Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| PEG | 9.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.54
- ▸Attractively valued
CRMD · Why this verdict
Why CorMedix (CRMD) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CorMedix is a newly profitable biotech with elite margins, 156% revenue growth and a 69.9% gap to the analyst target, but revenue depends on three customers, earnings are expected to fall about 83% from a peak, and short interest is 20%.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is high at 9.3/10, with ROE of 55%, margins of 40%, a Rule of 40 score of 195 and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay near 40% and ROE above 30% as the commercial launch matures over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterProfitability this high comes from a single product launch and may normalize quickly, as the next-quarter revenue estimate of $53.2M is about half the latest quarter's $101.9M. | ||
The top three customers are 79.0% of revenue and earnings are expected to decline about 83% from what the engine flags as a cyclical peak, with forward P/E of 22.4x against a much lower trailing multiple. Bear case | Customer concentration should fall below 70% and earnings should decline less than expected as new customers are added. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA forward P/E of 22.4x already prices in the decline, and an expected earnings drop after a one-time launch spike may be well understood by the market. | ||
The $7.85 price is 69.9% below the $13.34 analyst target, with a risk-reward ratio of 6.86. Analyst target | Price should close part of the gap to the $13.34 target over the next 12 months as results beat estimates. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCoverage is light at 6 analysts, so the target is a dampened signal, and a forecast earnings decline of 83% could drive targets lower. | ||
Revenue growth is 156% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $101.9M versus $39.7M a year earlier, making CorMedix an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should stay above $100M, rather than falling to the $53.2M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue fell from $127.4M to $101.9M last quarter, and the next-quarter estimate of $53.2M implies the launch spike is already fading. | ||
Short interest is 20% of float with quality at 7.5, which the data flags as a short squeeze setup, while implied volatility is 90%. Risk breakdown | Short interest should decline as results confirm the profitability, relieving selling pressure. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterShorts are betting on the expected 83% earnings drop and customer concentration, and a squeeze requires a catalyst that may not come. | ||
Quality is high at 9.3/10, with ROE of 55%, margins of 40%, a Rule of 40 score of 195 and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay near 40% and ROE above 30% as the commercial launch matures over the next 12 months.
CounterProfitability this high comes from a single product launch and may normalize quickly, as the next-quarter revenue estimate of $53.2M is about half the latest quarter's $101.9M.
The top three customers are 79.0% of revenue and earnings are expected to decline about 83% from what the engine flags as a cyclical peak, with forward P/E of 22.4x against a much lower trailing multiple.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Customer concentration should fall below 70% and earnings should decline less than expected as new customers are added.
CounterA forward P/E of 22.4x already prices in the decline, and an expected earnings drop after a one-time launch spike may be well understood by the market.
The $7.85 price is 69.9% below the $13.34 analyst target, with a risk-reward ratio of 6.86.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap to the $13.34 target over the next 12 months as results beat estimates.
CounterCoverage is light at 6 analysts, so the target is a dampened signal, and a forecast earnings decline of 83% could drive targets lower.
Revenue growth is 156% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $101.9M versus $39.7M a year earlier, making CorMedix an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay above $100M, rather than falling to the $53.2M next-quarter estimate.
CounterRevenue fell from $127.4M to $101.9M last quarter, and the next-quarter estimate of $53.2M implies the launch spike is already fading.
Short interest is 20% of float with quality at 7.5, which the data flags as a short squeeze setup, while implied volatility is 90%.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline as results confirm the profitability, relieving selling pressure.
CounterShorts are betting on the expected 83% earnings drop and customer concentration, and a squeeze requires a catalyst that may not come.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 55%
- ▸Strong margins: 40%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
6.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.3 |
- ▸Strong growth: 156% YoY
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 89%
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.3 |
| quality rank | 9.1 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 2.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 19% short, quality 7.5
- ▸High IV: 85%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C_QUALITY_VALUE_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.99
Upside
+64.7%
Downside
13.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The C-path quality+value combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 9.3 and value 8.7 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 4.99 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 9.3, Value at 8.7, and Sentiment at 7.8; the weakest are Technical at 2.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0, and Insider at 6.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.99 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Profitability And Returns
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% from the current 40%.
- P2Customer Concentration And Earnings Peak
Trip ifTop three customers' share of revenue exceeds 85% from the current 79.0%.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $8.60, leaving less than 10% upside from the current $7.85.
- P4Explosive Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $53M, the next-quarter estimate, from the current $101.9M.
- P5High Short Interest Squeeze Setup
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% of float from the current 20%.