Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.47
- ▸Attractively valued
CLB · Why this verdict
Why Core Laboratories (CLB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Core Laboratories is a cheap, cash-generative oilfield-services name with rising earnings estimates and a 28.7% gap to the analyst target, held back by declining revenue, no competitive moat, 25% short interest and a confirmed downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 14.4x and a PEG of 0.44, with the $9.91 price 28.7% below the $12.75 analyst target. Valuation breakdown | Price should close part of the gap to the $12.75 target as earnings estimates keep rising over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target is a thin signal, and the cheap multiple may reflect declining revenue and no moat rather than mispricing. | ||
Earnings estimates are up 54.8% over 30 days and the company has beaten EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Catalyst breakdown | EPS should keep beating estimates, including the report due in 4 days, with surprises staying positive. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe April 2026 quarter missed by 45%, and the large estimate jump comes off a low base, so one more miss could reverse the revision trend. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 148% FCF to net income with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, but the business has no competitive moat and margins are thin. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should continue to exceed net income, funding the dividend and keeping the balance sheet solid. | →Stable |
| CounterWith no moat, gross margin scored 0.0 and operating margin 2.9, cash flow is exposed to oilfield activity swings, and a 148% ratio can reflect working-capital release that does not repeat. | ||
Revenue is declining 4% and the latest quarter of $124.6M is below the $130.2M of a year earlier, ranking the company low among peers on growth. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should return toward the $132.1M next-quarter estimate and show year-over-year growth. | →Stable |
| CounterA multi-year revenue range of $121M to $138M per quarter shows no growth trend, so recovery may not come if energy services demand stays soft. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average with that average sloping down 6.0% per 30 days, short interest is 25%, and implied volatility is 78%. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim its 200-day average and short interest should decline if the recovery thesis holds. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRising on-balance volume signals accumulation, and heavy short interest can fuel a squeeze, but sustained shorting by 25% of float also signals informed skepticism. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 14.4x and a PEG of 0.44, with the $9.91 price 28.7% below the $12.75 analyst target.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap to the $12.75 target as earnings estimates keep rising over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target is a thin signal, and the cheap multiple may reflect declining revenue and no moat rather than mispricing.
Earnings estimates are up 54.8% over 30 days and the company has beaten EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS should keep beating estimates, including the report due in 4 days, with surprises staying positive.
CounterThe April 2026 quarter missed by 45%, and the large estimate jump comes off a low base, so one more miss could reverse the revision trend.
Cash conversion is excellent at 148% FCF to net income with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, but the business has no competitive moat and margins are thin.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should continue to exceed net income, funding the dividend and keeping the balance sheet solid.
CounterWith no moat, gross margin scored 0.0 and operating margin 2.9, cash flow is exposed to oilfield activity swings, and a 148% ratio can reflect working-capital release that does not repeat.
Revenue is declining 4% and the latest quarter of $124.6M is below the $130.2M of a year earlier, ranking the company low among peers on growth.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should return toward the $132.1M next-quarter estimate and show year-over-year growth.
CounterA multi-year revenue range of $121M to $138M per quarter shows no growth trend, so recovery may not come if energy services demand stays soft.
The stock is below its 200-day average with that average sloping down 6.0% per 30 days, short interest is 25%, and implied volatility is 78%.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim its 200-day average and short interest should decline if the recovery thesis holds.
CounterRising on-balance volume signals accumulation, and heavy short interest can fuel a squeeze, but sustained shorting by 25% of float also signals informed skepticism.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.9 |
| Net margin | 2.3 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 9.9 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 148% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.4 |
| EPS growth | 8.5 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.35 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 43%
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 3.7 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $53,900 (0.011% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 1.5 |
Technical
0.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 0.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.9 |
| days to cover | 3.2 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.9 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 26%
- ▸High IV: 69%
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 9.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| surprise avg | 1.2 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Estimates up 54.8% (30d)
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.4% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.6>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.66
Upside
+21.5%
Downside
13.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -48% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Technical at 0.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Momentum at 6.6, and Catalyst at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 0.9, Insider at 4.1, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Vs Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $10.90, leaving less than 10% upside from the current $9.91.
- P2Rising Estimates Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Excellent Cash Conversion No Moat
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 80% of net income from the current 148%.
- P4Declining Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $121.8M, the lowest level in the last 4 quarters, from the current $124.6M.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 30% of float from the current 25%.