Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 8.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.83
- ▸Attractively valued
CSV · Why this verdict
Why Carriage Services (CSV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Carriage Services trades at an attractive forward P/E of 10.4x (PEG 0.83) with 34% analyst-implied upside, and the engine's own risk/reward framework shows 33.8% upside versus only 6.8% downside. Bull case | Price appreciates toward the analyst target, narrowing the upside gap to under 15% within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bear case flags a weak overall score of 4.8/10 and 2 consecutive earnings misses, suggesting the market may be discounting further deterioration rather than mispricing value. | ||
Carriage Services has failed both the momentum gate (3.9, below the 4.5 threshold) and triggered a hard death-cross block, confirming active negative price momentum. Warnings | Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and the death-cross gate clears within 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA -1.6%/30-day 200-day moving-average slope, while confirmed as a downtrend, is a relatively mild slope compared to peers with the same gate failure, suggesting the technical damage could be limited. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.0 triggers a leverage penalty of -1.5 points in the engine's scoring, reflecting balance-sheet risk that could amplify downside in a downturn. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 1.5 within the next 2 fiscal quarters as the company delevers. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh leverage combined with 2 consecutive earnings misses could compound rather than resolve, especially if earnings continue to disappoint and cash flow available for debt service shrinks. | ||
Carriage Services has split its last 4 quarters evenly between beats and misses, with an average surprise near flat, indicating estimate uncertainty rather than a clear positive or negative trend. Earnings | The company beats consensus at its next earnings report, tilting the recent track record positive. | →Stable |
| CounterA flat average surprise combined with 2 consecutive misses recently could indicate the trend is deteriorating from prior beats toward a more consistent miss pattern. | ||
The engine's catalyst dimension flags earnings concerns alongside dividend metrics, an area worth monitoring given the leveraged balance sheet. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend payments continue uninterrupted and the payout remains covered by free cash flow over the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh leverage combined with earnings concerns raises the risk that the dividend could be cut if free cash flow deteriorates further. | ||
Carriage Services trades at an attractive forward P/E of 10.4x (PEG 0.83) with 34% analyst-implied upside, and the engine's own risk/reward framework shows 33.8% upside versus only 6.8% downside.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Price appreciates toward the analyst target, narrowing the upside gap to under 15% within 12 months.
CounterThe bear case flags a weak overall score of 4.8/10 and 2 consecutive earnings misses, suggesting the market may be discounting further deterioration rather than mispricing value.
Carriage Services has failed both the momentum gate (3.9, below the 4.5 threshold) and triggered a hard death-cross block, confirming active negative price momentum.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 4.5 and the death-cross gate clears within 2 quarters.
CounterA -1.6%/30-day 200-day moving-average slope, while confirmed as a downtrend, is a relatively mild slope compared to peers with the same gate failure, suggesting the technical damage could be limited.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.0 triggers a leverage penalty of -1.5 points in the engine's scoring, reflecting balance-sheet risk that could amplify downside in a downturn.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 1.5 within the next 2 fiscal quarters as the company delevers.
CounterHigh leverage combined with 2 consecutive earnings misses could compound rather than resolve, especially if earnings continue to disappoint and cash flow available for debt service shrinks.
Carriage Services has split its last 4 quarters evenly between beats and misses, with an average surprise near flat, indicating estimate uncertainty rather than a clear positive or negative trend.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus at its next earnings report, tilting the recent track record positive.
CounterA flat average surprise combined with 2 consecutive misses recently could indicate the trend is deteriorating from prior beats toward a more consistent miss pattern.
The engine's catalyst dimension flags earnings concerns alongside dividend metrics, an area worth monitoring given the leveraged balance sheet.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend payments continue uninterrupted and the payout remains covered by free cash flow over the next 2 quarters.
CounterHigh leverage combined with earnings concerns raises the risk that the dividend could be cut if free cash flow deteriorates further.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Carriage Services screens as attractively valued with meaningful analyst-implied upside, but a failed momentum gate, a hard death-cross technical block, elevated leverage, and a mixed recent earnings track record keep the setup risk-laden despite the value case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 9.6 |
| Net margin | 5.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 56%
Insider
7.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.8 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.1 |
| support resistance | 6.6 |
| 52w position | 4.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.2 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 3.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸High IV: 61%
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:5.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.84
Upside
+35.9%
Downside
6.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 5.84 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Insider at 7.4, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Growth at 1.1, Peer rank at 3.2, and Momentum at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.84 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Valuation Analyst Upside
Trip ifCarriage Services posts a third consecutive earnings miss, or the overall score falls below 4.0.
- P2Momentum Death Cross Risk
Trip ifThe stock closes below the 200-day moving average for more than 90 consecutive days without the death-cross gate clearing.
- P3Leverage Balance Sheet Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 2.5, or the company misses earnings for a third consecutive quarter.
- P4Mixed Earnings Track Record
Trip ifCarriage Services misses consensus EPS estimates by more than 5% for a third consecutive quarter at its next report.
- P5Dividend Safety Risk
Trip ifThe company cuts or suspends its dividend, or free cash flow coverage of the dividend falls below 1.0x.