Value
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.0 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 8.8 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.70
- ▸Attractively valued
BFC · Why this verdict
Why Bank First (BFC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bank First is an attractively valued, fast-growing regional bank with strong margins, but the price is 6.0% above the analyst target, earnings are volatile and real estate loans are 74.1% of the loan portfolio.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Real estate loans make up 74.1% of the loan portfolio, a high concentration risk. Bear case | Real estate share of loans falls below 74% with credit losses staying contained. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStrong margins of 36% and dividend safety of 9/10 give a buffer against credit losses. | ||
Bank First looks attractively valued at a forward P/E of 12.2x and a PEG of 0.70. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 14x while earnings continue to grow. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue data diverges by 15% to 25% between sources, so the growth behind the low PEG may be overstated. | ||
Growth is strong at 48% YoY, ranking among the industry leaders, with a growth score of 7.8/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA 48% jump may reflect an acquisition or the data divergence between sources rather than organic growth. | ||
The price of $147.34 is 6.0% above the $138.55 analyst target, giving a negative reward-to-risk of -0.43 with 13.8% downside. Upside pct | Analyst targets rise above $155 or the price reverts toward the target within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light (2.0 analysts), so a single revision can move the target sharply. | ||
Earnings alternate between beats and misses (two each), including a 9.6% miss in October 2026 and an average surprise of -2.55%. Earnings | EPS beats in the report due in January 2027 and the average surprise turns positive. | →Stable |
| CounterMisses of 9.6% and 18.5% against beats of 7.5% and 10.5% show a pattern of volatility that could continue. | ||
Real estate loans make up 74.1% of the loan portfolio, a high concentration risk.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Real estate share of loans falls below 74% with credit losses staying contained.
CounterStrong margins of 36% and dividend safety of 9/10 give a buffer against credit losses.
Bank First looks attractively valued at a forward P/E of 12.2x and a PEG of 0.70.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 14x while earnings continue to grow.
CounterRevenue data diverges by 15% to 25% between sources, so the growth behind the low PEG may be overstated.
Growth is strong at 48% YoY, ranking among the industry leaders, with a growth score of 7.8/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over the next four quarters.
CounterA 48% jump may reflect an acquisition or the data divergence between sources rather than organic growth.
The price of $147.34 is 6.0% above the $138.55 analyst target, giving a negative reward-to-risk of -0.43 with 13.8% downside.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise above $155 or the price reverts toward the target within 12 months.
CounterCoverage is light (2.0 analysts), so a single revision can move the target sharply.
Earnings alternate between beats and misses (two each), including a 9.6% miss in October 2026 and an average surprise of -2.55%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats in the report due in January 2027 and the average surprise turns positive.
CounterMisses of 9.6% and 18.5% against beats of 7.5% and 10.5% show a pattern of volatility that could continue.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 48% YoY
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 5.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $126,756 (0.008% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.5 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 0.2 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.7 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.45
Upside
-6.3%
Downside
14.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.8; weakest: Catalyst at 4.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Growth at 7.8, and Insider at 6.6; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.7, Technical at 5.2, and Peer rank at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 12.2x.
- P2Industry Growth Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 48%.
- P3Analyst Target Exceeded
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $160 from the current $138.55.
- P4Volatile Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise stays above 0% for 3 consecutive quarters.
- P5Real Estate Loan Concentration
Trip ifReal estate loans exceed 80% of the loan portfolio from the current 74.1%.