Value
9.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
COUR · Why this verdict
Why Coursera (COUR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Coursera is a deeply discounted online-education name with a 6.2x forward P/E, heavy insider buying and 60% growth, but it is 59% below its 52-week high, in a confirmed downtrend, with quality just under the floor and heavy put activity.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 3.9, just below the 4.0 floor, with return and margin components at 0.0 offset by a 41% free cash flow margin and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | Net and operating margin components should move off 0.0 and the quality score should rise above 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterA 41% FCF margin alongside zero reported margins implies cash flow is boosted by non-cash charges or deferred revenue, which may not persist. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 6.2x and a PEG of 0.03, with the $5.08 price 36.1% below the $6.91 analyst target. Valuation breakdown | Price should close part of the gap to the $6.91 target over the next 12 months as growth is converted to earnings. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 59% drawdown from the 52-week high shows the market doubts the earnings, and a 6.2x forward multiple may reflect expected earnings declines. | ||
Insiders bought $11.4M of stock over the last 90 days against only $0.1M of sales, a net $11.25M or 0.838% of market cap. Insider breakdown | Insiders should keep holding or adding, with net selling staying near zero over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider purchases of this size can come from a single large holder rather than broad management confidence, and the buying has not stopped the downtrend. | ||
Growth is strong at 60% YoY, with latest quarterly revenue of $298.6M versus $187.1M a year earlier, making Coursera an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should stay above $298M and move toward the $368.6M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue jumped 53% in one quarter after being around $195M for several quarters, which suggests a one-time step change rather than organic growth momentum. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average, which is sloping down 6.7% per 30 days, the put/call ratio is 7.00, and implied volatility is 102%. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim its 200-day average and the put/call ratio should ease toward 1. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume signals accumulation and MACD is improving, so the downtrend may be near exhaustion with heavy put positioning acting as a hedge for holders. | ||
Quality scores 3.9, just below the 4.0 floor, with return and margin components at 0.0 offset by a 41% free cash flow margin and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net and operating margin components should move off 0.0 and the quality score should rise above 4.0.
CounterA 41% FCF margin alongside zero reported margins implies cash flow is boosted by non-cash charges or deferred revenue, which may not persist.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 6.2x and a PEG of 0.03, with the $5.08 price 36.1% below the $6.91 analyst target.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap to the $6.91 target over the next 12 months as growth is converted to earnings.
CounterThe 59% drawdown from the 52-week high shows the market doubts the earnings, and a 6.2x forward multiple may reflect expected earnings declines.
Insiders bought $11.4M of stock over the last 90 days against only $0.1M of sales, a net $11.25M or 0.838% of market cap.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insiders should keep holding or adding, with net selling staying near zero over the next 12 months.
CounterInsider purchases of this size can come from a single large holder rather than broad management confidence, and the buying has not stopped the downtrend.
Growth is strong at 60% YoY, with latest quarterly revenue of $298.6M versus $187.1M a year earlier, making Coursera an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay above $298M and move toward the $368.6M next-quarter estimate.
CounterRevenue jumped 53% in one quarter after being around $195M for several quarters, which suggests a one-time step change rather than organic growth momentum.
The stock is below its 200-day average, which is sloping down 6.7% per 30 days, the put/call ratio is 7.00, and implied volatility is 102%.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim its 200-day average and the put/call ratio should ease toward 1.
CounterRising on-balance volume signals accumulation and MACD is improving, so the downtrend may be near exhaustion with heavy put positioning acting as a hedge for holders.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.2 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 41%, FCF yield 29.5%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 60% YoY
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 69%
Insider
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $11,250,245 (0.905% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 1.0 |
| put call | 8.5 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 116%
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.9 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:5.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.11
Upside
+47.1%
Downside
9.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -62% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.5<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 5.11.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.5, and Insider at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Quality at 3.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value With Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $5.60, leaving less than 10% upside from the current $5.08.
- P2Heavy Insider Buying
Trip ifInsider sell value over 90 days exceeds insider buy value, reversing the current $11.4M of buying.
- P3Fast Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $250M from the current $298.6M.
- P4Quality Just Below Floor
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 20% from the current 41%.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend Bearish OptionsTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below the $4.72 stop level, more than 7% under the current $5.08.