Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
CTEV · Why this verdict
Why Claritev (CTEV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Claritev trades at an extremely low forward P/E of 4.8x and a PEG of 0.03, screening as one of the cheapest names in coverage on a headline basis. Bull case | The PEG ratio stays below 0.2 and forward P/E remains under 10x over the next 12 months if the cheap multiple is sustained rather than reflecting collapsing estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterThe analyst target has already been reached with only -1.8% theoretical upside, and 3 consecutive earnings misses suggest the cheap multiple reflects deteriorating fundamentals, not a bargain. | ||
A news-based modifier moved the recommendation from hold-if-holding to sell-if-holding, reflecting a fresh negative catalyst that offsets the statistical value case. Warnings | The news modifier reverts to neutral or positive within 2 quarters if the underlying concern proves transient. | →Stable |
| CounterA negative news modifier combined with a confirmed technical downtrend (-13.9%/30d MA slope) suggests the catalyst may be the start of a more durable negative trend rather than a one-off event. | ||
Claritev is FCF-positive despite a GAAP loss, with an FCF yield of 19.6%, though it fails the Rule of 40 threshold at a score of 17. Quality breakdown | Rule of 40 score improves above 25 within 12 months as either revenue growth or FCF margin strengthens. | →Stable |
| CounterA GAAP loss alongside 3 consecutive earnings misses raises the risk that the current FCF-positive status could reverse if working-capital or one-time items normalize. | ||
Insiders have made modest net purchases of $493,445 (0.089% of market cap), a mildly bullish signal amid an otherwise negative news and technical backdrop. Insider breakdown | Insider buying activity continues or accelerates over the next 90-day window, reinforcing the bullish signal. | →Stable |
| CounterAt just 0.089% of market cap, this insider buying is modest enough that it may not offset the confirmed technical downtrend and consecutive earnings misses. | ||
Claritev's asymmetry ratio is negative at -0.12, with downside of 15.0% exceeding the modest theoretical upside case, which is why the engine produces a HOLD output rather than adding. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio turns positive within 2 quarters for the setup to become attractive again. | →Stable |
| CounterWith 3 consecutive earnings misses already realized, the risk/reward could continue to deteriorate rather than mean-revert toward positive asymmetry. | ||
Claritev trades at an extremely low forward P/E of 4.8x and a PEG of 0.03, screening as one of the cheapest names in coverage on a headline basis.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio stays below 0.2 and forward P/E remains under 10x over the next 12 months if the cheap multiple is sustained rather than reflecting collapsing estimates.
CounterThe analyst target has already been reached with only -1.8% theoretical upside, and 3 consecutive earnings misses suggest the cheap multiple reflects deteriorating fundamentals, not a bargain.
A news-based modifier moved the recommendation from hold-if-holding to sell-if-holding, reflecting a fresh negative catalyst that offsets the statistical value case.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The news modifier reverts to neutral or positive within 2 quarters if the underlying concern proves transient.
CounterA negative news modifier combined with a confirmed technical downtrend (-13.9%/30d MA slope) suggests the catalyst may be the start of a more durable negative trend rather than a one-off event.
Claritev is FCF-positive despite a GAAP loss, with an FCF yield of 19.6%, though it fails the Rule of 40 threshold at a score of 17.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Rule of 40 score improves above 25 within 12 months as either revenue growth or FCF margin strengthens.
CounterA GAAP loss alongside 3 consecutive earnings misses raises the risk that the current FCF-positive status could reverse if working-capital or one-time items normalize.
Insiders have made modest net purchases of $493,445 (0.089% of market cap), a mildly bullish signal amid an otherwise negative news and technical backdrop.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider buying activity continues or accelerates over the next 90-day window, reinforcing the bullish signal.
CounterAt just 0.089% of market cap, this insider buying is modest enough that it may not offset the confirmed technical downtrend and consecutive earnings misses.
Claritev's asymmetry ratio is negative at -0.12, with downside of 15.0% exceeding the modest theoretical upside case, which is why the engine produces a HOLD output rather than adding.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio turns positive within 2 quarters for the setup to become attractive again.
CounterWith 3 consecutive earnings misses already realized, the risk/reward could continue to deteriorate rather than mean-revert toward positive asymmetry.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Claritev screens as deeply undervalued on headline multiples with modest insider buying, but a fresh negative news modifier, a confirmed technical downtrend, 3 consecutive earnings misses, and negative asymmetry keep the engine's stance at hold rather than buy.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 11%, FCF yield 19.3%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 17 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -14.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.5 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
- ▸High IV: 97%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.01
Upside
+0.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -57% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.01 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Growth at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Technical at 3.5, and Momentum at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Cheap Multiple
Trip ifClaritev posts a fourth consecutive earnings miss with a surprise that falls below -10%, confirming the cheap multiple reflects ongoing deterioration.
- P2Negative News Modifier Downgrade
Trip ifThe stock's news modifier stays below 0 for 2 more consecutive quarterly refreshes.
- P3Cash Flow Quality Signal
Trip ifFCF yield falls below 10% or the Rule of 40 score drops below 10 at the next quarterly assessment.
- P4Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifThe insider signal flips to net selling, or net buying value falls below $100,000 in the next 90-day window.
- P5Negative Asymmetry Hold Signal
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio stays below -0.3 for 2 consecutive quarterly refreshes.