Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
- ▸Attractively valued
CNOB · Why this verdict
Why ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CNOB is a regional bank delivering 66% year-over-year revenue growth and ranking as an industry growth leader, with three consecutive earnings beats and a forward P/E of 8.8x against a PEG of 0.19 — the growth story is real and the valuation is not stretched — but the stock has reached its technical resistance target with risk/reward now negative, offering limited room for new entry at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing at 66% year-over-year, placing the company at the top of its peer group among regional banks — a rate of expansion that, if sustained, would significantly re-rate the franchise value. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 30% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, confirming the trajectory has not been a one-time base effect. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 66% year-over-year growth rate in a regional bank can reflect a prior-year trough base rather than organic deposit or loan growth; if the base normalizes, the comparable growth rate may decelerate sharply without any change in the underlying business. | ||
After a miss in the oldest available quarter, the company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the three most recent quarters, with the most recent positive surprise at 8.2%, reflecting consistent execution against market expectations. Earnings | The beat streak extends to five consecutive quarters with average positive surprise above 5%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe wide range of surprise magnitudes across the beat streak — from 4.5% to 14% — suggests guidance discipline may be inconsistent, leaving a future miss possible if macro or credit conditions shift for regional banks. | ||
The stock has reached its technical resistance target — current price and the take-profit level are effectively equal at $32.44 versus $32.46 — leaving essentially no headroom and a negative risk/reward ratio at current levels. Price targets | The analyst consensus price target is revised above $38.00 per share, reopening meaningful upside room and restoring a positive risk/reward setup. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA stock trading at its target in a strong uptrend may simply require the analyst community to raise targets to reflect the improved growth profile; the breakout chart pattern — golden cross, above all moving averages, RSI 69 — suggests the market has already recognized value the current target does not. | ||
A forward P/E of 8.8x and a PEG ratio of 0.19 against 66% revenue growth suggest the market is pricing in very little of the growth runway — a discount that can narrow materially if the growth rate holds for even two or three more quarters. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E multiple expands above 14x from the current 8.8x as analysts revise estimates upward to reflect the sustained growth rate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegional bank multiples are constrained by macro factors — interest rate cycles, credit quality, and capital ratios — that limit how much growth-based re-rating can occur; a below-average multiple may reflect structural constraints on bank earnings rather than a market misperception. | ||
Revenue is growing at 66% year-over-year, placing the company at the top of its peer group among regional banks — a rate of expansion that, if sustained, would significantly re-rate the franchise value.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 30% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, confirming the trajectory has not been a one-time base effect.
CounterA 66% year-over-year growth rate in a regional bank can reflect a prior-year trough base rather than organic deposit or loan growth; if the base normalizes, the comparable growth rate may decelerate sharply without any change in the underlying business.
After a miss in the oldest available quarter, the company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the three most recent quarters, with the most recent positive surprise at 8.2%, reflecting consistent execution against market expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to five consecutive quarters with average positive surprise above 5%.
CounterThe wide range of surprise magnitudes across the beat streak — from 4.5% to 14% — suggests guidance discipline may be inconsistent, leaving a future miss possible if macro or credit conditions shift for regional banks.
The stock has reached its technical resistance target — current price and the take-profit level are effectively equal at $32.44 versus $32.46 — leaving essentially no headroom and a negative risk/reward ratio at current levels.
↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- The analyst consensus price target is revised above $38.00 per share, reopening meaningful upside room and restoring a positive risk/reward setup.
CounterA stock trading at its target in a strong uptrend may simply require the analyst community to raise targets to reflect the improved growth profile; the breakout chart pattern — golden cross, above all moving averages, RSI 69 — suggests the market has already recognized value the current target does not.
A forward P/E of 8.8x and a PEG ratio of 0.19 against 66% revenue growth suggest the market is pricing in very little of the growth runway — a discount that can narrow materially if the growth rate holds for even two or three more quarters.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E multiple expands above 14x from the current 8.8x as analysts revise estimates upward to reflect the sustained growth rate.
CounterRegional bank multiples are constrained by macro factors — interest rate cycles, credit quality, and capital ratios — that limit how much growth-based re-rating can occur; a below-average multiple may reflect structural constraints on bank earnings rather than a market misperception.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 35%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.8 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -16%
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $225,437 (0.014% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 5.1 |
| growth rank | 0.2 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.09
Upside
-1.0%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.0; weakest: Peer rank at 3.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Catalyst at 6.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.9, Growth at 3.9, and Technical at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth decelerates below 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Three Consecutive Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Stock At Target Negative Risk Reward
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is revised above $38.00 per share within 2 consecutive earnings cycles.
- P4Attractive Valuation Relative To Growth
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 14x from the current 8.8x.