Value
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.8 |
| p ocf | 8.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 9.0x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
BXMT · Why this verdict
Why Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.1 |
| OBV | 5.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $40,106 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 7.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 0.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.94
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:45d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.10
Upside
-0.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Catalyst at 2.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 6.4, and Value at 5.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.7, Peer rank at 3.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.