Value
10.0/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
CCD · Why this verdict
Why Calamos Dynamic Convertible & I (CCD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Calamos Dynamic Convertible & Income screens cheap versus peers and shows a technical breakout, but a weak Piotroski F-Score and a yield-trap warning on its distribution keep quality below the engine's floor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The fund screens with an attractive P/E relative to peers, contributing to a peer-rank value component of roughly 9 out of 10. Peer-rank breakdown | The relative P/E ranking should stay in the top half of peers over the next 2 quarters to sustain this pillar. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap relative P/E for a closed-end fund with weak underlying quality metrics may simply reflect a justified discount rather than an overlooked value opportunity. | ||
The engine flags broad quality concerns, with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 0 out of 9 and no competitive moat, pulling the quality score down to just 0.9, far below the 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should climb to at least 4 out of 9 over the next few quarters if the underlying fund's fundamentals are improving. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is designed for operating companies and may not translate cleanly to a closed-end convertible/income fund, whose fundamentals are really its portfolio holdings and distribution coverage. | ||
The engine issues a yield-trap warning, flagging the fund's distribution yield as high but potentially unsafe relative to its earnings coverage. Catalyst breakdown | The distribution should be maintained without a cut, and the yield-trap warning should clear over the next 4 quarters if coverage is adequate. | →Stable |
| CounterClosed-end funds often maintain high managed distribution rates funded partly by return of capital by design, which can look like a yield trap without indicating actual distress. | ||
The fund is in a technical breakout, holding above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, pushing the momentum score to 6.4. Momentum breakdown | The fund should hold above its 200-day moving average and momentum score should stay above 5.5 over the next 2 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFor a closed-end fund, price momentum is often driven by discount/premium-to-NAV mean reversion rather than genuine change in underlying value, so a breakout can reverse quickly if the discount normalizes. | ||
The fund screens with an attractive P/E relative to peers, contributing to a peer-rank value component of roughly 9 out of 10.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The relative P/E ranking should stay in the top half of peers over the next 2 quarters to sustain this pillar.
CounterA cheap relative P/E for a closed-end fund with weak underlying quality metrics may simply reflect a justified discount rather than an overlooked value opportunity.
The engine flags broad quality concerns, with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 0 out of 9 and no competitive moat, pulling the quality score down to just 0.9, far below the 4.0 floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should climb to at least 4 out of 9 over the next few quarters if the underlying fund's fundamentals are improving.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is designed for operating companies and may not translate cleanly to a closed-end convertible/income fund, whose fundamentals are really its portfolio holdings and distribution coverage.
The engine issues a yield-trap warning, flagging the fund's distribution yield as high but potentially unsafe relative to its earnings coverage.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The distribution should be maintained without a cut, and the yield-trap warning should clear over the next 4 quarters if coverage is adequate.
CounterClosed-end funds often maintain high managed distribution rates funded partly by return of capital by design, which can look like a yield trap without indicating actual distress.
The fund is in a technical breakout, holding above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, pushing the momentum score to 6.4.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The fund should hold above its 200-day moving average and momentum score should stay above 5.5 over the next 2 quarters.
CounterFor a closed-end fund, price momentum is often driven by discount/premium-to-NAV mean reversion rather than genuine change in underlying value, so a breakout can reverse quickly if the discount normalizes.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
0.9/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 0.0 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 4.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $22,000,000 (3.467% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.6 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.0 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.8/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 10.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
6.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.4<4.5 outcome against Value at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 10.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.8, and Technical at 7.4; the weakest are Quality at 0.9, Momentum at 4.4, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extremely Weak Piotroski Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises to 4 or higher out of 9.
- P2Yield Trap Distribution Risk
Trip ifThe fund cuts its distribution by more than 10%.
- P3Technical Breakout Above Moving Average
Trip ifPrice stays below the 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive months.
- P4Attractive Relative Valuation
Trip ifThe fund's value peer-rank falls below the 50th percentile (5.0).