Value
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 43.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.39
- ▸Attractively valued
CLNE · Why this verdict
Why Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Clean Energy Fuels appears attractively valued on forward metrics, trading at a 41.8x forward P/E against a 0.38 PEG ratio that the engine reads as signaling undervaluation. Valuation breakdown | The value score, currently 8.2 out of 10, should hold above 7 as forward P/E and PEG continue to signal the stock is undervalued relative to expected earnings growth. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 'attractively valued' read leans on forward estimates for a company with zero net margin and ongoing cash burn, so the low PEG could reflect overly optimistic earnings growth assumptions rather than a genuine bargain. | ||
The stock is emerging from a death-cross pattern, with MACD improving and RSI at 62, and momentum has climbed to 5.2, clearing the engine's 4.5 recovery-gate threshold. Chart pattern detection | Momentum score should continue rising past 5.5 over the next 12 months, moving fully out of the soft/watch zone flagged in the recovery setup. | →Stable |
| CounterThe position is still confirmed in a downtrend below its 200-day moving average with a -2.8% per 30-day slope, so the death-cross recovery could stall or reverse. | ||
Business quality sits well below the engine's investability floor, with a quality score of 2.4 against a 4.0 minimum, driven by cash-burning operations and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | For the thesis to de-risk, the quality score needs to climb back above the 4.0 floor as free cash flow turns less negative and margins recover. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-score component reads a comparatively strong 6.7 and the current ratio of 8.4 signals ample liquidity, suggesting the quality read may be overly punitive on margin metrics alone. | ||
The engine flags value-trap signals on 2 of 5 criteria, citing high leverage (debt-to-equity of 1.8) and negative free cash flow as risks that could undercut the cheap valuation. Bear case | These value-trap signals should fade as debt-to-equity declines and free cash flow generation turns positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe targets imply only 6.8% downside against 105% upside to the analyst target, suggesting the risk/reward may already compensate for the leverage concern. | ||
The insider signal reads neutral despite $269,104 of net insider selling over 90 days (0.06% of market cap), with 2 buy transactions partly offsetting 1 sell and no C-level sales. Insider | The insider signal should remain neutral to positive, with no C-level selling and no material increase in net sell value, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA shift toward C-level selling or a jump in net sell value could indicate insiders are more cautious than the currently neutral signal suggests. | ||
Clean Energy Fuels appears attractively valued on forward metrics, trading at a 41.8x forward P/E against a 0.38 PEG ratio that the engine reads as signaling undervaluation.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score, currently 8.2 out of 10, should hold above 7 as forward P/E and PEG continue to signal the stock is undervalued relative to expected earnings growth.
CounterThe 'attractively valued' read leans on forward estimates for a company with zero net margin and ongoing cash burn, so the low PEG could reflect overly optimistic earnings growth assumptions rather than a genuine bargain.
The stock is emerging from a death-cross pattern, with MACD improving and RSI at 62, and momentum has climbed to 5.2, clearing the engine's 4.5 recovery-gate threshold.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Momentum score should continue rising past 5.5 over the next 12 months, moving fully out of the soft/watch zone flagged in the recovery setup.
CounterThe position is still confirmed in a downtrend below its 200-day moving average with a -2.8% per 30-day slope, so the death-cross recovery could stall or reverse.
Business quality sits well below the engine's investability floor, with a quality score of 2.4 against a 4.0 minimum, driven by cash-burning operations and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- For the thesis to de-risk, the quality score needs to climb back above the 4.0 floor as free cash flow turns less negative and margins recover.
CounterThe Piotroski F-score component reads a comparatively strong 6.7 and the current ratio of 8.4 signals ample liquidity, suggesting the quality read may be overly punitive on margin metrics alone.
The engine flags value-trap signals on 2 of 5 criteria, citing high leverage (debt-to-equity of 1.8) and negative free cash flow as risks that could undercut the cheap valuation.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- These value-trap signals should fade as debt-to-equity declines and free cash flow generation turns positive over the next 12 months.
CounterThe targets imply only 6.8% downside against 105% upside to the analyst target, suggesting the risk/reward may already compensate for the leverage concern.
The insider signal reads neutral despite $269,104 of net insider selling over 90 days (0.06% of market cap), with 2 buy transactions partly offsetting 1 sell and no C-level sales.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should remain neutral to positive, with no C-level selling and no material increase in net sell value, over the next 12 months.
CounterA shift toward C-level selling or a jump in net sell value could indicate insiders are more cautious than the currently neutral signal suggests.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Clean Energy Fuels screens as statistically cheap and shows early signs of a technical recovery, but weak business quality, cash burn, and elevated leverage keep the recommended position size at essentially zero despite a large nominal upside gap to the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -4% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.7 |
| MACD | 7.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 9.5 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 116%
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 6.0 |
| holder change | 9.8 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $269,104 (0.057% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 4.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| beta | 3.9 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
5.87
Upside
+88.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.82>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.2 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Growth at 7.9, and Sentiment at 7.7; the weakest are Technical at 1.5, Quality at 2.4, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.87 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Value Re Rating On Forward Earnings
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 2.0 as forward earnings estimates get cut, invalidating the 'attractively valued' read.
- P2Technical Recovery From Death Cross
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5, breaching the recovery gate and reversing the recovery narrative.
- P3Quality Deficit Below Investment Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.4, clearing the engine's investability floor.
- P4Leverage Driven Value Trap Risk
Trip ifFree cash flow margin rises above 0% of revenue and debt-to-equity falls below 1.0x, removing both value-trap signals.
- P5Neutral Insider Signal Despite Selling
Trip ifC-level insider sells exceed $100,000 in a single quarter, or net insider selling value exceeds $500,000 over 90 days.