growth leader, with a growth_rank of 8.46 out of 10 and 44% gross margins cited in the quality assessment. Peer-rank breakdown | Growth peer rank should remain elevated above 7 and revenue growth should continue at a healthy pace over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer-relative margin and growth strength can coexist with an operating margin that is deeply negative (-20.1% per the value-trap flag), meaning reported profitability doesn't yet match the peer-rank narrative. | ||
V9 flagged HEAVY insider selling, with 4 sell transactions totaling $3.62 million (0.464% of market cap) over the trailing 90 days, failing the INSIDER gate. Insider | Insider selling should decelerate, with net_value_90d moving back toward $0 or positive over the next 12 months if the selling was a one-off liquidity event. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider sales are often pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) executed for diversification or tax purposes and don't necessarily reflect a negative view of company prospects, especially since no C-level sales are recorded. | ||
The V9 asymmetry gate failed at -1.4 (negative), and the analyst target has effectively been reached, leaving only -12.3% modeled upside per the V8 warning. Reward-to-risk math | Asymmetry ratio should turn positive above 0 and modeled upside should turn positive over the next 12 months if new catalysts emerge beyond the current price target. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst price targets are frequently revised upward following continued execution, and a stock with an 8.46 growth peer-rank and consistent earnings beats could outgrow a stale target rather than being capped. | ||
A current ratio of 7.3 signals ample balance-sheet liquidity, supporting the quality profile alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 5.6. Current ratio | Current ratio should remain comfortably above 2.0x over the next 12 months, preserving balance-sheet flexibility. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh liquidity doesn't offset the reported operating margin compression (-20.1%) flagged as a value-trap signal; balance-sheet strength alone doesn't guarantee the core logistics business turns profitable. | ||
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +10.17%, most recently posting an in-line print. Earnings | The earnings beat rate should stay at or above 50% (2 of 4 quarters), with average surprise remaining positive over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe trailing average surprise is skewed by two large prior beats while the most recent quarter was only in-line and the quarter before that missed by -10.46%, so momentum in beat quality may be fading. | ||
Peer-rank notes flag the company as having best-in-class margins and being an industry growth leader, with a growth_rank of 8.46 out of 10 and 44% gross margins cited in the quality assessment.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth peer rank should remain elevated above 7 and revenue growth should continue at a healthy pace over the next 12 months.
CounterPeer-relative margin and growth strength can coexist with an operating margin that is deeply negative (-20.1% per the value-trap flag), meaning reported profitability doesn't yet match the peer-rank narrative.
V9 flagged HEAVY insider selling, with 4 sell transactions totaling $3.62 million (0.464% of market cap) over the trailing 90 days, failing the INSIDER gate.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling should decelerate, with net_value_90d moving back toward $0 or positive over the next 12 months if the selling was a one-off liquidity event.
CounterInsider sales are often pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) executed for diversification or tax purposes and don't necessarily reflect a negative view of company prospects, especially since no C-level sales are recorded.
The V9 asymmetry gate failed at -1.4 (negative), and the analyst target has effectively been reached, leaving only -12.3% modeled upside per the V8 warning.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Asymmetry ratio should turn positive above 0 and modeled upside should turn positive over the next 12 months if new catalysts emerge beyond the current price target.
CounterAnalyst price targets are frequently revised upward following continued execution, and a stock with an 8.46 growth peer-rank and consistent earnings beats could outgrow a stale target rather than being capped.
A current ratio of 7.3 signals ample balance-sheet liquidity, supporting the quality profile alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 5.6.
→StableCurrent ratio
- Expectation
- Current ratio should remain comfortably above 2.0x over the next 12 months, preserving balance-sheet flexibility.
CounterHigh liquidity doesn't offset the reported operating margin compression (-20.1%) flagged as a value-trap signal; balance-sheet strength alone doesn't guarantee the core logistics business turns profitable.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +10.17%, most recently posting an in-line print.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat rate should stay at or above 50% (2 of 4 quarters), with average surprise remaining positive over the next four quarters.
CounterThe trailing average surprise is skewed by two large prior beats while the most recent quarter was only in-line and the quarter before that missed by -10.46%, so momentum in beat quality may be fading.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CryoPort screens as a peer-leading margin and growth story, but heavy insider selling, a failed asymmetry gate, and a stale analyst target leave the engine cautious despite a comfortable balance sheet and a positive earnings-surprise track record.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.4 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Strong margins: 44%
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.4 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,622,999 (0.472% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 0.7 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 1.8 |
| beta | 3.7 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸High IV: 69%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.6 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.47%=HEAVY
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.17
Upside
-11.0%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.89>1.3, MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 6.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE, INSIDER:0.47%=HEAVY) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.17 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 6.6, Technical at 6.2, and Catalyst at 5.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.6, Peer rank at 4.3, and Quality at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Growth Leader Margins
Trip ifGrowth peer rank falls below 5.0 (from the current 8.46), or operating margin stays negative beyond -20% for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P2Material Insider Selling Heavy Gate
Trip ifNet insider value over 90 days turns positive, rising above $0, reversing the current -$3.6 million net-selling trend.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Limited Upside
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0.5 (from -1.4) and modeled upside exceeds 10%, turning positive.
- P4Strong Liquidity Current Ratio
Trip ifCurrent ratio falls below 2.0x, down from the current 7.3x level.
- P5Consistent Earnings Beat History
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls to 0 of the next 4 quarters, or average surprise falls below -20%.