Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.7 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
CCAP · Why this verdict
Why Crescent Capital BDC (CCAP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a 7.5x forward P/E with an extremely low 0.03 PEG ratio, an attractively valued setup versus its earnings growth trajectory. Valuation breakdown | PEG should stay below 0.5 and forward P/E below 9x over the next 12 months to sustain this valuation case. | →Stable |
| CounterA near-zero PEG on a business with declining revenue can reflect the market correctly pricing in deteriorating growth rather than an overlooked bargain, especially for a leveraged BDC. | ||
Insiders bought $1,077,080 across 4 transactions in the past 90 days with zero sells, a notable buying signal that the engine reads as bullish. Insider | Insider buying should continue or hold flat, with no net selling, over the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider purchases in a BDC can be driven by dividend reinvestment programs or compensation structuring rather than a genuine signal about the underlying loan portfolio's health. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with a -2.9% monthly MA slope, a pattern the engine confirms as a downtrend even though rising on-balance volume shows some accumulation. Momentum breakdown | The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average and the MA slope should turn positive over the next 2 quarters if the recovery setup plays out. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume during a technical downtrend often precedes a trend reversal, so the downtrend label may already be stale. | ||
Revenue is declining at -10% year-over-year and earnings estimates are trending down, both flagged as bear-case factors weighing on the growth outlook. Bear case | Revenue growth should turn positive and earnings estimates should stabilize over the next 2 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFor an externally-managed BDC, a temporary revenue decline can reflect portfolio repositioning (rotating out of underperforming loans) rather than a structural deterioration in earnings power. | ||
The stock trades at a 7.5x forward P/E with an extremely low 0.03 PEG ratio, an attractively valued setup versus its earnings growth trajectory.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG should stay below 0.5 and forward P/E below 9x over the next 12 months to sustain this valuation case.
CounterA near-zero PEG on a business with declining revenue can reflect the market correctly pricing in deteriorating growth rather than an overlooked bargain, especially for a leveraged BDC.
Insiders bought $1,077,080 across 4 transactions in the past 90 days with zero sells, a notable buying signal that the engine reads as bullish.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying should continue or hold flat, with no net selling, over the next 2 quarters.
CounterInsider purchases in a BDC can be driven by dividend reinvestment programs or compensation structuring rather than a genuine signal about the underlying loan portfolio's health.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with a -2.9% monthly MA slope, a pattern the engine confirms as a downtrend even though rising on-balance volume shows some accumulation.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average and the MA slope should turn positive over the next 2 quarters if the recovery setup plays out.
CounterRising on-balance volume during a technical downtrend often precedes a trend reversal, so the downtrend label may already be stale.
Revenue is declining at -10% year-over-year and earnings estimates are trending down, both flagged as bear-case factors weighing on the growth outlook.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive and earnings estimates should stabilize over the next 2 quarters.
CounterFor an externally-managed BDC, a temporary revenue decline can reflect portfolio repositioning (rotating out of underperforming loans) rather than a structural deterioration in earnings power.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Crescent Capital BDC screens cheap with notable insider buying support, but declining revenue, downward-trending estimates, and a confirmed technical downtrend argue for a cautious, reduced position despite the early signs of recovery.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.7 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 190% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 8 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
8.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $1,077,080 (0.266% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 1.8 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| beta | 9.5 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 14.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:36d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.5>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.05
Upside
+10.2%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 8.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.05 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 8.7, Value at 7.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.4, Technical at 3.6, and Catalyst at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 11x or PEG exceeds 1.0.
- P2Notable Insider Buying Conviction
Trip ifNet insider transactions turn to more than $500,000 in net selling over the next 90 days.
- P3Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice stays below the 200-day moving average for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P4Declining Revenue And Estimates
Trip ifRevenue growth stays below -5% YoY for 2 more consecutive quarters.