Value
9.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 3.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
BMBL · Why this verdict
Why Bumble (BMBL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 3.6x and a PEG ratio of 0.02, among the most attractively valued setups in the data, despite the broader concerns. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should re-rate toward the mid-single digits or higher over the next 12 months if the deep valuation discount narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG ratio this low often signals the market doesn't trust the earnings estimates behind it, especially with revenue already declining 14% year over year. | ||
Insiders have sold $113,036,164 in stock over the past 90 days, equal to 22.72% of market cap, a level of selling the engine's insider gate flags as extreme. Insider breakdown | Insider selling as a share of market cap should fall below 5% over the next 12 months for the extreme-severity flag to clear. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider selling at a company of this size can reflect diversification or estate planning by long-tenured executives rather than a negative signal about forward prospects. | ||
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average with the average sloping down 12.2% over the past 30 days, a confirmed downtrend by the engine's own classification. Bear case | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average with the moving average slope turning positive over the next 12 months for the downtrend to be considered broken. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume alongside the downtrend suggests accumulation is occurring even as the price trend remains negative, which can precede a reversal. | ||
Revenue is declining 14% year over year, one of two value-trap signals flagged alongside the material insider selling, raising the risk that the low valuation is a trap rather than an opportunity. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months for the value-trap concern to resolve. | →Stable |
| CounterA low PEG ratio of 0.02 combined with a 3/4 earnings beat streak suggests the market may already be underestimating a turnaround despite the revenue decline. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 101.2%, evidence of consistent execution despite the broader concerns. Earnings | The beat streak should extend to 4 of 5 quarters with average surprise staying positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent miss came in at -46.18%, the largest surprise of any quarter, showing the beat streak is not without significant volatility. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 3.6x and a PEG ratio of 0.02, among the most attractively valued setups in the data, despite the broader concerns.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should re-rate toward the mid-single digits or higher over the next 12 months if the deep valuation discount narrows.
CounterA PEG ratio this low often signals the market doesn't trust the earnings estimates behind it, especially with revenue already declining 14% year over year.
Insiders have sold $113,036,164 in stock over the past 90 days, equal to 22.72% of market cap, a level of selling the engine's insider gate flags as extreme.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling as a share of market cap should fall below 5% over the next 12 months for the extreme-severity flag to clear.
CounterInsider selling at a company of this size can reflect diversification or estate planning by long-tenured executives rather than a negative signal about forward prospects.
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average with the average sloping down 12.2% over the past 30 days, a confirmed downtrend by the engine's own classification.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average with the moving average slope turning positive over the next 12 months for the downtrend to be considered broken.
CounterRising on-balance volume alongside the downtrend suggests accumulation is occurring even as the price trend remains negative, which can precede a reversal.
Revenue is declining 14% year over year, one of two value-trap signals flagged alongside the material insider selling, raising the risk that the low valuation is a trap rather than an opportunity.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive over the next 12 months for the value-trap concern to resolve.
CounterA low PEG ratio of 0.02 combined with a 3/4 earnings beat streak suggests the market may already be underestimating a turnaround despite the revenue decline.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 101.2%, evidence of consistent execution despite the broader concerns.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to 4 of 5 quarters with average surprise staying positive over the next 12 months.
CounterThe most recent miss came in at -46.18%, the largest surprise of any quarter, showing the beat streak is not without significant volatility.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bumble trades at a deeply discounted valuation with a strong earnings beat streak, but a confirmed downtrend, extreme insider selling, and declining revenue raise the risk that the cheap price reflects a genuine value trap rather than an opportunity.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 9.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 25%, FCF yield 48.8%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 11 (fail)
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -14%
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $113,036,164 (23.509% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.5 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.8 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸High IV: 100%
- ▸Above max pain $1
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- INSIDER:23.51%=EXTREME
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.73
Upside
+25.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 29d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -65% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.8, Catalyst at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.9, and Technical at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Deep Discount
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 8x from the current 3.6x as the valuation discount narrows.
- P2Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a share of market cap falls below 5% from the current 22.72%.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Below 200ma
Trip ifPrice reclaims the 200-day moving average with the moving average slope rising above 0%.
- P4Declining Revenue Value Trap Signal
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings beat count falls below 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.