Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
CCNE · Why this verdict
Why CNB Financial (CCNE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last quarters, with an average surprise of 10.7%, a perfect beat streak the engine flags as an upcoming catalyst with earnings due in 18 days. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should extend to 5 of 5 quarters at the next report, keeping average surprise positive. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates are already trending down ahead of this print, which can make a beat easier to achieve against a lowered bar rather than reflecting improving fundamentals. | ||
Revenue growth is running at 49% year-over-year, pushing the engine's growth score to a maximum 10.0. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 25% YoY over the next 4 reported quarters to sustain this pillar. | →Stable |
| CounterA 49% growth rate for a regional bank likely reflects an acquisition-driven jump rather than organic expansion, which typically decelerates sharply once the acquired book is fully absorbed into year-over-year comparisons. | ||
Earnings estimates are trending down even as the stock sits within 3.5% of its 52-week high and past its analyst target, a combination that pushed the risk/reward asymmetry ratio negative at -1.18. Bear case | Earnings estimates should stabilize or turn back up over the next 2 quarters if the negative estimate revision trend is temporary. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimate revisions can lag actual improving fundamentals for a bank whose recent growth reflects an acquisition not yet fully modeled by analysts, so the downward trend may reverse quickly once models catch up. | ||
The stock trades at an 8.8x forward P/E with an extremely low 0.11 PEG ratio, an attractively valued setup relative to its earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | PEG should stay below 0.5 and forward P/E below 10x over the next 12 months to sustain the valuation case. | →Stable |
| CounterAn unusually low PEG driven by a temporary acquisition-fueled earnings spike can mean-revert quickly once growth normalizes, making the current multiple look cheap only in hindsight. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last quarters, with an average surprise of 10.7%, a perfect beat streak the engine flags as an upcoming catalyst with earnings due in 18 days.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to 5 of 5 quarters at the next report, keeping average surprise positive.
CounterEstimates are already trending down ahead of this print, which can make a beat easier to achieve against a lowered bar rather than reflecting improving fundamentals.
Revenue growth is running at 49% year-over-year, pushing the engine's growth score to a maximum 10.0.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 25% YoY over the next 4 reported quarters to sustain this pillar.
CounterA 49% growth rate for a regional bank likely reflects an acquisition-driven jump rather than organic expansion, which typically decelerates sharply once the acquired book is fully absorbed into year-over-year comparisons.
Earnings estimates are trending down even as the stock sits within 3.5% of its 52-week high and past its analyst target, a combination that pushed the risk/reward asymmetry ratio negative at -1.18.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Earnings estimates should stabilize or turn back up over the next 2 quarters if the negative estimate revision trend is temporary.
CounterEstimate revisions can lag actual improving fundamentals for a bank whose recent growth reflects an acquisition not yet fully modeled by analysts, so the downward trend may reverse quickly once models catch up.
The stock trades at an 8.8x forward P/E with an extremely low 0.11 PEG ratio, an attractively valued setup relative to its earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG should stay below 0.5 and forward P/E below 10x over the next 12 months to sustain the valuation case.
CounterAn unusually low PEG driven by a temporary acquisition-fueled earnings spike can mean-revert quickly once growth normalizes, making the current multiple look cheap only in hindsight.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CNB Financial enters its next earnings report with a perfect beat streak, strong growth, and a cheap valuation, but declining analyst estimates and a negative risk/reward asymmetry near 52-week highs temper the setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 49% YoY
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $16,689 (0.002% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 5.5 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| beta | 9.2 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.95
Upside
-11.1%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.8, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.7, Quality at 5.2, and Sentiment at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.95 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below 0% at the next reported quarter.
- P2Hyper Growth Revenue Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Declining Estimates Near Highs
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio stays below -1.0 through the next reported earnings date.
- P4Cheap Valuation Strong Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x or PEG exceeds 1.0.