Value
6.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.0 |
| PEG | 9.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 30.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.60
BXC · Why this verdict
Why Bluelinx Holdings (BXC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BXC's quality score sits below the engine's floor amid a multi-quarter earnings-miss pattern and confirmed technical downtrend, with only a narrow gap to a favorable risk/reward setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality score of 2.2 sits below the engine's 4.0 minimum floor, driven by cash-burning free cash flow and no identifiable competitive moat. Warnings | Quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterIndustrial distributors often see free cash flow swing negative during inventory build cycles tied to housing demand, which can reverse without reflecting a structural quality problem. | ||
The company has missed consensus estimates in three of its last four quarters, despite one large positive surprise, reflecting inconsistent execution. Earnings | The company should return to meeting or beating estimates in at least one of the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBuilding-products distributors are highly cyclical, so earnings misses may simply track a broader housing and construction slowdown rather than company-specific issues. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average with a -5.6% monthly moving-average slope and falling on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average and OBV should turn positive within the next 12 months for the downtrend to be considered resolved. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe engine's own setup rationale notes MACD is already improving with RSI at a neutral 52, suggesting the downtrend may already be stabilizing. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at the spot price, with a risk/reward ratio of 0.76 falling short of the 1.5 threshold needed for a favorable setup. Warnings | The asymmetry ratio should climb above 1.5 over the next 12 months, either through price decline to a better entry or upside re-rating. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA near-miss asymmetry gate of 0.76 versus 1.5 is not a dramatically unfavorable setup, and could clear the bar with only a modest improvement in either target or price. | ||
The quality score of 2.2 sits below the engine's 4.0 minimum floor, driven by cash-burning free cash flow and no identifiable competitive moat.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months.
CounterIndustrial distributors often see free cash flow swing negative during inventory build cycles tied to housing demand, which can reverse without reflecting a structural quality problem.
The company has missed consensus estimates in three of its last four quarters, despite one large positive surprise, reflecting inconsistent execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to meeting or beating estimates in at least one of the next two quarters.
CounterBuilding-products distributors are highly cyclical, so earnings misses may simply track a broader housing and construction slowdown rather than company-specific issues.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average with a -5.6% monthly moving-average slope and falling on-balance volume.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average and OBV should turn positive within the next 12 months for the downtrend to be considered resolved.
CounterThe engine's own setup rationale notes MACD is already improving with RSI at a neutral 52, suggesting the downtrend may already be stabilizing.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at the spot price, with a risk/reward ratio of 0.76 falling short of the 1.5 threshold needed for a favorable setup.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should climb above 1.5 over the next 12 months, either through price decline to a better entry or upside re-rating.
CounterA near-miss asymmetry gate of 0.76 versus 1.5 is not a dramatically unfavorable setup, and could clear the bar with only a modest improvement in either target or price.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.0 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 9.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 77)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 77 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,872,713 (0.428% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.0 |
| implied vol | 1.1 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:75d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.43%=HEAVY
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.66
Upside
-9.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.40>1.3, MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.5<4.5 outcome against Growth at 6.8 and asymmetric R:R of -0.66.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 6.8, Value at 6.3, and Sentiment at 5.8; the weakest are Quality at 2.6, Insider at 3.7, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Floor Breach
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 (back above the engine's minimum floor) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% (a beat) in the next reported quarter.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifStock price closes back above its 200-day moving average and stays there for more than 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Failed Asymmetry Gate
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 within the next 2 quarters.