Value
5.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.63
BNY · Why this verdict
Why The Bank of New York Mellon Cor (BNY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Bank of New York Mellon has beaten earnings estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, with surprises ranging from about 5% to 17% and an average beat near 9.9%, and reports again in 11 days. Bull case | The beat streak should extend to a fifth consecutive quarter, with EPS surprise staying above 0% at the upcoming print. | →Stable |
| CounterThe engine's own risk/reward read is negative at the current price, meaning even a continued beat streak may already be priced in with the stock trading near its target. | ||
Shares are trading near their tracked price target and sit just 1.3% below their 52-week high, leaving the stock with limited remaining room to the upside on the current target. Bear case | For the constrained-upside read to ease, the price target itself should be raised, giving the stock fresh room to run over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA continued strong growth profile could justify analysts raising price targets further, reopening upside even after the current target has been reached. | ||
Bank of New York Mellon's growth profile is one of the strongest dimensions in its assessment, reflecting solid revenue and earnings growth trends. Growth | The growth score should remain among the higher-ranked dimensions in the assessment over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG ratio of 1.63 suggests the market may already be paying a full price for that growth rather than getting it at a discount. | ||
The bank maintains strong profitability, with net margins around 29% per the quality assessment. Quality breakdown | Net margins should hold at or above roughly 25% over the next 12 months, sustaining the current strong-margin profile. | →Stable |
| CounterEven with strong margins, the engine's own risk/reward read is negative at the current price, meaning the quality of the business does not by itself justify adding to the position here. | ||
Bank of New York Mellon has beaten earnings estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, with surprises ranging from about 5% to 17% and an average beat near 9.9%, and reports again in 11 days.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to a fifth consecutive quarter, with EPS surprise staying above 0% at the upcoming print.
CounterThe engine's own risk/reward read is negative at the current price, meaning even a continued beat streak may already be priced in with the stock trading near its target.
Shares are trading near their tracked price target and sit just 1.3% below their 52-week high, leaving the stock with limited remaining room to the upside on the current target.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- For the constrained-upside read to ease, the price target itself should be raised, giving the stock fresh room to run over the next 12 months.
CounterA continued strong growth profile could justify analysts raising price targets further, reopening upside even after the current target has been reached.
Bank of New York Mellon's growth profile is one of the strongest dimensions in its assessment, reflecting solid revenue and earnings growth trends.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- The growth score should remain among the higher-ranked dimensions in the assessment over the next 12 months.
CounterA PEG ratio of 1.63 suggests the market may already be paying a full price for that growth rather than getting it at a discount.
The bank maintains strong profitability, with net margins around 29% per the quality assessment.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins should hold at or above roughly 25% over the next 12 months, sustaining the current strong-margin profile.
CounterEven with strong margins, the engine's own risk/reward read is negative at the current price, meaning the quality of the business does not by itself justify adding to the position here.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bank of New York Mellon combines a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, a strong growth profile, and strong ~29% net margins with a stock that is trading near its 52-week high and has already reached its tracked price target, so the near-term setup depends on continued execution and higher price targets rather than a valuation re-rating.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.5 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 6.5 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| beta | 6.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.07
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.88
Upside
-13.1%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.9; weakest: Technical at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.9, Momentum at 7.3, and Insider at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 4.3, Peer rank at 4.6, and Quality at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.88 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the upcoming print in 11 days, ending the current 4-quarter beat streak.
- P2Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifPrice target is raised such that upside to target exceeds 10%, reopening meaningful room above the current level.
- P3Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifGrowth score falls below 4.0, dropping from its current elevated reading and signaling the strong growth profile has faded.
- P4Strong Net Margins
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 20% from the current ~29% level.