Value
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.34
- ▸Attractively valued
CFFN · Why this verdict
Why Capitol Federal Financial (CFFN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Capitol Federal trades at an attractive valuation, with a forward P/E of 11.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.34 relative to its growth profile. Bull case | The valuation discount should narrow as the market re-rates the stock closer to peer multiples. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is already 2.8% from its 52-week high and has reached its analyst price target, suggesting the value has already been substantially recognized. | ||
The stock has formed a golden cross and trades above all major moving averages with an RSI of 62 and bullish MACD, a constructive technical setup. Chart pattern detection | Price should hold above its moving averages and continue the breakout structure over coming months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe asymmetry ratio sits at -1.94, meaning the technical strength has already priced in most of the near-term upside. | ||
The dividend carries a yield trap warning, indicating the high yield may not be sustainable given underlying earnings quality. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety score should improve above the current 4.8 level as coverage strengthens. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company has beaten earnings in both of the last two reported quarters, which could support continued dividend coverage. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, leaving -17% upside remaining under the engine's post-target reassessment, capping further gains from current levels. Warnings | Upside percentage should turn positive again only if the analyst target is revised meaningfully higher. | →Stable |
| CounterA golden cross breakout can continue running past static analyst targets if momentum persists. | ||
Capitol Federal maintains strong margins of 36%, supporting a durable earnings base for the bank. Quality breakdown | Margins should hold near or above the current 36% level over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quality score notes no competitive moat, leaving margins vulnerable to competitive pressure in regional banking. | ||
Capitol Federal trades at an attractive valuation, with a forward P/E of 11.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.34 relative to its growth profile.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The valuation discount should narrow as the market re-rates the stock closer to peer multiples.
CounterThe stock is already 2.8% from its 52-week high and has reached its analyst price target, suggesting the value has already been substantially recognized.
The stock has formed a golden cross and trades above all major moving averages with an RSI of 62 and bullish MACD, a constructive technical setup.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its moving averages and continue the breakout structure over coming months.
CounterThe asymmetry ratio sits at -1.94, meaning the technical strength has already priced in most of the near-term upside.
The dividend carries a yield trap warning, indicating the high yield may not be sustainable given underlying earnings quality.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety score should improve above the current 4.8 level as coverage strengthens.
CounterThe company has beaten earnings in both of the last two reported quarters, which could support continued dividend coverage.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, leaving -17% upside remaining under the engine's post-target reassessment, capping further gains from current levels.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Upside percentage should turn positive again only if the analyst target is revised meaningfully higher.
CounterA golden cross breakout can continue running past static analyst targets if momentum persists.
Capitol Federal maintains strong margins of 36%, supporting a durable earnings base for the bank.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should hold near or above the current 36% level over the next several quarters.
CounterThe quality score notes no competitive moat, leaving margins vulnerable to competitive pressure in regional banking.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Capitol Federal offers an attractive valuation and a golden-cross breakout, but the stock has already reached its analyst target and carries a yield-safety concern that tempers further upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 8.9 |
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 4.9 |
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 1.4 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.0 |
- ▸High IV: 105%
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.3 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 4.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:21d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.92
Upside
-14.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.7; weakest: Momentum at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Insider at 7.5, and Growth at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 3.7, Peer rank at 4.4, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x without a corresponding increase in earnings growth.
- P2Golden Cross Breakout
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average, reversing the golden cross breakout.
- P3Dividend Yield Safety
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 3.0 or the dividend is cut.
- P4Limited Remaining Upside
Trip ifUpside percentage stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters without an analyst target increase.
- P5Strong Margin Profile
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 30% from the current 36% level.