Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
CRD-A · Why this verdict
Why Crawford & (CRD-A) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Value scores strongly at 8.4, with the notes flagging the stock as attractively valued at an 11.6x forward P/E and an extremely low 0.07 PEG ratio. Valuation breakdown | The value score should hold near 8.4 as the low multiple persists over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA peer growth rank of 0.0, at the bottom of its peer group, suggests the cheap PEG ratio may be an artifact of a shrinking earnings base rather than durable value. | ||
The bear case flags 3 of 5 value-trap signals, citing revenue declining 32% year-over-year, operating margin compression to -673.9%, and negative free cash flow. Bear case | If this risk holds, expect revenue and margins to remain under pressure over the next few reported periods. | →Stable |
| CounterThe growth notes elsewhere in the same record cite a much smaller revenue decline of just -1%, a notable inconsistency with the -32% figure in the value-trap flag, which raises the possibility the value-trap language reflects a data or template error rather than the company's true trajectory. | ||
The analyst target has effectively already been reached (-2.9% modeled upside), and both the momentum gate (4.4 versus a 4.5 threshold) and the asymmetry gate (-0.31 ratio) failed, despite a golden-cross breakout setup with RSI at 52 and a bullish MACD. Engine gate (failed) | For the setup to become actionable, momentum needs to clear 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio needs to turn positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe breakout is confirmed by price sitting above all major moving averages, and the gate failures are narrow (momentum missed by just 0.1), suggesting the setup is close to turning constructive. | ||
Earnings have been mixed over the last four quarters, with 1 beat (14.29%), 2 misses (-6.25%, -8.33%), and 1 in-line result, producing a trailing average surprise near zero (-0.10%). Earnings | If this pattern holds, expect continued alternation between beats, misses, and in-line results in upcoming reporting periods, including the report due in 30 days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter came in exactly in-line with estimates, which could indicate improving forecasting accuracy rather than continued volatility. | ||
The insider signal reads bearish, with $660,005 in net insider selling over 90 days (0.119% of market cap) across 9 sell transactions and zero buys, described as 'notable' selling. Insider breakdown | The insider signal should shift away from bearish, with a resumption of insider buying or a decline in sell activity, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNone of the selling came from C-level executives, so the activity may reflect routine diversification by non-executive holders rather than a strong negative signal. | ||
Value scores strongly at 8.4, with the notes flagging the stock as attractively valued at an 11.6x forward P/E and an extremely low 0.07 PEG ratio.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should hold near 8.4 as the low multiple persists over the next 12 months.
CounterA peer growth rank of 0.0, at the bottom of its peer group, suggests the cheap PEG ratio may be an artifact of a shrinking earnings base rather than durable value.
The bear case flags 3 of 5 value-trap signals, citing revenue declining 32% year-over-year, operating margin compression to -673.9%, and negative free cash flow.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If this risk holds, expect revenue and margins to remain under pressure over the next few reported periods.
CounterThe growth notes elsewhere in the same record cite a much smaller revenue decline of just -1%, a notable inconsistency with the -32% figure in the value-trap flag, which raises the possibility the value-trap language reflects a data or template error rather than the company's true trajectory.
The analyst target has effectively already been reached (-2.9% modeled upside), and both the momentum gate (4.4 versus a 4.5 threshold) and the asymmetry gate (-0.31 ratio) failed, despite a golden-cross breakout setup with RSI at 52 and a bullish MACD.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- For the setup to become actionable, momentum needs to clear 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio needs to turn positive over the next 12 months.
CounterThe breakout is confirmed by price sitting above all major moving averages, and the gate failures are narrow (momentum missed by just 0.1), suggesting the setup is close to turning constructive.
Earnings have been mixed over the last four quarters, with 1 beat (14.29%), 2 misses (-6.25%, -8.33%), and 1 in-line result, producing a trailing average surprise near zero (-0.10%).
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- If this pattern holds, expect continued alternation between beats, misses, and in-line results in upcoming reporting periods, including the report due in 30 days.
CounterThe most recent quarter came in exactly in-line with estimates, which could indicate improving forecasting accuracy rather than continued volatility.
The insider signal reads bearish, with $660,005 in net insider selling over 90 days (0.119% of market cap) across 9 sell transactions and zero buys, described as 'notable' selling.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift away from bearish, with a resumption of insider buying or a decline in sell activity, over the next 12 months.
CounterNone of the selling came from C-level executives, so the activity may reflect routine diversification by non-executive holders rather than a strong negative signal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Crawford & Company screens cheap on a PEG basis with a technical breakout underway, but a value-trap flag citing a steep revenue decline sits in tension with milder growth data elsewhere in the record, the target-reached setup has failed both the momentum and asymmetry gates, earnings have been mixed, and insiders have been notable net sellers, keeping conviction and position sizing at essentially zero.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 1.8 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 373% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $660,005 (0.120% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 0.7 |
| beta | 9.4 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.5 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.13
Upside
+1.2%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.4 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Technical at 7.4, and Growth at 6.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.1, Catalyst at 3.1, and Momentum at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation On Peg Basis
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 from the current 8.4 as the multiple normalizes.
- P2Value Trap Flag With Data Discrepancy
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above -5% YoY, well inside the milder decline cited elsewhere in the data, contradicting the -32% value-trap flag.
- P3Target Reached With Failed Gates
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 and asymmetry ratio rises above 0, clearing both failed gates.
- P4Mixed Earnings Track Record
Trip ifEarnings surprise rises above 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the current mixed track record.
- P5Notable Bearish Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider buying exceeds $300,000 over a 90-day window, reversing the current bearish signal.