Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 9.1 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.65
- ▸Attractively valued
CSV · Why this verdict
Why Carriage Services (CSV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Carriage Services is a cheaply valued funeral and cemetery operator with steady revenue and a 25.3% gap to the analyst target, held back by 3 straight earnings misses, leverage, slow growth and a stock below a falling 200-day average.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Leverage carries a penalty with debt-to-equity of 2.0, and the debt-to-equity risk component scores only 3.1/10. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should fall below 1.8 as cash flow is used to pay down debt. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFuneral and cemetery cash flows are predictable, and an operating margin component of 9.3/10 supports debt service even at this leverage. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average, which is sloping down 3.3% per 30 days, but rising on-balance volume and a MACD component of 10 show buyers returning. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim its 200-day average with volume accumulation continuing. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death cross remains in place and RSI near 66 after a bounce could mark a rally within a downtrend rather than a reversal. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.7x and a PEG of 0.58, with the $35.41 price 25.3% below the $44.37 analyst target. Valuation breakdown | Price should close part of the gap to the $44.37 target over the next 12 months as earnings stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterThe discount may be earned, since earnings have missed for 3 quarters, growth ranks at the bottom of peers, and the engine's analyst target already includes a 13% haircut. | ||
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.78 against $0.82 in August 2026, with average surprise of -2.8%. Last 4 quarters | EPS should land at or above estimates in the report due in 11 days. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe misses are small (-1.8% to -7.2%) and earlier quarters beat by as much as 57%, so the shortfall may reflect conservative guidance rather than a deteriorating business. | ||
Quarterly revenue has held in a narrow $102M to $107M range, with the latest $102.9M versus $102.1M a year earlier, and the growth score is just 2.8. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should reach the $109.5M next-quarter estimate and show year-over-year growth. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFlat revenue for 6 quarters suggests a mature, volume-limited business with no moat, and growth ranks at the bottom of peers. | ||
Leverage carries a penalty with debt-to-equity of 2.0, and the debt-to-equity risk component scores only 3.1/10.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should fall below 1.8 as cash flow is used to pay down debt.
CounterFuneral and cemetery cash flows are predictable, and an operating margin component of 9.3/10 supports debt service even at this leverage.
The stock is below its 200-day average, which is sloping down 3.3% per 30 days, but rising on-balance volume and a MACD component of 10 show buyers returning.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim its 200-day average with volume accumulation continuing.
CounterA death cross remains in place and RSI near 66 after a bounce could mark a rally within a downtrend rather than a reversal.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.7x and a PEG of 0.58, with the $35.41 price 25.3% below the $44.37 analyst target.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap to the $44.37 target over the next 12 months as earnings stabilize.
CounterThe discount may be earned, since earnings have missed for 3 quarters, growth ranks at the bottom of peers, and the engine's analyst target already includes a 13% haircut.
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.78 against $0.82 in August 2026, with average surprise of -2.8%.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should land at or above estimates in the report due in 11 days.
CounterThe misses are small (-1.8% to -7.2%) and earlier quarters beat by as much as 57%, so the shortfall may reflect conservative guidance rather than a deteriorating business.
Quarterly revenue has held in a narrow $102M to $107M range, with the latest $102.9M versus $102.1M a year earlier, and the growth score is just 2.8.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should reach the $109.5M next-quarter estimate and show year-over-year growth.
CounterFlat revenue for 6 quarters suggests a mature, volume-limited business with no moat, and growth ranks at the bottom of peers.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.8 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 9.3 |
| Net margin | 5.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.4 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 8.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 4.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 3.1 |
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.2% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.49
Upside
+21.8%
Downside
14.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.49 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 2.5, Growth at 2.8, and Catalyst at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.49 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation With Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $38.90, leaving less than 10% upside from the current $35.41.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters, extending the miss streak to 5.
- P3Stable Revenue Limited Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $100M from the current $102.9M.
- P4Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity rises above 2.5 from the current 2.0.
- P5Downtrend With Improving Volume
Trip ifPrice falls below the $33.03 stop level, more than 6% under the current $35.41.