Value
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 7.7 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.88
- ▸Attractively valued
CBK · Why this verdict
Why Commercial Bancgroup (CBK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Commercial Bancgroup is a high-margin regional bank (43% margins, Piotroski 8/9) with positive momentum and an attractive 10.1x forward P/E, but only 5.5% upside to the analyst target and commercial loan concentration, with earnings in 2 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The loan book is concentrated, with 79.1% in commercial loans and 59.0% in commercial real estate. Bear case | Credit quality stays stable and concentration does not rise over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCommercial real estate losses at regional banks can arrive suddenly, and 59.0% leaves little diversification. | ||
The bank earns strong margins of 43% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, with best-in-class margins versus peers. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 35% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThere is no competitive moat, and bank margins compress quickly when funding costs rise. | ||
The bank trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.79, which is cheap relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 12x as earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue growth scores only 4.2/10 and earnings growth 2.4/10, so the cheap multiple may reflect slow growth. | ||
At $32.22 the stock sits only 5.5% below the $34.00 analyst target, so upside on consensus numbers is thin. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets above $37 as earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and a 3-of-4 earnings beat record suggest the market may push the price past current targets. | ||
The loan book is concentrated, with 79.1% in commercial loans and 59.0% in commercial real estate.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Credit quality stays stable and concentration does not rise over 12 months.
CounterCommercial real estate losses at regional banks can arrive suddenly, and 59.0% leaves little diversification.
The bank earns strong margins of 43% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, with best-in-class margins versus peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 35% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or higher over 12 months.
CounterThere is no competitive moat, and bank margins compress quickly when funding costs rise.
The bank trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.79, which is cheap relative to its growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 12x as earnings grow.
CounterRevenue growth scores only 4.2/10 and earnings growth 2.4/10, so the cheap multiple may reflect slow growth.
At $32.22 the stock sits only 5.5% below the $34.00 analyst target, so upside on consensus numbers is thin.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $37 as earnings grow.
CounterRising on-balance volume and a 3-of-4 earnings beat record suggest the market may push the price past current targets.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 43%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
| EPS growth | 2.5 |
Momentum
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
5.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $63,603 (0.014% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 8.5 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.51
Upside
+3.0%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.3; weakest: Technical at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Momentum at 7.8, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Growth at 3.6, and Peer rank at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Margin Quality Bank
Trip ifMargins fall below 30% from the current 43%.
- P2Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 13x from the current 10.1x.
- P3Commercial Loan Concentration
Trip ifCommercial real estate loans fall below 45% of the portfolio from the current 59.0%.
- P4Thin Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $37, more than 14% above the current price.