Value
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.3 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
CNMD · Why this verdict
Why CONMED (CNMD) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CNMD has strung together four consecutive earnings beats averaging approximately 5.5% positive surprise, and free cash flow runs at 229% of net income — strong operational quality signals — but a confirmed price downtrend with the 200-day moving average slope declining at -5.5% over 30 days, a put/call ratio of 6.00, and less than 1% headroom to the analyst target make this a high-quality business in an unfavorable technical and positioning setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average positive surprise running near 5.5%, suggesting management has a consistent track record of delivering above market expectations. Earnings | The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters, maintaining an average positive surprise above 3%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith revenue declining 1% year-over-year, the beats may be driven by cost containment rather than durable revenue growth — a harder lever to pull if further expense reduction becomes difficult. | ||
Free cash flow is 229% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score stands at 7 out of 9, reflecting strong operating cash generation that significantly exceeds reported net income — a sign that earnings are backed by real cash. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income ratio remains above 150% for four consecutive quarters, confirming the cash conversion is structural rather than timing-driven. | →Stable |
| CounterA revenue decline of 1% sustained over multiple periods would eventually compress absolute cash generation even if conversion efficiency holds, narrowing the quality cushion. | ||
The stock is below the 200-day moving average with the slope declining at -5.5% over 30 days and on-balance volume falling, confirming a sustained downtrend that blocks near-term entry regardless of fundamental quality. Momentum breakdown | Price closes above the 200-day moving average for 20 consecutive trading days and on-balance volume reverses to rising, signaling the downtrend has ended. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDowntrends in small-cap medical devices can reverse sharply on a single positive catalyst; the unbroken earnings beat streak suggests the business is performing well and the stock could recover quickly if sentiment shifts. | ||
A put/call ratio of 6.00 — a highly elevated level — and implied volatility at 126% indicate that options market participants are aggressively hedging or positioning against the stock, a near-term headwind that amplifies downside risk if negative news emerges. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 2.0 for four consecutive weeks, indicating a meaningful unwinding of bearish options positioning. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn extreme put/call skew can mark a sentiment extreme and historically has, in some instances, preceded short-covering rallies when the feared catalyst fails to materialize. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average positive surprise running near 5.5%, suggesting management has a consistent track record of delivering above market expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters, maintaining an average positive surprise above 3%.
CounterWith revenue declining 1% year-over-year, the beats may be driven by cost containment rather than durable revenue growth — a harder lever to pull if further expense reduction becomes difficult.
Free cash flow is 229% of net income and the Piotroski F-Score stands at 7 out of 9, reflecting strong operating cash generation that significantly exceeds reported net income — a sign that earnings are backed by real cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income ratio remains above 150% for four consecutive quarters, confirming the cash conversion is structural rather than timing-driven.
CounterA revenue decline of 1% sustained over multiple periods would eventually compress absolute cash generation even if conversion efficiency holds, narrowing the quality cushion.
The stock is below the 200-day moving average with the slope declining at -5.5% over 30 days and on-balance volume falling, confirming a sustained downtrend that blocks near-term entry regardless of fundamental quality.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closes above the 200-day moving average for 20 consecutive trading days and on-balance volume reverses to rising, signaling the downtrend has ended.
CounterDowntrends in small-cap medical devices can reverse sharply on a single positive catalyst; the unbroken earnings beat streak suggests the business is performing well and the stock could recover quickly if sentiment shifts.
A put/call ratio of 6.00 — a highly elevated level — and implied volatility at 126% indicate that options market participants are aggressively hedging or positioning against the stock, a near-term headwind that amplifies downside risk if negative news emerges.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 2.0 for four consecutive weeks, indicating a meaningful unwinding of bearish options positioning.
CounterAn extreme put/call skew can mark a sentiment extreme and historically has, in some instances, preceded short-covering rallies when the feared catalyst fails to materialize.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.8 |
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 6.8 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 232% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 5.9 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.9% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.37
Upside
-20.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 7.3 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Insider at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.7, Peer rank at 4.1, and Momentum at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.37 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Unbroken Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Blocks Entry
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average for 20 consecutive trading days.
- P4Elevated Options Skew Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0 for 4 consecutive weeks.