Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.7 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 7.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.00
CDRO · Why this verdict
Why Codere Online Luxembourg (CDRO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Codere Online is a wide-moat online gambling company with 34% ROE, 206% cash conversion and 19.8% upside to the analyst target, but sector headwinds and a weak momentum score of 4.5/10 limit conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company earns an excellent 34% ROE with free cash flow at 206% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 25% and free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margin scores only 2.2/10, so the thin profit base can inflate both ROE and the cash conversion ratio. | ||
The business has a wide economic moat and a strong growth profile, with earnings growth scoring 10/10. Bull case | Revenue growth stays above 10% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOnline gambling is regulated market by market, and licensing or tax changes can erase growth quickly. | ||
At $8.99 the stock sits 19.8% below the $10.77 analyst target, with a forward P/E of 14.6x and PEG of 1.00. Upside pct | Price moves toward the $10.77 target over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is thin and the consumer cyclical sector carries a -1.5 modifier, so targets may prove optimistic. | ||
Momentum is 4.5/10, a pullback in an uptrend with price above the 200-day average, RSI at 36 and a 4.0x volume surge on selling. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average and falling on-balance volume reverses. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 4.0x volume surge on a selloff alongside falling on-balance volume may signal institutional distribution. | ||
The company earns an excellent 34% ROE with free cash flow at 206% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 25% and free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over 12 months.
CounterNet margin scores only 2.2/10, so the thin profit base can inflate both ROE and the cash conversion ratio.
The business has a wide economic moat and a strong growth profile, with earnings growth scoring 10/10.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 10% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterOnline gambling is regulated market by market, and licensing or tax changes can erase growth quickly.
At $8.99 the stock sits 19.8% below the $10.77 analyst target, with a forward P/E of 14.6x and PEG of 1.00.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $10.77 target over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is thin and the consumer cyclical sector carries a -1.5 modifier, so targets may prove optimistic.
Momentum is 4.5/10, a pullback in an uptrend with price above the 200-day average, RSI at 36 and a 4.0x volume surge on selling.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and falling on-balance volume reverses.
CounterA 4.0x volume surge on a selloff alongside falling on-balance volume may signal institutional distribution.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 2.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 34%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 206% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
8.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $4,647 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.5 |
| support resistance | 8.8 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.9 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.20
Upside
+19.1%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.20 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.6, Technical at 8.6, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 4.5, Catalyst at 5.9, and Peer rank at 6.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Excellent Returns Cash Conversion
Trip ifROE falls below 15% from the current 34%.
- P2Wide Moat Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 8% YoY from the current growth score of 7.1/10 levels.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 8% from the current 19.8%.
- P4Uptrend Pullback Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the $8.36 stop level from the current $8.99.