Value
9.1/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.1 |
- ▸Attractively valued
CNNE · Why this verdict
Why Cannae Holdings (CNNE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cannae Holdings is a small restaurant-focused holding company with a breakout chart and a 3.7% dividend, but quality is far below the floor, revenue is shrinking, earnings have missed in most recent quarters, and the price is already above the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 1.4, below the 4.0 floor, with return and margin components at 0.0 and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9. Quality breakdown | Margin and return components should move off 0.0 and the Piotroski score should rise above 4 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA current ratio score of 4.7 and conservative debt levels suggest the balance sheet is not stressed, and a holding company's investment gains can swing results sharply upward. | ||
Revenue is declining 7%, and quarterly revenue of $102.2M is down from $110.2M a year earlier and well below $143.6M in September 2023. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should stabilize above $100M and return toward year-over-year growth. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue has stabilized in a $96M to $110M band for the last 5 quarters, so the steep decline may be largely over after earlier portfolio changes. | ||
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a -$1.93 result against a -$0.37 estimate in February 2026, with average surprise of -107%. Last 4 quarters | EPS should stop missing and the loss per share should narrow toward estimates in the report due in 16 days. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe August 2026 quarter swung to a $0.86 profit against a -$0.42 estimate, so the trend may be turning even though earlier quarters were deeply negative. | ||
Price of $16.29 is above the $14.66 analyst target (upside of -10.0%), so there is no analyst-supported upside at the current level. Analyst target | Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or the price should consolidate back toward the target, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOnly 2 analysts cover the stock, so the target is a thin signal, and a breakout with rising on-balance volume can keep running past a stale target. | ||
Momentum scores 6.8 with rising on-balance volume, the price is above its 200-day average, and the stock yields 3.7%. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above its 200-day average with volume accumulation continuing while the dividend stays covered. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith near-zero margins and weak quality, the dividend and the breakout both depend on non-operating gains rather than earnings, and short interest of 10% shows skeptics are active. | ||
Quality scores 1.4, below the 4.0 floor, with return and margin components at 0.0 and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margin and return components should move off 0.0 and the Piotroski score should rise above 4 over the next 12 months.
CounterA current ratio score of 4.7 and conservative debt levels suggest the balance sheet is not stressed, and a holding company's investment gains can swing results sharply upward.
Revenue is declining 7%, and quarterly revenue of $102.2M is down from $110.2M a year earlier and well below $143.6M in September 2023.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stabilize above $100M and return toward year-over-year growth.
CounterQuarterly revenue has stabilized in a $96M to $110M band for the last 5 quarters, so the steep decline may be largely over after earlier portfolio changes.
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a -$1.93 result against a -$0.37 estimate in February 2026, with average surprise of -107%.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should stop missing and the loss per share should narrow toward estimates in the report due in 16 days.
CounterThe August 2026 quarter swung to a $0.86 profit against a -$0.42 estimate, so the trend may be turning even though earlier quarters were deeply negative.
Price of $16.29 is above the $14.66 analyst target (upside of -10.0%), so there is no analyst-supported upside at the current level.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or the price should consolidate back toward the target, over the next 12 months.
CounterOnly 2 analysts cover the stock, so the target is a thin signal, and a breakout with rising on-balance volume can keep running past a stale target.
Momentum scores 6.8 with rising on-balance volume, the price is above its 200-day average, and the stock yields 3.7%.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its 200-day average with volume accumulation continuing while the dividend stays covered.
CounterWith near-zero margins and weak quality, the dividend and the breakout both depend on non-operating gains rather than earnings, and short interest of 10% shows skeptics are active.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -7%
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 4.4 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $10
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.7 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 3.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.38
Upside
-13.0%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.4=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 9.1 and asymmetric R:R of -1.38.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Momentum at 7.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 0.7, Quality at 1.4, and Technical at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 1.4.
- P2Declining Revenue Trend
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $96.2M, the lowest level in the last 5 quarters, from the current $102.2M.
- P3Persistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Already Exceeded
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $17.10, giving more than 5% upside from the current $16.29.
- P5Breakout Momentum With Dividend
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 6.8.