Value
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
CCAP · Why this verdict
Why Crescent Capital BDC (CCAP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Crescent Capital BDC screens cheap with notable insider buying support, but declining revenue, downward-trending estimates, and a confirmed technical downtrend argue for a cautious, reduced position despite the early signs of recovery.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a 7.5x forward P/E with an extremely low 0.03 PEG ratio, an attractively valued setup versus its earnings growth trajectory. Valuation breakdown | PEG should stay below 0.5 and forward P/E below 9x over the next 12 months to sustain this valuation case. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA near-zero PEG on a business with declining revenue can reflect the market correctly pricing in deteriorating growth rather than an overlooked bargain, especially for a leveraged BDC. | ||
Insiders bought $1,077,080 across 4 transactions in the past 90 days with zero sells, a notable buying signal that the engine reads as bullish. Insider | Insider buying should continue or hold flat, with no net selling, over the next 2 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInsider purchases in a BDC can be driven by dividend reinvestment programs or compensation structuring rather than a genuine signal about the underlying loan portfolio's health. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with a -2.9% monthly MA slope, a pattern the engine confirms as a downtrend even though rising on-balance volume shows some accumulation. Momentum breakdown | The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average and the MA slope should turn positive over the next 2 quarters if the recovery setup plays out. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume during a technical downtrend often precedes a trend reversal, so the downtrend label may already be stale. | ||
Revenue is declining at -10% year-over-year and earnings estimates are trending down, both flagged as bear-case factors weighing on the growth outlook. Bear case | Revenue growth should turn positive and earnings estimates should stabilize over the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFor an externally-managed BDC, a temporary revenue decline can reflect portfolio repositioning (rotating out of underperforming loans) rather than a structural deterioration in earnings power. | ||
The stock trades at a 7.5x forward P/E with an extremely low 0.03 PEG ratio, an attractively valued setup versus its earnings growth trajectory.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG should stay below 0.5 and forward P/E below 9x over the next 12 months to sustain this valuation case.
CounterA near-zero PEG on a business with declining revenue can reflect the market correctly pricing in deteriorating growth rather than an overlooked bargain, especially for a leveraged BDC.
Insiders bought $1,077,080 across 4 transactions in the past 90 days with zero sells, a notable buying signal that the engine reads as bullish.
↓DeterioratingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying should continue or hold flat, with no net selling, over the next 2 quarters.
CounterInsider purchases in a BDC can be driven by dividend reinvestment programs or compensation structuring rather than a genuine signal about the underlying loan portfolio's health.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with a -2.9% monthly MA slope, a pattern the engine confirms as a downtrend even though rising on-balance volume shows some accumulation.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average and the MA slope should turn positive over the next 2 quarters if the recovery setup plays out.
CounterRising on-balance volume during a technical downtrend often precedes a trend reversal, so the downtrend label may already be stale.
Revenue is declining at -10% year-over-year and earnings estimates are trending down, both flagged as bear-case factors weighing on the growth outlook.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive and earnings estimates should stabilize over the next 2 quarters.
CounterFor an externally-managed BDC, a temporary revenue decline can reflect portfolio repositioning (rotating out of underperforming loans) rather than a structural deterioration in earnings power.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 32%, FCF yield 12.5%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 16 (fail)
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -16%
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 3.6 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.4 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 5.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 5.3 |
| beta | 9.5 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $399M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.28
Upside
+1.8%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.2<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.4 and asymmetric R:R of 0.28.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Insider at 7.3, and Technical at 7.2; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Momentum at 2.2, and Peer rank at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 11x or PEG exceeds 1.0.
- P2Notable Insider Buying Conviction
Trip ifNet insider transactions turn to more than $500,000 in net selling over the next 90 days.
- P3Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice stays below the 200-day moving average for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P4Declining Revenue And Estimates
Trip ifRevenue growth stays below -5% YoY for 2 more consecutive quarters.