Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
CMPS · Why this verdict
Why COMPASS Pathways Plc - American (CMPS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality sits below the engine's investability floor at 2.4 versus a 4.0 minimum, driven by the absence of a competitive moat and zero profitability margins. Quality breakdown | Quality should rise above the 4.0 floor as the company shows a path toward margins or a durable competitive advantage over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA current ratio of 9.7 signals strong near-term liquidity, suggesting the company is not at near-term solvency risk despite the low quality score. | ||
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout, trading above all major moving averages with RSI at 66 and a bullish MACD, though momentum at 5.4 just clears the engine's 4.5 gate and is flagged as soft against the 5.5 confirmation level. Chart pattern detection | Momentum should climb decisively above 5.5 to move out of the soft/watch zone over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum notes flag falling on-balance volume even as price sits above the 200-day moving average, meaning the breakout may not be backed by strong accumulation. | ||
Valuation reads maximally attractive with a value score of 9.0, and analyst targets imply 47.6% upside, with a take-profit level of $20.10 versus a $13.62 current price. Valuation breakdown | The value score should hold near 9.0 and price should progress toward the $20.10 analyst target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterValue confidence is only 0.33 and the company shows no scored revenue or margin components, so the 'attractive' read leans entirely on analyst targets for what appears to be a pre-commercial company. | ||
Earnings have split evenly between beats and misses over the last four quarters (2 beats, 2 misses), with the average surprise at -14.6% and the next report due in 26 days. Earnings | If the pattern holds, expect further alternation between beats and misses rather than a stable positive trend in upcoming quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent reported quarter was a beat, and the upcoming report due in 26 days will test whether the pattern resolves toward consistency rather than continued alternation. | ||
The engine's edge stems from the stock's small size ($1.8B market cap) sitting below institutional reach, but conviction remains at none and the position-size recommendation is to avoid despite a breakout-boost factor. Edge rationale | As market capitalization grows or a clearer catalyst emerges, conviction should move up from none over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOptions-market max pain sits at $28, roughly double the current price, hinting the options market may be pricing in meaningfully more optimism than the engine's own avoid-level conviction. | ||
Quality sits below the engine's investability floor at 2.4 versus a 4.0 minimum, driven by the absence of a competitive moat and zero profitability margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality should rise above the 4.0 floor as the company shows a path toward margins or a durable competitive advantage over the next 12 months.
CounterA current ratio of 9.7 signals strong near-term liquidity, suggesting the company is not at near-term solvency risk despite the low quality score.
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout, trading above all major moving averages with RSI at 66 and a bullish MACD, though momentum at 5.4 just clears the engine's 4.5 gate and is flagged as soft against the 5.5 confirmation level.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Momentum should climb decisively above 5.5 to move out of the soft/watch zone over the next 12 months.
CounterThe momentum notes flag falling on-balance volume even as price sits above the 200-day moving average, meaning the breakout may not be backed by strong accumulation.
Valuation reads maximally attractive with a value score of 9.0, and analyst targets imply 47.6% upside, with a take-profit level of $20.10 versus a $13.62 current price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should hold near 9.0 and price should progress toward the $20.10 analyst target over the next 12 months.
CounterValue confidence is only 0.33 and the company shows no scored revenue or margin components, so the 'attractive' read leans entirely on analyst targets for what appears to be a pre-commercial company.
Earnings have split evenly between beats and misses over the last four quarters (2 beats, 2 misses), with the average surprise at -14.6% and the next report due in 26 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- If the pattern holds, expect further alternation between beats and misses rather than a stable positive trend in upcoming quarters.
CounterThe most recent reported quarter was a beat, and the upcoming report due in 26 days will test whether the pattern resolves toward consistency rather than continued alternation.
The engine's edge stems from the stock's small size ($1.8B market cap) sitting below institutional reach, but conviction remains at none and the position-size recommendation is to avoid despite a breakout-boost factor.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- As market capitalization grows or a clearer catalyst emerges, conviction should move up from none over the next 12 months.
CounterOptions-market max pain sits at $28, roughly double the current price, hinting the options market may be pricing in meaningfully more optimism than the engine's own avoid-level conviction.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
COMPASS Pathways is in a technical breakout with an attractively priced setup and large modeled upside to its analyst target, but sub-floor business quality, a mixed earnings track record, and a purely speculative small-cap classification keep conviction and position sizing at essentially zero.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 9.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.6 |
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.52 (n=5)
- ▸Analyst upside: 60%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 1.7 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 105%
- ▸Above max pain $1
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (9)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(3)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.93
Upside
+43.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.49>1.3, MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 8.6, and Momentum at 7.2; the weakest are Quality at 2.4, Catalyst at 4.3, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.93 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Golden Cross Breakout With Soft Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5, breaching the recovery gate and reversing the current breakout.
- P2Attractive Valuation Vs Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst-target upside compresses below 15% from the current 47.6%.
- P3Quality Below Investability Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.4.
- P4Mixed Earnings Track Record
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise rises above 10% for 3 consecutive quarters, ending the current alternating beat/miss pattern.
- P5Small Cap Edge With Speculative Sizing
Trip ifMarket capitalization exceeds $3 billion, moving the stock into institutional reach and invalidating the small-cap edge rationale.