Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.7 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.53
BXC · Why this verdict
Why Bluelinx Holdings (BXC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BlueLinx has strong momentum and earnings growth, but quality scores 2.6/10 with no moat, the price is already above the analyst target and 69% of revenue depends on specialty products.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality scores 2.6/10, below the 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and thin margins in distribution. Bear case | Quality score rises above 4.0 as margins recover over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDistributors carry structurally thin margins, so a low quality score may understate a well-run business in a cyclical trough. | ||
At $76.75 the stock is 2.2% above the $75.08 analyst target, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets above the current price as earnings recover. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEarnings growth scores 10/10 and forward P/E of 26.9x implies earnings are set to rise sharply, which could lift targets. | ||
Specialty products make up 69.0% of the business, so results depend on a single product line. Bear case | Specialty share and margins stay stable while housing and repair demand holds. | →Stable |
| CounterSpecialty products are the higher-margin segment, so the concentration may be the source of the profit rather than a risk. | ||
Momentum is 7.3/10 with rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day average, showing buyers in control. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average while volume accumulation continues. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHeavy insider selling of $2.9M and a price above the analyst target suggest the rally may be running ahead of fundamentals. | ||
Business quality scores 2.6/10, below the 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and thin margins in distribution.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 as margins recover over 12 months.
CounterDistributors carry structurally thin margins, so a low quality score may understate a well-run business in a cyclical trough.
At $76.75 the stock is 2.2% above the $75.08 analyst target, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the current price as earnings recover.
CounterEarnings growth scores 10/10 and forward P/E of 26.9x implies earnings are set to rise sharply, which could lift targets.
Specialty products make up 69.0% of the business, so results depend on a single product line.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Specialty share and margins stay stable while housing and repair demand holds.
CounterSpecialty products are the higher-margin segment, so the concentration may be the source of the profit rather than a risk.
Momentum is 7.3/10 with rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day average, showing buyers in control.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average while volume accumulation continues.
CounterHeavy insider selling of $2.9M and a price above the analyst target suggest the rally may be running ahead of fundamentals.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.0 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,872,713 (0.493% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.5 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 9.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸High IV: 92%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:0.49%=HEAVY
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.03
Upside
+0.2%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.43>1.3, MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.0<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 6.9 and asymmetric R:R of 0.03.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.9, Growth at 6.8, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Quality at 2.6, Insider at 3.7, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Minimum
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.6.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $90, more than 15% above the current price.
- P3Specialty Product Concentration
Trip ifSpecialty products share falls below 55% of the business from the current 69.0%.
- P4Strong Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from the current 7.3.