Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 9.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.55
- ▸Attractively valued
BHRB · Why this verdict
Why Burke & Herbert Financial Servi (BHRB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A positive news modifier upgraded the recommendation path from a hold to a strong-buy-wait stance, reflecting incrementally favorable recent news flow. Warnings | The news modifier should remain positive or improve further over the next 12 months, supporting the upgraded stance. | →Stable |
| CounterA one-notch news modifier is a relatively small, potentially transient adjustment that could reverse on the next news cycle. | ||
The bank screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 8.0x and a PEG of 0.55, showing an attractive P/E and superior ROE relative to peers. Valuation breakdown | The value score should remain above 6.0 and the peer-relative value ranking should stay favorable over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap multiple in regional banking can also reflect the market discounting credit-cycle or rate-sensitivity risk rather than a pure mispricing. | ||
The bank has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and the engine notes earnings estimates are trending up, with a catalyst-driven edge tied to the upcoming report in 19 days. Bull case | The beat rate should hold at 3 of 4 or better and estimate revisions should continue trending upward over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA single miss in the most recent quarter (-0.97% surprise) could signal the beat streak is already showing early cracks. | ||
The stock is trading near its 52-week high (4.8% away) with the prior valuation target already reached, and the asymmetry ratio fails the engine's gate at -1.08. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive above 1.0 and the upside estimate should improve above 0% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRising earnings estimates and a strong momentum score of 7.0 could still support further price appreciation even against a currently unfavorable modeled asymmetry ratio. | ||
Insiders have been net buyers, purchasing $1,082,812 (0.077% of market cap) over 90 days across 7 transactions against just $70,395 of selling, generating a bullish insider signal. Insider transaction read | Insider buying should continue to outpace selling over the next 12 months to sustain the bullish signal. | →Stable |
| CounterAt just 0.077% of market cap, the buying is modest in scale and may not carry strong predictive weight on its own. | ||
A positive news modifier upgraded the recommendation path from a hold to a strong-buy-wait stance, reflecting incrementally favorable recent news flow.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The news modifier should remain positive or improve further over the next 12 months, supporting the upgraded stance.
CounterA one-notch news modifier is a relatively small, potentially transient adjustment that could reverse on the next news cycle.
The bank screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 8.0x and a PEG of 0.55, showing an attractive P/E and superior ROE relative to peers.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should remain above 6.0 and the peer-relative value ranking should stay favorable over the next 12 months.
CounterA cheap multiple in regional banking can also reflect the market discounting credit-cycle or rate-sensitivity risk rather than a pure mispricing.
The bank has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and the engine notes earnings estimates are trending up, with a catalyst-driven edge tied to the upcoming report in 19 days.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat rate should hold at 3 of 4 or better and estimate revisions should continue trending upward over the next 12 months.
CounterA single miss in the most recent quarter (-0.97% surprise) could signal the beat streak is already showing early cracks.
The stock is trading near its 52-week high (4.8% away) with the prior valuation target already reached, and the asymmetry ratio fails the engine's gate at -1.08.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive above 1.0 and the upside estimate should improve above 0% over the next 12 months.
CounterRising earnings estimates and a strong momentum score of 7.0 could still support further price appreciation even against a currently unfavorable modeled asymmetry ratio.
Insiders have been net buyers, purchasing $1,082,812 (0.077% of market cap) over 90 days across 7 transactions against just $70,395 of selling, generating a bullish insider signal.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider buying should continue to outpace selling over the next 12 months to sustain the bullish signal.
CounterAt just 0.077% of market cap, the buying is modest in scale and may not carry strong predictive weight on its own.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BHRB combines an attractive valuation, a solid earnings beat streak, and a recent positive news-driven upgrade, but a negative modeled asymmetry near its 52-week high tempers the setup even as insiders have been modest net buyers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
4.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 4.9 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 7.2 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $1,082,812 (0.077% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.4 |
| support resistance | 5.1 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 3.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.45
Upside
-9.6%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 16d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1; weakest: Growth at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1, Value at 8.0, and Insider at 7.9; the weakest are Growth at 4.1, Momentum at 4.2, and Peer rank at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive News Modifier Upgrade
Trip ifNews modifier falls to -1 or below from the current +1, reverting the recommendation back toward a hold stance.
- P2Attractive Valuation Vs Peers
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 from the current 7.8, indicating the valuation discount has closed.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak With Rising Estimates
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 2 of the next 4 quarters, down from 3 of the last 4.
- P4Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.0 from the current -1.08.
- P5Modest Insider Buying Bullish Signal
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $200,000 over a 90-day period, reversing the current bullish signal.