Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 5.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.29
- ▸Attractively valued
CTBI · Why this verdict
Why Community Trust Bancorp (CTBI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Community Trust Bancorp offers an attractively valued regional bank at a forward P/E of 11.0x with a PEG of 0.48, strong 37% net margins, and three earnings beats in the last four quarters, but the stock is just 1% below its take-profit resistance level with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.22, and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.67 signals that options participants are positioned defensively, collectively favoring patience over new accumulation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 11.0x and a PEG of 0.48, the stock screens inexpensively relative to its earnings trajectory, providing a valuation floor that limits downside even if growth moderates. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates remain stable or grow over the next two reporting cycles, preserving the discount implied by the 11x multiple. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNet interest margin compression risk if rates decline could erode the earnings base that underpins the apparent discount; light analyst coverage of only 3 analysts makes the consensus target a less reliable valuation anchor than for more widely followed peers. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters — including the two most recent prints back to back — with surprises averaging roughly 4.7%, suggesting management delivers reliably against street expectations. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters with average surprise above 3%, confirming the recent delivery cadence is sustainable. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe third-most-recent quarter was a 4.6% miss, showing the streak is not unbroken; a regional bank is exposed to credit loss provisioning and net interest margin compression that can quickly erode surprise capacity if economic conditions soften. | ||
A put/call ratio of 1.67 and implied volatility of 140% indicate that options market participants are positioned meaningfully to the downside, which can be an early signal of institutional caution ahead of a fundamental development. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 0.8 over the next 60 days as defensive positioning unwinds, signaling reduced near-term risk perception. | →Stable |
| CounterFor a small-cap regional bank with limited options liquidity, a high put/call ratio may reflect hedging by a single large position holder rather than broad institutional concern; the signal may be idiosyncratic rather than consensus-informed. | ||
With only 1% upside remaining to the take-profit resistance level of $69.53 and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.22, the current price offers far more downside than upside within the identified range, making new entry unattractive. Price targets | The setup becomes more favorable only if analyst targets are raised above $76, creating more than 10% upside from the current $68.82. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong technical momentum — golden cross, RSI at 57, MACD bullish — could carry the stock through the resistance level and force consensus targets higher, turning the upside calculus more positive without requiring any change in fundamentals. | ||
At a forward P/E of 11.0x and a PEG of 0.48, the stock screens inexpensively relative to its earnings trajectory, providing a valuation floor that limits downside even if growth moderates.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates remain stable or grow over the next two reporting cycles, preserving the discount implied by the 11x multiple.
CounterNet interest margin compression risk if rates decline could erode the earnings base that underpins the apparent discount; light analyst coverage of only 3 analysts makes the consensus target a less reliable valuation anchor than for more widely followed peers.
The company has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters — including the two most recent prints back to back — with surprises averaging roughly 4.7%, suggesting management delivers reliably against street expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters with average surprise above 3%, confirming the recent delivery cadence is sustainable.
CounterThe third-most-recent quarter was a 4.6% miss, showing the streak is not unbroken; a regional bank is exposed to credit loss provisioning and net interest margin compression that can quickly erode surprise capacity if economic conditions soften.
A put/call ratio of 1.67 and implied volatility of 140% indicate that options market participants are positioned meaningfully to the downside, which can be an early signal of institutional caution ahead of a fundamental development.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 0.8 over the next 60 days as defensive positioning unwinds, signaling reduced near-term risk perception.
CounterFor a small-cap regional bank with limited options liquidity, a high put/call ratio may reflect hedging by a single large position holder rather than broad institutional concern; the signal may be idiosyncratic rather than consensus-informed.
With only 1% upside remaining to the take-profit resistance level of $69.53 and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.22, the current price offers far more downside than upside within the identified range, making new entry unattractive.
Tripped↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- The setup becomes more favorable only if analyst targets are raised above $76, creating more than 10% upside from the current $68.82.
CounterStrong technical momentum — golden cross, RSI at 57, MACD bullish — could carry the stock through the resistance level and force consensus targets higher, turning the upside calculus more positive without requiring any change in fundamentals.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 38%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 3.7 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $307,532 (0.024% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 6.3 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.7 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 3.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Critical news event: fraud..
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:82d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.26
Upside
-7.8%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Critical news event: fraud.. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 7.0 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0, and Technical at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Growth at 3.7, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation With Earnings Support
Trip ifConsensus forward EPS estimates are cut by more than 15% over 2 consecutive reporting cycles, pushing the implied forward P/E above 13x at current price levels.
- P3Elevated Options Defensive Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 0.8 for 4 consecutive weeks, falsifying the defensively-positioned concern.
- P4Minimal Upside At ResistanceTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus target rises above $76, creating more than 10% upside from the current $68.82 and restoring a positive risk/reward profile.