Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.68
BKR · Why this verdict
Why Baker Hughes (BKR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Baker Hughes has beaten earnings estimates four quarters in a row, converts cash well and has 13.8% upside to the analyst target, but revenue is declining, there is no moat and momentum is weak ahead of earnings in 3 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Baker Hughes has beaten EPS estimates in all four recent quarters, with an average surprise of 18.9%, most recently 31.5% in July 2026. Earnings | EPS surprise stays positive in the report due in 3 days and the following quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates were lowered before the last quarters (for example $0.49 in two of them), so big beats may reflect low bars, and the print in 3 days is a binary event. | ||
The price of $55.86 sits 13.8% below the $63.56 analyst target, a reward-to-risk of 2.3 against 6.0% downside. Upside pct | Price closes much of the gap to $63.56 within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTargets for oilfield-equipment names follow the energy cycle, and declining revenue could force cuts. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 143% of net income, although the business has no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is only 4.4/10 on the engine's scale and gross margin scores 0.7/10, so the cash strength may not be durable. | ||
Revenue is declining 2% and the growth score is 1.5/10, ranking near the bottom among peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive within the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFour straight beats and a 143% cash conversion suggest earnings power is stronger than the top line indicates. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising 2.4% over 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend, with weak momentum of 3.7/10 and falling on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims its 200-day average and momentum recovers above 4.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution, which can turn a pullback into a downtrend. | ||
Baker Hughes has beaten EPS estimates in all four recent quarters, with an average surprise of 18.9%, most recently 31.5% in July 2026.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive in the report due in 3 days and the following quarters.
CounterEstimates were lowered before the last quarters (for example $0.49 in two of them), so big beats may reflect low bars, and the print in 3 days is a binary event.
The price of $55.86 sits 13.8% below the $63.56 analyst target, a reward-to-risk of 2.3 against 6.0% downside.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price closes much of the gap to $63.56 within 12 months.
CounterTargets for oilfield-equipment names follow the energy cycle, and declining revenue could force cuts.
Cash conversion is excellent at 143% of net income, although the business has no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over the next four quarters.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is only 4.4/10 on the engine's scale and gross margin scores 0.7/10, so the cash strength may not be durable.
Revenue is declining 2% and the growth score is 1.5/10, ranking near the bottom among peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive within the next four quarters.
CounterFour straight beats and a 143% cash conversion suggest earnings power is stronger than the top line indicates.
The stock is below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising 2.4% over 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend, with weak momentum of 3.7/10 and falling on-balance volume.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims its 200-day average and momentum recovers above 4.5.
CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution, which can turn a pullback into a downtrend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.5 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.7 |
| Op margin | 5.1 |
| Net margin | 5.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| FCF quality | 9.8 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 143% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.9 |
| EPS growth | 1.2 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.6 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 30%
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
Technical
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.37
Upside
+16.9%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5. Top dim: Catalyst at 7.5; weakest: Growth at 1.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.3, and Technical at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 1.5, Peer rank at 4.8, and Momentum at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $58 from the current $63.56.
- P3Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 80% of net income from the current 143%.
- P4Declining Revenue Weak Growth
Trip ifRevenue declines more than 5% YoY from the current -2%.
- P5Pullback In Rising Trend
Trip ifThe 200-day average slope falls below 0% per 30 days from the current +2.4%.