Value
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.44
- ▸Attractively valued
BHB · Why this verdict
Why Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 9.9x and a PEG of 0.44, alongside strong growth of 26% year-over-year. Valuation breakdown | The value score should remain above 7.0 and revenue growth should stay above 15% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG below 0.5 paired with a bank stock can also reflect the market pricing in credit-cycle risk rather than a pure mispricing of growth. | ||
The engine flags a yield trap, meaning the dividend yield appears attractive but is assessed as unsafe, even though operating and net margins score at the maximum on the engine's scale. Catalyst breakdown | The yield-trap warning should clear as dividend safety improves over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong margins and a perfect earnings beat streak suggest underlying cash generation may support the payout better than the yield-trap flag implies. | ||
The bank has beaten earnings in all of the last 4 quarters with a 6.0% average surprise, and the engine identifies an upcoming earnings catalyst 17 days out. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should continue for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterConsistent small beats can reflect deliberately conservative guidance rather than accelerating fundamental strength, and could compress once expectations catch up. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior valuation target, leaving just a -14.2% upside estimate, with the asymmetry ratio failing the engine's gate at -1.71. Engine gate (failed) | The upside estimate should turn positive above 5% over the next 12 months if the target resets higher. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued strong growth and a perfect beat streak could still justify raising the price target even without a change in the stock's current valuation multiple. | ||
Insiders generated a bullish signal via a single purchase of $26,357 (0.004% of market cap), the only insider transaction in the past 90 days. Insider transaction read | Insider buying activity should continue or increase in dollar terms over the next 12 months to reinforce the bullish signal. | →Stable |
| CounterA single transaction representing 0.004% of market cap is too small to carry meaningful statistical weight as a conviction signal. | ||
The bank screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 9.9x and a PEG of 0.44, alongside strong growth of 26% year-over-year.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should remain above 7.0 and revenue growth should stay above 15% over the next 12 months.
CounterA PEG below 0.5 paired with a bank stock can also reflect the market pricing in credit-cycle risk rather than a pure mispricing of growth.
The engine flags a yield trap, meaning the dividend yield appears attractive but is assessed as unsafe, even though operating and net margins score at the maximum on the engine's scale.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The yield-trap warning should clear as dividend safety improves over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong margins and a perfect earnings beat streak suggest underlying cash generation may support the payout better than the yield-trap flag implies.
The bank has beaten earnings in all of the last 4 quarters with a 6.0% average surprise, and the engine identifies an upcoming earnings catalyst 17 days out.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters over the next 12 months.
CounterConsistent small beats can reflect deliberately conservative guidance rather than accelerating fundamental strength, and could compress once expectations catch up.
The stock has already reached its prior valuation target, leaving just a -14.2% upside estimate, with the asymmetry ratio failing the engine's gate at -1.71.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The upside estimate should turn positive above 5% over the next 12 months if the target resets higher.
CounterContinued strong growth and a perfect beat streak could still justify raising the price target even without a change in the stock's current valuation multiple.
Insiders generated a bullish signal via a single purchase of $26,357 (0.004% of market cap), the only insider transaction in the past 90 days.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider buying activity should continue or increase in dollar terms over the next 12 months to reinforce the bullish signal.
CounterA single transaction representing 0.004% of market cap is too small to carry meaningful statistical weight as a conviction signal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BHB combines an attractive valuation, strong growth, and a perfect earnings beat streak, but the stock has already reached its prior target with a negative modeled asymmetry and a flagged yield trap tempering the setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.9 |
| EPS growth | 6.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $26,357 (0.004% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.9 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
| beta | 9.5 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.5 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
- ▸Dividend: 3.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.34
Upside
-13.3%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 14d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.9; weakest: Momentum at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Growth at 7.7, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Peer rank at 4.8, and Quality at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation With Strong Growth
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 from the current 8.9, indicating the valuation discount has closed.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak With Catalyst
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the current 4-quarter streak.
- P3Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifUpside estimate rises above 5% from the current -14.2%.
- P4Yield Trap Warning Despite Strong Margins
Trip ifDividend safety score rises above 7.0 from the current 4.8, clearing the yield-trap warning.
- P5Negligible Insider Buying Bullish Signal
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $50,000 over a 90-day period, reversing the current bullish signal.