Value
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
CLMT · Why this verdict
Why Calumet (CLMT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Calumet is a fast-growing specialty chemicals and refining name with a perfect 4-quarter beat streak, but quality is below the minimum bar with zero margins, momentum is weak, and the price of $49.31 is already above the $48.55 analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Price of $49.31 is slightly above the $48.55 analyst target (upside of -1.5%) while the downside to the stop is 9.9%, so there is no analyst-supported upside. Analyst target | Analyst targets should be raised above the current price as estimates catch up with the earnings turn. | ↑Improving |
| CounterOnly 5 analysts cover the stock, so the signal is dampened, and targets typically lag a 41% revenue jump and a swing to profit. | ||
Quality scores 1.9, below the 4.0 floor, with gross margin, operating margin and net margin components all at 0.0, so profitability is not established. Quality | Margin components should move off 0.0 and the quality score should rise toward the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMoat (5.5) and current ratio (3.4) are middling, and a 41% revenue jump with a swing to positive EPS suggests margins may be inflecting upward from a trough. | ||
Revenue growth is 41% YoY, with the latest quarter at $1.445B versus $1.027B a year earlier, making Calumet an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should stay above the $1.34B next-quarter estimate, showing the step-up is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue was flat near $1.0B for several quarters before the jump, so the latest quarter may reflect commodity pricing that reverses rather than lasting demand. | ||
EPS beat estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, and the August 2026 quarter swung to a $0.68 profit against a $0.16 estimate. Last 4 quarters | EPS should stay positive and keep beating estimates in the report due in 13 days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe prior four quarters before this streak contained 4 misses, and EPS history is volatile, so the streak may reflect low bars rather than consistent execution. | ||
Momentum scores 3.1 with falling on-balance volume and a MACD component of 0, though the stock remains above its 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 as on-balance volume turns to accumulation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI near 30 reads as an uptrend pullback and a possible buying opportunity, and the price is still above its 200-day average. | ||
Price of $49.31 is slightly above the $48.55 analyst target (upside of -1.5%) while the downside to the stop is 9.9%, so there is no analyst-supported upside.
↑ImprovingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised above the current price as estimates catch up with the earnings turn.
CounterOnly 5 analysts cover the stock, so the signal is dampened, and targets typically lag a 41% revenue jump and a swing to profit.
Quality scores 1.9, below the 4.0 floor, with gross margin, operating margin and net margin components all at 0.0, so profitability is not established.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Margin components should move off 0.0 and the quality score should rise toward the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months.
CounterMoat (5.5) and current ratio (3.4) are middling, and a 41% revenue jump with a swing to positive EPS suggests margins may be inflecting upward from a trough.
Revenue growth is 41% YoY, with the latest quarter at $1.445B versus $1.027B a year earlier, making Calumet an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay above the $1.34B next-quarter estimate, showing the step-up is durable.
CounterRevenue was flat near $1.0B for several quarters before the jump, so the latest quarter may reflect commodity pricing that reverses rather than lasting demand.
EPS beat estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, and the August 2026 quarter swung to a $0.68 profit against a $0.16 estimate.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should stay positive and keep beating estimates in the report due in 13 days.
CounterThe prior four quarters before this streak contained 4 misses, and EPS history is volatile, so the streak may reflect low bars rather than consistent execution.
Momentum scores 3.1 with falling on-balance volume and a MACD component of 0, though the stock remains above its 200-day average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 as on-balance volume turns to accumulation.
CounterRSI near 30 reads as an uptrend pullback and a possible buying opportunity, and the price is still above its 200-day average.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.4 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 41% YoY
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.4 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 4.2 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,225,049 (0.028% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
- ▸High IV: 88%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.24
Upside
-2.7%
Downside
11.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.2
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.7<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.24.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.2, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 1.9, Momentum at 2.7, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 1.9.
- P2Fast Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $1.03B, the year-ago level, from the current $1.445B.
- P3Perfect Beat Streak Turning Profitable
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Already Exceeded
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $52, giving more than 5% upside from the current $49.31.
- P5Weak Momentum Falling Volume
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.1.