Value
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 2.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 45.5x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
- ▸Attractively valued
COMP · Why this verdict
Why Compass (COMP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Revenue expanding at roughly 99% year-over-year and two consecutive outsized earnings beats deliver a compelling growth narrative with 25% upside to the analyst-derived target and a 3.6-to-1 favorable risk/reward—but below-minimum business quality, near-zero returns on equity and assets, and implied volatility above 400% indicate this is a high-risk recovery story that does not yet clear the quality bar for a standard position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue has expanded at roughly 99% year-over-year, placing the company among the top performers in its peer group and signaling that the business is capturing market share at a rate well above the sector average. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 30% year-over-year for at least two of the next four quarters as the market-share gain continues to compound. | →Stable |
| CounterNear-100% revenue growth from a low base often reflects a post-trough cyclical recovery rather than durable structural acceleration; if the underlying market normalizes, growth can decelerate sharply without any fundamental deterioration in the company itself. | ||
The two most recently reported quarters produced EPS surprises of roughly 388% and 114% respectively, indicating that the business has turned a corner from the earlier miss period and is now delivering well ahead of analyst expectations. Earnings | Beat rate sustains at 2 of 2 for the next two quarters with average positive surprises above 50%, confirming the inflection is durable rather than a single-quarter anomaly. | ↑Improving |
| CounterExtreme surprise percentages are most common when the consensus estimate is near zero or negative; as analysts recalibrate to a higher base, the magnitude of outperformance will naturally compress regardless of operational improvement. | ||
Business quality is below the minimum level required for a standard position, reflecting near-zero returns on equity and assets, the absence of a recognized competitive advantage, and a margin structure that has not yet demonstrated the durability needed for sustained profitability. Warnings | Quality improvement would require return on assets to turn positive and hold for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling that the business is beginning to convert scale into sustainable margins. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA real estate services platform in an early growth phase may show structurally low GAAP returns while building the agent network and technology infrastructure that generates future pricing power—the current quality weakness may reflect an investment phase rather than a permanent state. | ||
At roughly 25% below the analyst-derived target of $11.46 with a 3.6-to-1 favorable risk/reward and analyst consensus implying approximately 44% additional upside from current prices, the price-to-value gap is wide and the asymmetry clears the standard bar. Price targets | The price closes more than half the gap to $11.46 within 12 months as the growth narrative attracts institutional buyers and quality indicators begin to improve. | →Stable |
| CounterA price-to-operating-cash-flow multiple above 180 times means the analyst target already prices in a sustained high-growth scenario; if growth decelerates materially, target cuts could narrow or eliminate the apparent upside quickly. | ||
Revenue has expanded at roughly 99% year-over-year, placing the company among the top performers in its peer group and signaling that the business is capturing market share at a rate well above the sector average.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 30% year-over-year for at least two of the next four quarters as the market-share gain continues to compound.
CounterNear-100% revenue growth from a low base often reflects a post-trough cyclical recovery rather than durable structural acceleration; if the underlying market normalizes, growth can decelerate sharply without any fundamental deterioration in the company itself.
The two most recently reported quarters produced EPS surprises of roughly 388% and 114% respectively, indicating that the business has turned a corner from the earlier miss period and is now delivering well ahead of analyst expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat rate sustains at 2 of 2 for the next two quarters with average positive surprises above 50%, confirming the inflection is durable rather than a single-quarter anomaly.
CounterExtreme surprise percentages are most common when the consensus estimate is near zero or negative; as analysts recalibrate to a higher base, the magnitude of outperformance will naturally compress regardless of operational improvement.
Business quality is below the minimum level required for a standard position, reflecting near-zero returns on equity and assets, the absence of a recognized competitive advantage, and a margin structure that has not yet demonstrated the durability needed for sustained profitability.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality improvement would require return on assets to turn positive and hold for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling that the business is beginning to convert scale into sustainable margins.
CounterA real estate services platform in an early growth phase may show structurally low GAAP returns while building the agent network and technology infrastructure that generates future pricing power—the current quality weakness may reflect an investment phase rather than a permanent state.
At roughly 25% below the analyst-derived target of $11.46 with a 3.6-to-1 favorable risk/reward and analyst consensus implying approximately 44% additional upside from current prices, the price-to-value gap is wide and the asymmetry clears the standard bar.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The price closes more than half the gap to $11.46 within 12 months as the growth narrative attracts institutional buyers and quality indicators begin to improve.
CounterA price-to-operating-cash-flow multiple above 180 times means the analyst target already prices in a sustained high-growth scenario; if growth decelerates materially, target cuts could narrow or eliminate the apparent upside quickly.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.5 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 991% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 109% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.39 (n=5)
- ▸Analyst upside: 55%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $274,433 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 3.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.3 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸High IV: 88%
- ▸Above max pain $7
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- NEWS:LEGAL
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.30
Upside
+35.0%
Downside
10.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeSector Rotation — Real Estate sector out of favor, value=7.1
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.32>1.3
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.4<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.30.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Quality at 2.9, Momentum at 3.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hypergrowth Revenue Trajectory
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Outsized Recent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Quality Below Minimum Threshold
Trip ifReturn on assets rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the quality profile has meaningfully improved.
- P4Favorable Risk Reward Analyst Gap
Trip ifConsensus analyst price target falls below $10.50, compressing implied upside below 15% from the current price of $9.14.