Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
CRD-A · Why this verdict
Why Crawford & (CRD-A) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Crawford & Company is a cheap, cash-generative insurance claims services firm with flat revenue and no moat, trading just 2.7% below its analyst target, so little upside remains and quality sits at the 4.0 floor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cash conversion is excellent at 246% FCF to net income, but the business has no competitive moat and a Piotroski F-Score of only 4.4 on the 10-point scale. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should continue to exceed net income and fund dividends and debt service. | →Stable |
| CounterA 246% ratio on a small net income base overstates cash strength, and debt-to-equity scores only 4.1/10, so leverage limits how much cash reaches shareholders. | ||
The $12.42 price is only 2.7% below the $12.75 analyst target, while the stop level sits 8.7% below, so reward is smaller than risk at current levels. Analyst target | Analyst targets should be raised above the current price as earnings recover, or the price should consolidate near the target. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalysts see 21% upside before the engine's haircut to the target, so the published targets may be well above the $12.75 used here. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.0x and a PEG of 0.14, with the price-to-sales component at the maximum 10.0. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings should be delivered so the forward multiple stays near or below 11x as the price rises. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.14 rests on an earnings rebound from a low base, and margins are thin (net margin component 0.9/10), so the multiple may be justified. | ||
The August 2026 quarter beat at $0.38 versus a $0.22 estimate, but across the last 4 quarters there were 2 beats, 1 miss and 1 in-line result. Last 4 quarters | EPS should come in at or above estimates in the report due in 9 days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe last 12 quarters hold 6 misses, so the large August beat may be an exception rather than a trend. | ||
Quarterly revenue is flat, with the latest $330.0M versus $334.6M a year earlier and a $328.5M next-quarter estimate, matching a growth score driven only by earnings. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should return to year-over-year growth above $334.6M. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue has held in a $309M to $358M range for 3 years, so growth depends on catastrophe claim volume rather than a structural trend. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 246% FCF to net income, but the business has no competitive moat and a Piotroski F-Score of only 4.4 on the 10-point scale.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should continue to exceed net income and fund dividends and debt service.
CounterA 246% ratio on a small net income base overstates cash strength, and debt-to-equity scores only 4.1/10, so leverage limits how much cash reaches shareholders.
The $12.42 price is only 2.7% below the $12.75 analyst target, while the stop level sits 8.7% below, so reward is smaller than risk at current levels.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised above the current price as earnings recover, or the price should consolidate near the target.
CounterAnalysts see 21% upside before the engine's haircut to the target, so the published targets may be well above the $12.75 used here.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.0x and a PEG of 0.14, with the price-to-sales component at the maximum 10.0.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings should be delivered so the forward multiple stays near or below 11x as the price rises.
CounterA PEG of 0.14 rests on an earnings rebound from a low base, and margins are thin (net margin component 0.9/10), so the multiple may be justified.
The August 2026 quarter beat at $0.38 versus a $0.22 estimate, but across the last 4 quarters there were 2 beats, 1 miss and 1 in-line result.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should come in at or above estimates in the report due in 9 days.
CounterThe last 12 quarters hold 6 misses, so the large August beat may be an exception rather than a trend.
Quarterly revenue is flat, with the latest $330.0M versus $334.6M a year earlier and a $328.5M next-quarter estimate, matching a growth score driven only by earnings.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should return to year-over-year growth above $334.6M.
CounterRevenue has held in a $309M to $358M range for 3 years, so growth depends on catastrophe claim volume rather than a structural trend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 1.7 |
| Op margin | 3.0 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 246% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
6.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.6 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 4.8 |
| volatility | 1.1 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.36
Upside
+3.3%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.4<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 8.5 and asymmetric R:R of 0.36.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Technical at 7.1, and Insider at 6.9; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.0, Quality at 4.0, and Momentum at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Nearly Reached
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $13.40, giving more than 5% upside from the current $12.42.
- P2Cheap Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 11.0x.
- P3Excellent Cash Conversion No Moat
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 100% of net income from the current 246%.
- P4Mixed Earnings Record Strong Latest Quarter
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Flat Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $320M from the current $330.0M.